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Best Guess on When Premium Trims Will Start Arriving

ChasingCoral

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I know we’ve been told that they have to intermingle trim levels to keep the line running at a steady pace, so there will be some FEs, Premiums, CA Rte 1s, and I guess a few Selects produced at the same time.
Do they intermingle different MARKETS at the same time? For example, will they run an EU car, then an NA car, then a UK car?
They may do that in 2021 after they deliver as many cars to NA in 2020 as they can.
 

jlauro

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I know we’ve been told that they have to intermingle trim levels to keep the line running at a steady pace, so there will be some FEs, Premiums, CA Rte 1s, and I guess a few Selects produced at the same time.
Do they intermingle different MARKETS at the same time? For example, will they run an EU car, then an NA car, then a UK car?
Part of it is they can only ship out so many at a time via rail, and they can't do their first shipment until they have the initial OKTB passed. So, some of those other trims even if made earlier will sit on the lot longer than FE. Probably just the first few shipments until shipping catches up.
 

AndyS_OSU

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We hope to have VINs and target dates by mid-October for FEs, not long after for early reservations of other trims. No official word on that, though.

I'll bet your dealer will still work with you. This would be a good time to reach back out to them.
Thanks again. The exact voicemail said “we have received info from Ford and our MachEs will begin production in mid December” I figured if dealers had received any info it would have been on this board so I’m still holding out hope that they are just making stuff up.
 

Jimrpa

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They may do that in 2021 after they deliver as many cars to NA in 2020 as they can.
Thanks. I’m trying to use the bits and pieces of info to try to guesstimate how late in Summer 2021 my order 27034 Premium AWD ER will actually show up at my dealer 😀
 

dbsb3233

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Thanks. I’m trying to use the bits and pieces of info to try to guesstimate how late in Summer 2021 my order 27034 Premium AWD ER will actually show up at my dealer 😀
I'd guess before Summer for that number. Like maybe Feb-Mar.
 

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Okay gurus @trutolife27 and @ChasingCoral do I keep ignoring my dealer when they call and tell me my 96xx reservation Premium will start down the line in December and be available by February?
I would not ignore this information. When arriving at a final estimate of the time needed by estimating how long each step will take, you invariably end up underestimating the time it will actually take. Always works this way.

My Premium has a reservation number substantially lower than yours and my dealer told me it would be here in December or January. This is different but consistent with what your dealer has told you. So I'd assume they are right until proven wrong.

Sorry to hear about the fix you are in. Losing the ability to time the next lease or purchase is the only real issue with leasing. You might want to look into extending the lease -- I've heard GM is or was doing that (bc of pandemic) -- or look at taking over another lease on a short term basis. No doubt there are other options, including a demo from your Ford dealer. In any case making plans sooner is better than doing so later.
 

slambertr

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Actually, someone pointed out on another thread that if I listen this as time post-yes, I need to account for FEs. FE reservations were around 15%, so that initial 35% part is wrong. While 35% are GTs and will come out next summer, 15% are FEs and come first, so

9000 * .5 = 4500 *.4 = 1800. You pick up part of a week.
OK, so I'm bad at math, but here I go anyway:
Order #8848 (reserved 11/18/2019 and ordered 6/29/2020)
8848 - 4,000 = 4828
4848 * 0.5 = 2,414
2,424 * 0.4 = 970
That sounds like I should make a 2020 delivery?
Thank you for all of the info on this thread and the forum in general - great stuff!
 

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Yes.

My pessimistic estimate at https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/production-runs-line-output-guesstimates.1033/post-32338 guesses 3,200 North American Premiums produced before the EU/UK production run starts.

I related that to reservation date/numbers as:
We can assume 35% GTs, 15% FEs, so reservation holders up to 10,400 to perhaps 20,000 get cars in 2020 depending mostly on the ratio of NA to EU/UK cars in that first week of reservations. That means reservations made between the reveal on 11/17 and 11/19 will likely get their cars in 2020, maybe even those who reserved up until about 11/25.

That also assumed 60/40 EU/NA split.

