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Best Guess on When Premium Trims Will Start Arriving

EyeOnMachE

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With a 13k res number he just might. But again, I think one's location will play a big part in this. My res # is less than 13k and I don't expect delivery in 2020. Also, and I know this is self imposed, but I will not be signing any papers and/or ponying up any more money at this time until my butt sits in and test drives an MME. This isn't like buying a loaf of bread and saying, eh, I didn't like it, no big deal. Personal choice. I know others are willing to buy without test driving. To each their own. I prefer to not waste time with those involved - me, dealer, financier, etc. - when a simple road test will determine whether to go forward or not with the purchase.

Plus, with it being so late in the year, if one wants to take advantage of the full fed tax credit, they better make sure they have enough of a tax liability in 2020, which becomes more of a planning issue for retirees on fixed incomes.
 
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ARK

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  • Thread starter
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Thanks, fingers crossed. I ordered an AWD standard range, hopefully they don’t bump my order behind all the extended range variants!

@EyeOnMachE is right. I will definitely want to test drive it first. A family member has a Jaguar XF. It’s an overall nice car, but there is a hard edge next to the shifter where I like to rest my leg in any car I’m in. Messes a lot with my driving experience to the point where I wouldn’t buy that car if I was looking for a $50k-ish luxury sedan. No way you can learn about personal preference stuff like that until you actually sit in and drive a vehicle.
 

mamejunkie

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Since Ford assembles the battery from cells at the factory, they can prob product more of the standard range than the extended. For every 3 extended they change to standard, they can get another standard out. Just a thought...please, please inch my standard range closer to the front of the line... 👿😅
 

ChasingCoral

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Just remember there are some important things to remember when converting reservation numbers into production order. These are detailed in
https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/production-runs-line-output-guesstimates.1033/
especially the latest:
https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/production-runs-line-output-guesstimates.1033/post-27825
(Yes, I need to update this soon with some of the new intel)

Basically, 0-3999 were either not issued or reserved for private Ford use, so numbers start at 4,000.
~35% GTs that will be produced next summer
~60% of 1st year production were slated for EU/UK.

So a 13,000 reservation becomes 9,000, becomes 5,850 cars ahead of you when accounting for GTs. That may even go down to 2,340 if 60% of early orders were EU (really don't know if that holds). Assuming 1,000 cars produced per week, you are around week 2-6 of production after First Editions finish.
 

OdellBretthamJr

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My birthday is the first week of December so I’m hoping for a great present from Ford. Early 6000 order number so I’m hopeful.
 

ChasingCoral

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My birthday is the first week of December so I’m hoping for a great present from Ford. Early 6000 order number so I’m hopeful.
Quite possible. Remember that 4000, 5000, and 6000 (and maybe 7000) numbers were being issued simultaneously at the start. That means a low 6000 number could be earlier in the queue than a high 4000 number.
 

Plutoman15

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So my 34,500 Premium goes to number 4,970. Even lower if Premiums are built ahead of Select and California R1's.
34,500x.65 (removes GT's) x.4 (removes EU orders)minus 4,000 (start of numbering)
 

hybrid2bev

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So my 34,500 Premium goes to number 4,970. Even lower if Premiums are built ahead of Select and California R1's.
34,500x.65 (removes GT's) x.4 (removes EU orders)minus 4,000 (start of numbering)
I like your math... that looks like fun. Let me try....

Premium reservation #4393 (15 minutes after reveal event Nov 17th) - 4000 starting buffer = 393 x. 65 = 255 x .4 = 102 .... fun indeed!

Reservation numbers are pretty much meaningless it's the reservation timestamp that matters but still fun to think about where you are in line.
 

ChasingCoral

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So my 34,500 Premium goes to number 4,970. Even lower if Premiums are built ahead of Select and California R1's.
34,500x.65 (removes GT's) x.4 (removes EU orders)minus 4,000 (start of numbering)
Maybe. The first 65% is probable. However, we are less sure about the impact of the EU reservations.

One problem with your math: you have to subtract the 4000 at the start. Otherwise, your .65 and .4 deflations act on the 4000 missing numbers.

That means
34,500 minus 4,000 (start of numbering) x.65 (removes GT's) x.4 (removes EU orders)
so 30,500 x .65 = 19,825 x .4 = 7930
 

ChasingCoral

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I like your math... that looks like fun. Let me try....

Premium reservation #4393 (15 minutes after reveal event Nov 17th) - 4000 starting buffer = 393 x. 65 = 255 x .4 = 102 .... fun indeed!

Reservation numbers are pretty much meaningless it's the reservation timestamp that matters but still fun to think about where you are in line.
Of course, in your case all the 4000, 5000, and at least 6000 numbers were being issued simultaneously. For these low numbers 4393 - 4000 = 393 x 3 = 1179 x .65 = 766 x .4 = 306
 

Plutoman15

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I like your math... that looks like fun. Let me try....

Premium reservation #4393 (15 minutes after reveal event Nov 17th) - 4000 starting buffer = 393 x. 65 = 255 x .4 = 102 .... fun indeed!

Reservation numbers are pretty much meaningless it's the reservation timestamp that matters but still fun to think about where you are in line.
Wow, so yours is a question of which hour of the first day of production does yours start to be made. Most of us are asking which month. LOL

You are right about the reservation numbers. I ordered a GT first with a 35K reservation number and a week later ordered an addition Premium and got a 34k reservation number. So until Ford tells us it is nearly impossible to see where we really are. I would contend that our place in line is no worse than our reservation number though given that they did relatively follow the time stamp of the reservation.
 

Plutoman15

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Maybe. The first 65% is probable. However, we are less sure about the impact of the EU reservations.

One problem with your math: you have to subtract the 4000 at the start. Otherwise, your .65 and .4 deflations act on the 4000 missing numbers.

That means
34,500 minus 4,000 (start of numbering) x.65 (removes GT's) x.4 (removes EU orders)
so 30,500 x .65 = 19,825 x .4 = 7930
Party pooper! :)

You are correct about that math. I realized it after I posted but decided it was more fun my way.
 

MattG

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Quite possible. Remember that 4000, 5000, and 6000 (and maybe 7000) numbers were being issued simultaneously at the start. That means a low 6000 number could be earlier in the queue than a high 4000 number.
I’m not sure how quickly those all filled up, but I placed my reservation immediately after watching the reveal online that evening, and got a 71xx number. Crossing fingers for a December delivery!
 

Woeo

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So a 13,000 reservation becomes 9,000, becomes 5,850 cars ahead of you when accounting for GTs. That may even go down to 2,340 if 60% of early orders were EU (really don't know if that holds). Assuming 1,000 cars produced per week, you are around week 2-6 of production after First Editions finish.
How many of the 5850 might be FEs and are getting double counted?
 



 









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