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More MME's to Europe?

Jolteon

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You know why VW jumped in right. You know VW came to ford asking to partner right. You know that kinda had to make up for a lot of things they did and promised by going electric. More of they had to then they wanted to.
None of that takes away from the fact that they've already accomplished more than Ford in EVs, and have far more ambitious plans than Ford. People still go to BP stations after the Deepwater Horizon, people still buy GMs after the ignition switch and bailouts. Consumers have the memories of goldfish. The reason VW is making BEVs is irrelevant - they're successfully transitioning away from engines and Ford is not.

If Ford is fine selling just a few hundred thousand EVs a year to meet bare minimum regulatory compliance and let VW sell millions of EVs a year, that's *a* strategy, sure. Not one that I'd invest in.
 

trutolife27

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None of that takes away from the fact that they've already accomplished more than Ford in EVs, and have far more ambitious plans than Ford. People still go to BP stations after the Deepwater Horizon, people still buy GMs after the ignition switch and bailouts. Consumers have the memories of goldfish. The reason VW is making BEVs is irrelevant - they're successfully transitioning away from engines and Ford is not.

If Ford is fine selling just a few hundred thousand EVs a year to meet bare minimum regulatory compliance and let VW sell millions of EVs a year, that's *a* strategy, sure. Not one that I'd invest in.
there is no rush yet on anyone part because the market has not shown it yet. Rush in and wrong can't come back from it. better to have a portfolio of different types than all the same. Never go full. your come up empty-handed
 

Jolteon

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there is no rush yet on anyone part because the market has not shown it yet. Rush in and wrong can't come back from it. better to have a portfolio of different types than all the same. Never go full. your come up empty-handed
The market has not shown... what, exactly?

Again, they sold 25,000 BEVs in 1 month last month.

Tesla moves 500,000 cars this year... into a nonexistent market?

EV sales are supply limited at the moment. Every "expert" prediction of the EV market has underestimated actual demand.

"Never go full" is why we don't have Kodak anymore. They thought they could sit on both sides of the technological fence and keep all their film plants running since that digital thing was just a fad.

Ford needs to go full into BEVs. Yesterday.

But they don't have leadership who can see the big picture, unfortunately.
 

Regularmache

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I really can't see that, I truly can't. I see Ford dipping a toe in, and VW jumping fully in.

Ford has announced 1 ground-up EV, and then they're cramming batteries into Transit and F-150, who knows how that will end up. I'm not optimistic. We've seen over and over and over and over and over again that any EV not built on a dedicated platform always has weaknesses.

Volkswagen has launched 3 new EVs this year, has *dozens* more coming, and is transitioning many plants globally. Ford is... not.

GM has more EVs in the pipeline and bolder commitments to electrics. They're not wasting time with hybrids and plug-in hybrids like Ford is, they're going straight to BEV. They're building their own battery factory. Their own drive motors. Their own power electronics. Just like VW.

Tesla will sell what, 500,000 BEVs globally this year? More next.
Ford will sell...5,000 Mach-Es this year? Maybe 50,000 next?

VW just sold 25,000 ID.3s in September alone.

I want Ford to win, but Ford needs to step up their game. Their plan doesn't get them halfway to where I want them to be.
Let me see, 97.5% of vehicles sold are Non-BEVs, so an automaker who want's to stay in business, better have that area completely covered. Ford does and if they reversed their product line to 97.5% BEV, they would bankrupt in less than a year. Your passion for BEVs is fantastic, but don't let it obscure the market realities. In the mean time if you can figure out how to get me a new battery for my 2008 Tesla before it's CaC completely deteriorates, please message me.
 

Jolteon

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Let me see, 97.5% of vehicles sold are Non-BEVs, so an automaker who want's to stay in business, better have that area completely covered. Ford does and if they reversed their product line to 97.5% BEV, they would bankrupt in less than a year. Your passion for BEVs is fantastic, but don't let it obscure the market realities. In the mean time if you can figure out how to get me a new battery for my 2008 Tesla before it's CaC completely deteriorates, please message me.
"Market realities" are transient.

Nobody said 97.5% BEV in less than a year, let's be reasonable.

My point is that the BEV market is accelerating faster than the "smart" people predicted, and even then Ford was lagging behind their predictions.

It's very frustrating to me to not just watch these companies tentatively dip their toes in, but to have people *defend* that by saying how brave it was to dip a toe in!

