Battery tech progressing at a rapid pace

[dbsb3233]

Not trying to pick a fight, but *my* threshold is 3-4 hours driving before I want to stop and at least stretch my back and legs. @~70 mph, that means 240-280 miles. I'm never driving 400 miles without a stop. And if I'm going to stop, then I'm going to charge the car.

But that's the problem... stops and charges are not always synonymous. All charges are stops, but not all stops are charges. People may still choose to stop at a bathroom or store or restaurant or tourist spot, but many don't have DCFC.

We try to overlap those on most drives, of course, but that doesn't always work. Sometimes there are things we want to do or see off the interstate that would take more range because there's not chargers there (like say, Bryce Canyon in Utah).

Point being, range is needed for more than just bathroom breaks, even though we often tie it to that.

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[spgordon57]

This is an interesting debate point. I agree and disagree at the same time. Agree because people have a mental model of ICE that they try to apply to EV's, and that makes Joe/Jane Average nervous. Disagree because (with the huge caveat of having garage to charge in) when people actually use an EV, they don't need anything near 400 miles. 2 big exceptions are road trips and towing. Road trip EV charging is rocky now, but it's improving pretty rapidly (and will accelerate due to both Tesla opening up and Nevi stations coming on-line). I'm hopeful (not predicting, but hopeful) that road trip EV charging will become fairly mundane in the next 2-3 years.

I have no idea how the towing question will be answered.

But the biggest issue I have no clue about is how to accommodate people who don't have a dedicated garage to charge in. That could be the real tipping point vs. anything else we are debating. Does a 400 mile range EV eliminate this problem? Maybe. But if 400 eliminates the problem, I'd profer that 350 does as well.

(BTW, I'm curious - I really don't know - what percentage of people actually drive long distances. I'm not interested in anecdotes; I'd like to see real data. Literally if you take a random sample of 1000 drivers, what percentage of them have driven more than 200 miles in a day in the previous 12 months.)

Road tripping is kind of a chicken/egg thing. Here in the S.F. Bay Area where EVs are popular, (anecdotally) I think more would take EVs on long road trips more often if they were confident they could get to places like Lake Tahoe (in the winter) or to LA w/o having to stop for charging. There is already a lot of charging capacity along these routes but dependability is sketchy and when a gas car can go 500+ miles on a full tank it’s not easy to justify taking an EV. More and better charging (especially for those w/o their own garage), plus longer EV range at an affordable price will go a long way. My sense is that tipping point is about 5 years out.

 

[SpaceEVDriver]

(BTW, I'm curious - I really don't know - what percentage of people actually drive long distances. I'm not interested in anecdotes; I'd like to see real data. Literally if you take a random sample of 1000 drivers, what percentage of them have driven more than 200 miles in a day in the previous 12 months.)

This answers a slightly different question (how many trips were of what distance). Your question is probably significantly less than this (people who travel long distances probably do so multiple times).

From the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, the total number of trips from 1 January 2019 to 9 March 2024 was ~2.43e12. Trips less than 50 miles made up 97% of all trips taken. These trips were made by approximately 78% of the population.


Percent of trips of the following distances:

< 1 mile	1-3 miles	3-5 miles	5-10 miles	10-25 miles	25-50 miles	50-100 miles	100-250 miles	250-500 miles	500+ miles
26.31%	24.10%	12.12%	15.43%	14.78%	4.73%	1.59%	0.69%	0.15%	0.11%

 

[dbsb3233]

One of the problems with getting Americans to go back to more specialized vehicles (like a short range EV for commuting but not longer needs) is that they've gotten used to the opposite. SUVs are popular because of their utility to handle so many different use cases well. Same with supercab pickups that are basically SUVs with a bed.

 

[azerik]

It's the shotgun approach. Keep trying a whole bunch of different things and hope one pans out.

It's also 20 'news sources' rehashing the same crap story, empty white paper, or trending term, several times a week in different ways in order to drive click throughs and video viewing time. Now there's bots firing up 'new dedicated websites' just for this. In order to drive the click through and or hijack someone (financially or mentally, looking at you tiktok/insta). So far of the stories I've dug into few had any shown value other than 'X manufacture is in talks with this tech company to put in vehicles SOON'. Show me the tech being used somewhere other than small computing because it doesn't translate to EV's in reality. In white papers they may expand the story and base the tech on other things that doesn't exist like charging. Or charging anything remotely close to 75kW, let alone the real performance that's needed to move a 5000 lb vehicle. I gave up on theoretical performance numbers years ago and wait to see the tech in hand, or at least in MKBHD's hands (lol kidding).

 

[Mach1E]

This answers a slightly different question (how many trips were of what distance). Your question is probably significantly less than this (people who travel long distances probably do so multiple times).

From the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, the total number of trips from 1 January 2019 to 9 March 2024 was ~2.43e12. Trips less than 50 miles made up 97% of all trips taken. These trips were made by approximately 78% of the population.


