Battery tech progressing at a rapid pace

[Mach1E]

And it's ironic what people consider "mistakes". Most legacy automakers are making good profits from their ICE vehicles and are losing big money on their EVs (like Ford). Yet some consider not building even more EVs a "mistake".

Seems to me Toyota holding off on money-losing EVs has them laughing all the way to the bank.

Sometimes you’re the “early worm” and not the bird. ?

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[Phil Martin]

I feel like I have been reading articles like this since I bought my Leaf back in 2016, yet in reality all we have seen is LFP rollout to lower trims. Not saying we arent close, but also saying all these companies are looking for press and funding.

That's because it's not rapidly progressing, the revolution happened decades ago in the early 90's, since then it's just been evolving. But marketing will try and make us think otherwise.

 

[bpbailey]

You say corporate greed like it’s not supposed to be that way.

Literally the purpose of a corporation is to make profits for shareholders. If they weren’t greedy, they would be failing at their purpose.

I hate to break it to you, Tesla is just as greedy as Toyota. If they weren’t, I don’t think they would be selling carbon credits to other manufacturers so they can pollute more.

On a related note, I hope 20 years from now we are laughing because people thought batteries were “the future” because we found a better fuel source.

I have no argument that the essence of capitalism is to make a profit. If Tesla hadn't made the corporate decisions that it made, it would be bankrupt and the EV industry would be in shambles. No, my argument is that profit notwithstanding, industry-leading corporations (like Toyota) have a moral obligation to society to temper profiteering with an eye on what is best for humanity. There is, ultimately, tremendous long-term profit that will be made in the EV industry. Toyota could have positioned itself for long-term profits, while still showing healthy returns in the short-term, by pushing the envelope on development of EVs and EV infrastructure. If they had done so, their profits over the next 20 years would probably have been larger than what they will realize with their current corporate strategy and humanity would have been the benefactor of those actions.

Yes, there will be a better alternative to batteries some day. That doesn't mean that we should sit on our thumbs and wait for the energy messiah.

 

[21st Century Pony]

No, I do not need a break every 2 hours which is what my current road trip is like in an EV. In an ICE, I don't beed a break until after my 10-12 hours of driving is done. It's fill up every 600 miles for 5-10 minutes and get back on the road.

I note that sitting nearly motionless in a very small cabin for up to 12 hours is flat unhealthy.

Not that I haven't ever done such drives... but then again, certain actions throughout my life in its early stages did not focus on keeping myself in optimal health, to say the least

My point here is "just because we can, doesn't mean we necessarily should".

 

[Mach1E]

I have no argument that the essence of capitalism is to make a profit. If Tesla hadn't made the corporate decisions that it made, it would be bankrupt and the EV industry would be in shambles. No, my argument is that profit notwithstanding, industry-leading corporations (like Toyota) have a moral obligation to society to temper profiteering with an eye on what is best for humanity. There is, ultimately, tremendous long-term profit that will be made in the EV industry. Toyota could have positioned itself for long-term profits, while still showing healthy returns in the short-term, by pushing the envelope on development of EVs and EV infrastructure. If they had done so, their profits over the next 20 years would probably have been larger than what they will realize with their current corporate strategy and humanity would have been the benefactor of those actions.

Yes, there will be a better alternative to batteries some day. That doesn't mean that we should sit on our thumbs and wait for the energy messiah.

Outside of following the law, companies have zero moral obligation to society.

If they have tricked you into thinking they do, that’s just social signaling and clever marketing.

Now if you want to start a company to better society and the world……that’s exactly what non-profits are for. I suggest you donate and volunteer with some. I do. ?

 

[mkhuffman]

Every day I see a new article about a breakthrough battery technology. And it is so tiring, and such BS. In reality, all improvements are incremental, and nobody has delivered a "breakthrough" or "game changing" technology for our BEVs. I think we can expect gradual improvements over the next decades, gradually getting faster charging, longer range, and lower cost.

So just today, this is on my Microsoft Start home page:

? ? ? ?

 

[dbsb3233]

Every day I see a new article about a breakthrough battery technology. And it is so tiring, and such BS. In reality, all improvements are incremental, and nobody has delivered a "breakthrough" or "game changing" technology for our BEVs. I think we can expect gradual improvements over the next decades, gradually getting faster charging, longer range, and lower cost.

So just today, this is on my Microsoft Start home page:

? ? ? ?