So I see at least cars through 10,xxx coming by near the first of the year.
Although I placed my order on 18 Nov, the email I received said reservation made on 19 Nov. My reservation number is 13,432. I would hope to receive it in December...although I “think” I have a Mach Drop First Edition reservation to replace that Premium. Who knows which car I’ll actually end up with and when I’ll get it though. 😬
 

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Just got a call from my dealer (Ken Garff Ford, St. George UT) that they have a Premium scheduled to be built on November 9th and delivered about 2 to 3 weeks later. He said I could have it if I wanted it. I ordered a Premium AWD Extended Range in Infinite Blue Metallic with Light Space Grey interior. The only difference is that the one coming in is Rapid Red Metallic. I'm definitely going to go in to check it out and just might drive off with it instead of waiting for mine to roll in.
 

dbsb3233

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Just got a call from my dealer (Ken Garff Ford, St. George UT) that they have a Premium scheduled to be built on November 9th and delivered about 2 to 3 weeks later. He said I could have it if I wanted it. I ordered a Premium AWD Extended Range in Infinite Blue Metallic with Light Space Grey interior. The only difference is that the one coming in is Rapid Red Metallic. I'm definitely going to go in to check it out and just might drive off with it instead of waiting for mine to roll in.
That's interesting. By the info we've heard, he left out a step (OKTB):
  • Built around 11/9 sounds plausible.
  • 2-3 week delivery time sounds plausible (that's the same number we've heard).
  • However we've also been told vehicles will queue up on the lots at the plant until OKTB (OK To Buy inspection) is given, currently expected 11/23. If true, then the 2-3 week delivery clock would start from there.
 

jlauro

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That's interesting. By the info we've heard, he left out a step (OKTB):
  • Built around 11/9 sounds plausible.
  • 2-3 week delivery time sounds plausible (that's the same number we've heard).
  • However we've also been told vehicles will queue up on the lots at the plant until OKTB (OK To Buy inspection) is given, currently expected 11/23. If true, then the 2-3 week delivery clock would start from there.
Expected Nov 23 was when Job 1 (first production start) was set for 26 October. They moved up Job 1 by about a month, so it's likely OKTB will too.
 

dbsb3233

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Expected Nov 23 was when Job 1 (first production start) was set for 26 October. They moved up Job 1 by about a month, so it's likely OKTB will too.
As of 6 days ago, trutolife27 said OKTB date hasn't changed...

https://www.macheforum.com/site/thr...ng-friends-in-mexico.1100/page-105#post-40571

So the lot at the OKTB "date" will be full many FE and premium. The premium that are not Dealer FCTP will rail out Third.

https://www.macheforum.com/site/thr...ng-friends-in-mexico.1100/page-104#post-40522

OKTB is still the same date and the same rules. DEMO models are the same they won't leave the lot also.
 

jlauro

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As of 6 days ago, trutolife27 said OKTB date hasn't changed...

https://www.macheforum.com/site/thr...ng-friends-in-mexico.1100/page-105#post-40571

So the lot at the OKTB "date" will be full many FE and premium. The premium that are not Dealer FCTP will rail out Third.

https://www.macheforum.com/site/thr...ng-friends-in-mexico.1100/page-104#post-40522

OKTB is still the same date and the same rules. DEMO models are the same they won't leave the lot also.
True. I'm not saying it has or will change, but if the OKTB were to change, I doubt we would know about it much if any before that new date. The timeline from FPLiptak would imply/require it would have to change by the end of the month (or was not mentioned the vehicle will also be sitting on the lot for a couple of weeks).
 

ChasingCoral

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That also violates FCTP rules that require the car be in service 4-6 months before sale.
 

dbsb3233

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True. I'm not saying it has or will change, but if the OKTB were to change, I doubt we would know about it much if any before that new date. The timeline from FPLiptak would imply/require it would have to change by the end of the month (or was not mentioned the vehicle will also be sitting on the lot for a couple of weeks).
I don't know either. It's so hard to know which pieces of info are actual, or assumed, or maybe just wrong. But when it comes to what we hear from dealers vs what we hear from trutolife27, I learn toward the latter. Not to say that dealers are intentionally misleading, but when it comes to timing of build and delivery, they're usually behind on info.

My guess is they often apply an "already in production" filter to their timing, and forget that it's a new model that hasn't gone through OKTB yet. In other words, as though they were talking about an Explorer or F-150. Once they have a build date, it probably is usually 2-3 weeks from there to delivery.
 



 









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