Percent of trips of the following distances:

< 1 mile	1-3 miles	3-5 miles	5-10 miles	10-25 miles	25-50 miles	50-100 miles	100-250 miles	250-500 miles	500+ miles
26.31%	24.10%	12.12%	15.43%	14.78%	4.73%	1.59%	0.69%	0.15%	0.11%

Interesting data, also not super surprising .

The issue is that when you only own 1 car you don’t need it 99% of the time, you need it to do 100% of the things.

If we did things for the 99% we wouldn’t have so much fire safety.

Fire doors, fire exits, fire alarms, fire extinguishers, fire sprinklers etc. If you visit a school you would think the #1 thing they worry about is fires. Google how many kids have died in school fires in the last 100 years in your spare time.

 

[azerik]

As for replacing 'old' batteries in these MME's? Never. The tech is already out dated. Give the car another 4 years and 100,000 miles of door dings and spilled coffee and tell me you want to spend $5,000 ~ $10k on a battery that'll get your bucket of busted switches/cameras with a 4 year outdated Sync system that charges at 1/5th the DC speed (because new battery doesn't mean new, supported OBCC) when for a bit more you get a car that can do 400+ to the charge at 1/3rd the time the MME could and be under warranty, and heaven forbid.. faster and better software.

I'm still curious where all the 10+ yr old Leafs, Foci, Fiat etc have disappeared to. I see some, but nothing like they sold over the last 10 years being readily buyable for say $5k or something less (being reasonable). I was offered $500 for my FFE not to long ago, with the bigger battery as well, but you won't find more than 3 for sale in the state and they're asking $12k+ (same spec/miles as mine). I figure dismantlers are gutting HV cables and steel but the market for upgrading, let alone just replacing those cars batteries just doesn't exist.

 

[dbsb3233]

Another thing that will make future battery packs better is improved BMS. Just replacing cells won't be as good as a new car designed with better BMS capabilities and cooling system.

 

[jeffMachE]

This answers a slightly different question (how many trips were of what distance). Your question is probably significantly less than this (people who travel long distances probably do so multiple times).

From the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, the total number of trips from 1 January 2019 to 9 March 2024 was ~2.43e12. Trips less than 50 miles made up 97% of all trips taken. These trips were made by approximately 78% of the population.


Percent of trips of the following distances:

< 1 mile	1-3 miles	3-5 miles	5-10 miles	10-25 miles	25-50 miles	50-100 miles	100-250 miles	250-500 miles	500+ miles
26.31%	24.10%	12.12%	15.43%	14.78%	4.73%	1.59%	0.69%	0.15%	0.11%

Thanks for that data. Its interesting, but as you said, it answers a slightly different question than what I was asking. I agree that people who do travel more than 200 miles in a day are more likely to do so multiple times. But what would be really interesting to find out are the number of people who *never* travel more than 200 miles in a day. If that number is (total guess here) 75% of people, then the market for EV's is really huge - provided the charging issues if you don't have a garage can be solved. There is no EV (nor is there any ICE vehicle) that addresses everyone. I, for example, have an f-350 diesel and a 3-horse trailer that we have to pull regularly. No path that I can see for replacing that with an EV.

 

[Mach1E]

Thanks for that data. Its interesting, but as you said, it answers a slightly different question than what I was asking. I agree that people who do travel more than 200 miles in a day are more likely to do so multiple times. But what would be really interesting to find out are the number of people who *never* travel more than 200 miles in a day. If that number is (total guess here) 75% of people, then the market for EV's is really huge - provided the charging issues if you don't have a garage can be solved. There is no EV (nor is there any ICE vehicle) that addresses everyone. I, for example, have an f-350 diesel and a 3-horse trailer that we have to pull regularly. No path that I can see for replacing that with an EV.

The problem is still that the 75% assumes people buy based on what they need.

And for people who look at cars like appliances or a toaster oven, that may be true.

But for many others, cars are purely based on wants.

How many 4x4 vehicles have never been off-road?

How many carstop out at 150-200 mph yet will rarely if ever go over 100?

And then there is the safety issue with range……. In case of emergency kinda things.

I live well into the state of Florida where myself, and millions of my neighbors may need to evacuate at the same time. We absolutely cannot all drive EVs and evacuate.
Agreed on the need for multiple vehicles…..if you can afford it. Not sure why some people think we can get to 100% electric.

 

[Guss-E 2021]

I’m still waiting for their stock to skyrocket.

You and me both. Not like it costs much to get into right now either.

 

[Guss-E 2021]

Not trying to pick a fight, but *my* threshold is 3-4 hours driving before I want to stop and at least stretch my back and legs. @~70 mph, that means 240-280 miles. I'm never driving 400 miles without a stop. And if I'm going to stop, then I'm going to charge the car.

I have to agree. In my mind there is "rushing" a 400+ mile trip. You get there when you get there.

 

[Guss-E 2021]

I bet y'all wish you had a Flux Capacitor like me. Bananas are so cheap right now.

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