It's the shotgun approach. Keep trying a whole bunch of different things and hope one pans out. LFP could be counted as one of those that has panned out to provide *some* net improvement (although like most things, it comes with trade-offs).

And we do seem we have more shotguns doing research now given the potential profits to be had from millions of EVs (and other products). So there probably will be faster progress than there was 3-4 decades ago.

BUT, people also need to temper their expectation on the timelines. These things take many years. The next quantum leap could be in 5 years, it could be in 15 years. We also have social media, YouTube, etc touting every shotgun pellet now, which makes it deceiving. Gotta take them all with a grain of salt.

 

[Roomba]

Disclaimer: I didn't read the entire thread, just the first post because I need to head out right now. Just pulled out my laptop to check up on the news .

Quantumscape isn't a true SSB though. I did a little looking and they still use powder in it's electrolyte. My understanding is that SSB use solid electrolyte instead.

However, Ford is partnered with Solid Power to produce a true SSB. Other partnerships include BMW, Hyundai and SK ON

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4673996-solid-power-inc-sldp-q4-2023-earnings-call-transcript

"With Ford, we continue to execute on our joint development agreement and are committed to continuing execution at a high level for this valued partner. We have shipped electrolyte to Ford and have received positive initial feedback. In 2024, we are both setting targets and exploring ways to collaborate even more closely as we continue to advance our technologies."

"Our first confirmation, yes, those A1s did go to BMW last year. And we actually worked on A2 design last year. And when BMW came in with their requirements for the demo car this year, we quickly realized we need to pivot, take the learnings from A1, which have been substantial, both at BMW as well as within Solid Power, apply them to the design that we have for A2 and then drive to execution on that design by late this year is the current scheduling for that design and initial production"

EDIT: I need to head out right about..... now

 

[david_quick]

I started watching SS batteries professionally when they were just in the lab research phase. That was in 2012. My employer was very interested in high energy density secondary electrical storage that was stable and safe for use in confined environments. Every year I’ve heard SSBs are just around the corner.

In 2022 I funded an applications research project from my program research budget but the principal investigator could not obtain any samples and wound up just writing a paper on what the state of the technology was. It was not pretty.

Bottom line won’t see anything in commercial products like cars until 2030 or later. But I’m not holding my breath.

 

[ChehRob]

I suspect battery improvements and prices of about $50 per kWhs (adjusted for inflation) will merit any used EV in good condition a new battery pack after 2030.

 

[johnmark]

That's because it's not rapidly progressing, the revolution happened decades ago in the early 90's, since then it's just been evolving. But marketing will try and make us think otherwise.

I don't think that's true. Materials science is a long game. While the foundational science and tech is from the 90s and early 2000s, the ability to scale and manufacture goods that meet customer demands and price points takes a lot of time and effort. The advances made right now are not related to core tech, but rather with the manufacturing process. That's still substantial. Manufacturing at scale is no joke and takes a massive engineering effort. We're at the last mile and sometimes the last mile takes longer than the previous 99 miles.

 

[dbsb3233]

I suspect battery improvements and prices of about $50 per kWhs (adjusted for inflation) will merit any used EV in good condition a new battery pack after 2030.

My guess is that probably won't be very commonplace. Li-Ion cells are still twice that price (although LFP is somewhat less), and the price curve has mostly leveled off. Even if cell prices do cut in half by then, that's just the cells, not the rest of the pack. And not the labor to replace it. I would guess we're still talking $10k+ even then, unless it's a small car/small pack.

Plus by the time a car gets that old, buyers start wanting the latest features and styles.

I think the more likely scenario is most being relegated to diminished used car status, like any other aging car. That is, assuming the degraded batteries just result in 20%, 30%, 40% less range, not fall off the cliff and become effectively unusable like old cell phone batteries sometimes do.

 

[ChehRob]

7-10 years is a long time - esp in technology. Another improvement would be our current MMEs charging at 150 amps until 90%. A $50-60K car can bear the $5-10K upgrade.

 

[dbsb3233]

7-10 years is a long time - esp in technology. Another improvement would be our current MMEs charging at 150 amps until 90%. A $50-60K car can bear the $5-10K upgrade.

A $50k-$60k car, yes. An 8yo MME with 100k miles will be more like a $15k car though. Our 3yo ones are already down to around $30k.

 

[ChehRob]

My sister's almost 20 year old Honda was hit by a truck (at very low speed), economically totaled, but she got over $8000 for it.

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