We're heading to an all-electric future very, very quickly. Far quicker than Ford is, but at least they're ahead of Chrysler (at least until their merger with PSA is completed).

Risk aversion is a fatal disease for a company, not the other way around. Companies that thrive disrupt themselves, question themselves, and challenge every assumption about themselves. I really don't get the feeling Ford does that anymore.
 

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Not to start anything (there's enough of that in this forum), but that 60/40 split transformed from supposition 10 months ago to fact somewhere around 8 months ago. As far as I have ever seen, no Ford employee publicly or on this forum has substantiated that ratio.

The recent videos and reports from Europe state that Europe is in the 8000 range, not 30,000 as has been believed for almost a year. The fact that @trutolife27 reported 50k ORDERs were already in hand with around 10k left to go before most of Europe (ie not the netherlands) has had a chance to order corroborates the 8k number.
Oh no doubt @timbop I was just repeating what I had read in the various EV press articles back pre pandemic. That was a 20,000/30,000 split. I have very little doubt those numbers were not hard limits. If they were NA orders would have shutdown maybe around June 28. The fact that there appears to be so many more NA & Norway orders shows the 50K split wasn't a hard and fast number at all. That's a good thing or I could very well have been number 32,000 out of 20,000 ;)
 

LYTMCQ

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Ford needs to go full into BEVs.
All mfgs do but they are also serving the consumer market and consumers want the cheaper, more convenient ICE vehicles by a large percentage, like 90%.

They have a balancing act building up the EV's the government requires and selling the consumer market for ICEs.
 

JellyBelly

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Not to start anything (there's enough of that in this forum), but that 60/40 split transformed from supposition 10 months ago to fact somewhere around 8 months ago. As far as I have ever seen, no Ford employee publicly or on this forum has substantiated that ratio.

The recent videos and reports from Europe state that Europe is in the 8000 range, not 30,000 as has been believed for almost a year. The fact that @trutolife27 reported 50k ORDERs were already in hand with around 10k left to go before most of Europe (ie not the netherlands) has had a chance to order corroborates the 8k number.
What this may mean, if true or close to being true, is that those with high reservation numbers outside of EU are likely to get their cars earlier as Ford does not have to make 30K cares for EU but a much smaller number. Ofcourse this is all speculation.
 

Kamuelaflyer

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What this may mean, if true or close to being true, is that those with high reservation numbers outside of EU are likely to get their cars earlier as Ford does not have to make 30K cares for EU but a much smaller number. Ofcourse this is all speculation.
The market for EVs in the EU is exponentially higher than the U.S.. I'd bet Ford sees the same type of response we've seen here. They also have serious financial incentives to sell a bunch of these in the EU.

Just my guess, it's not like I haven't been wrong before.
 

MerryBrown

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The market for EVs in the EU is exponentially higher than the U.S.. I'd bet Ford sees the same type of response we've seen here. They also have serious financial incentives to sell a bunch of these in the EU.

Just my guess, it's not like I haven't been wrong before.
I am just hoping when people see what a great vehicle this is there will be much more demand in the US. Maybe Tesla has introduced a possibility and now a legacy car company can take things to the next level.
 

Jolteon

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All mfgs do but they are also serving the consumer market and consumers want the cheaper, more convenient ICE vehicles by a large percentage, like 90%.

They have a balancing act building up the EV's the government requires and selling the consumer market for ICEs.
They're balancing on the wrong side of that equation. Consumer demand for BEVs is higher than current supply can deliver, and they're still being cautious.

Consumers want BEVs. They can't have them, because legacies don't offer enough of them, and legacies aren't investing in the charging to make them work for more consumers.

I can't see the world you're describing where consumers *want* ICE. They want BEVs. They reluctantly buy ICE.
 

trutolife27

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They're balancing on the wrong side of that equation. Consumer demand for BEVs is higher than current supply can deliver, and they're still being cautious.

Consumers want BEVs. They can't have them, because legacies don't offer enough of them, and legacies aren't investing in the charging to make them work for more consumers.

I can't see the world you're describing where consumers *want* ICE. They want BEVs. They reluctantly buy ICE.
Well, I feel like its goodwill hunting season all over again.

The demand for EV sales in the united states is low. Well, not really low but super very low. Have to take what you want so much out of what everyone else wants and can afford.

