Battery tech progressing at a rapid pace

[AliRafiee]

While I agree we can simply say "Lithuim-Ion in everything", I think that's too simplistic. Battery Tech for cars, taken as a whole (cell chemistry, energy density (both volumetric and weight), cell design, packaging, etc.) has been "improving" at roughly 8-10% per year for over a decade. Most of the improvements are small, but taken together, batteries are quite a bit better now than they were in the mid-teens. Solid State, though it seems to be quantum leap, is really part of this overall picture. IMHO, the 2 thresholds that we need to cross to make this viable for "everyone" are 350 true EPA range (obv. lower in winter) and 20 minute avg charging. When we cross those 2 thresholds, we'll see the uptake accelerate. I figure that's about 2 years away, and hopefully our charging infrastructure will have caught up by then. I don't think its all about solid state, or any other specific technology - vast majority of people don't care. Whatever tech or combination of tech that gets us there (that doesn't result $75K+ vehicle prices) is what we need.

I think we need to get charging time down to about 5 minutes for mass adoption. Much like filling up a gas tank.

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[johnmark]

I think we need to get charging time down to about 5 minutes for mass adoption. Much like filling up a gas tank.

For sure, but getting to 15-20 minutes would be pretty sweet and get us "close enough" for the next adoption wave. Something we can probably achieve in the next 5 years.

 

[johnmark]

Bill Gates and VW are the big investors in the company.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/QuantumScape

Imagine if Google sunk their $2 billion of funny money into this, instead of useless f***ing waymo.

 

[dbsb3233]

I think we need to get charging time down to about 5 minutes for mass adoption. Much like filling up a gas tank.

I don't think that's ever likely to happen. Filling, say, 50kWh in 5 minutes would take 600kW. And that's the average rate.

While that's not impossible (it's like Tesla semi charging), I think that's highly impractical for personal cars that don't just drive hub-to-hub like a Tesla semi. Personal cars require many thousands of charging locations spread to every corner of the country. That's likely just too difficult, especially at the high volume required to charge 100's of million of EVs.

I don't see that happening before true robotaxis (next decade?) start displacing personal car ownership at potentially serious rates.

 

[AliRafiee]

I don't think that's ever likely to happen. Filling, say, 50kWh in 5 minutes would take 600kW. And that's the average rate.

While that's not impossible (it's like Tesla semi charging), I think that's highly impractical for personal cars that don't just drive hub-to-hub like a Tesla semi. Personal cars require many thousands of charging locations spread to every corner of the country. That's likely just too difficult, especially at the high volume required to charge 100's of million of EVs.

I don't see that happening before true robotaxis (next decade?) start displacing personal car ownership at potentially serious rates.

It’s either that or Dilithium crystals.

 

[superdave80]

I think the real way to get mass adoption isn't in better batteries/faster charging, it's if we can get viable road inductive charging. If we can get that to work, the battery won't matter.

 

[johnmark]

Talk about your moonshots...

 

[azerik]

I think the real way to get mass adoption isn't in better batteries/faster charging, it's if we can get viable road inductive charging. If we can get that to work, the battery won't matter.

Trolley 2.0
Every year big claims. The most I see this doing in the next 10 years is ending p in phones and tablets. You can charge your phone from 5 to 95% in 8 seconds! With this special charger that's $1k. Just look at USB-c and T-bolt and all the claims. Yeah it can hit speeds, for a few seconds and cost 5 times what you think it should. See Apple's $130 usb-c cable here.
These kind of companies either get bought and killed off by a competitor (that could be their hope) or get stuffed into the back of a dark warehouse and left to age. Some just run out of money before either happens sadly.

 

[shelnian]

I've been watching this company. They appear to be close to large scale production. https://lyten.com/lyten-achieves-ma...um-sulfur-batteries-at-greater-than-90-yield/

 

[superdave80]

The most I see this doing in the next 10 years is ending p in phones and tablets.

It's been in phones and tablets for several years now, so not the boldest of predictions...

 

[azerik]

It's been in phones and tablets for several years now, so not the boldest of predictions...

ok, so the most I see is this continuing for the next 10 years.

 

[Thunderbuck]

I think we need to get charging time down to about 5 minutes for mass adoption. Much like filling up a gas tank.

I'd call it a "nice to have", especially if you can drive a reliable 300 miles between charging stops (you need a break sometime, right?)

The great thing about charging is that it's WAY more flexible than petro refueling. You can put at least an L2 charger just about anywhere and we'll see them proliferate all over the place in the coming years. If wireless charging gains traction you might get the opportunity to add a kWh or two at nearly any stop.

 

[azerik]

I wonder how many of those public l2 chargers on plugshare (not the ones at store but peoples houses) actually ever got used. I would just feel odd parking in someone's driveway and topping off for oh say 6 hours and not paying or something. The speed of L2 doesn't make me feel like a thousand extra l2 chargers around my city (especially Chargepoint/blink etc where per KW prices are nearly DCFC and only cost you 10 times longer) are going to spread adoption. Volta has seen that from most of their constantly broken 'stations' at WholeFoods and Movie theaters. I'd have to say that every other time I tried to use an openly public L2 charger it was broke. However if the charger required a key (ClipperCreek does this, I've used it at Lowell Observatory), card or at least an account in an app they worked fine (ChargePoint at Pullman Airport).

Seeing as the collective 'we' of EV drivers understand that the J17772 connector is our lifeline with these L2 chargers it baffles me how so many are broken. If I had to guess it'd be the little tiny switch inside the handle that clicks when plugged in. We're hoping for mass adoption, I think. Which means even more inattentive L2 charger users on the way.

 

[Mirak]

IMHO, the 2 thresholds that we need to cross to make this viable for "everyone" are 350 true EPA range (obv. lower in winter) and 20 minute avg charging.

Mostly agree with your first two thresholds (probably need to do a bit better than 20mins), but there is a third: cost. Solid State isn't affordable yet, and actually needs to become more affordable than current battery tech to facilitate mass adoption.

Also one more nit - you added a qualifier for "obviously lower range in winter" - but Solid State evidently promises to mostly fix that problem, too.

 

[jeffMachE]

Mostly agree with your first two thresholds (probably need to do a bit better than 20mins), but there is a third: cost. Solid State isn't affordable yet, and actually needs to become more affordable than current battery tech to facilitate mass adoption.

Also one more nit - you added a qualifier for "obviously lower range in winter" - but Solid State evidently promises to mostly fix that problem, too.

Tried to address the price issue in my first post, but yes, need a $45K vehicle with 350 range and 20 minute charge.

Winter issue is more about keeping the interior warm than battery tech. Heating the car in the winter will always reduce range, proportional to how much you have to heat the car (e.g. outside temp). Some battery tech is better than others at keeping full charge in colder weather, but all heating will still consume kWh and thus reduce range.

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