Half of all BEV sales are in just the state of California.
50% of Americans make less than 30,000 a year.
80% of Americans buy used vehicles not new.
Weather in 38% of the united states is not adequate for a BEV owner.
20% of Americans live in apartments that have no access to charging at home.
22% of people buying tesla, are trading in and buying a tesla again. Not new customers.

Elon sees the writing on the wall. For tesla to survive he knows he has to get that 25,000 dollar car out quick. There are only so many people that make enough money to keep buying these high price BEV.
With more manufacturers getting involved that pie keeps getting cut short for tesla.
Tesla did the survey and it showed 45% of Telsa owners will look at purchasing the Mache when it comes out. Tesla no one else tesla did it. Say only 20% of the 45% follow through and buy a mache. That is a high loss for tesla.

The United States is not the same market where people drive very few miles or commute with people. Live in the same houses are parents. The same goes for the Asian market.


You can throw all the new BEV mumbo jumbo out there all you want. If people can't afford them then they can't afford them. With the battery cost so high to be replaced, the used car market can't afford to buy them.

All the wants you speak of yes sure they are nice. But at the end of the day the BEV range, price, 10-year ownership is not there. With gas prices under 2 dollars, the benefit for BEV or EV market has slowed. Your ownership of the EV market is your well off class and middle class. The middle class is struggling to keep their head afloat right now.

Like Elon musk said himself. Tell we have an Electic vehicle under 30,000 with 500 miles of range, the EV market will not exceed 10% of sales in the North American market.

Most of your BEV sales are sold as the COOL in things to buy. Something different. If Tesla cars only went 0 to 60 in 10 seconds and not fast speeds.......well you know. Why do you think he spelled out sexy? lol

So yes no need to rush in when tech and sales don't show what you think they show.
🤯


But sales in China have been flat all year, and sales in Europe are down. Given that the Shanghai plant increased Tesla’s annual production capacity by 40%, “selling another 27,000 cars isn’t stellar,” said Matthias Schmidt, publisher of the European Electric Car Report in Berlin.




Ads by Tesla
Tesla’s total annual capacity now is 690,000, yet analysts say it will sell well under 500,000 cars this year.

To hit the half-million mark, which Musk has identified as his deliveries target, Tesla must now deliver 180,000 cars in the upcoming fourth quarter.

That might not be an issue if growth were faster or the stock price were lower. But with a tiny fraction of worldwide sales, the stock market pegs Tesla as the world’s most valuable car company. Its market value of about $400 billion is bigger than Toyota, Ford, General Motors, Fiat Chrysler, Volkswagen and Honda — combined. The company is under tremendous pressure to show how it can grow into those expectations.

“Tesla is currently valued at 15 times sales,” said Gordon Johnson at the GLJ Research financial firm in an email. “Which means to give investors a 15-year payback, TSLA has pay them 100% of its 2020 revenues for 15 straight years, with zero expenses, no taxes paid, and no dividends. Yet, TSLA is losing share in the EU and China.” Johnson concluded, “In short, investors are in for a very rude awakening.”
 
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trutolife27

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I really can't see that, I truly can't. I see Ford dipping a toe in, and VW jumping fully in.

Ford has announced 1 ground-up EV, and then they're cramming batteries into Transit and F-150, who knows how that will end up. I'm not optimistic. We've seen over and over and over and over and over again that any EV not built on a dedicated platform always has weaknesses.

Volkswagen has launched 3 new EVs this year, has *dozens* more coming, and is transitioning many plants globally. Ford is... not.

GM has more EVs in the pipeline and bolder commitments to electrics. They're not wasting time with hybrids and plug-in hybrids like Ford is, they're going straight to BEV. They're building their own battery factory. Their own drive motors. Their own power electronics. Just like VW.

Tesla will sell what, 500,000 BEVs globally this year? More next.
Ford will sell...5,000 Mach-Es this year? Maybe 50,000 next?

VW just sold 25,000 ID.3s in September alone.

I want Ford to win, but Ford needs to step up their game. Their plan doesn't get them halfway to where I want them to be.

Ford

Of the 40 electrified vehicles Ford plans for its global lineup by 2022, 16 will be fully electric and the rest will be plug-in hybrids, executives said.

“We’re all in on this and we’re taking our mainstream vehicles, our most iconic vehicles, and we’re electrifying them,” Ford told reporters. “If we want to be successful with electrification, we have to do it with vehicles that are already popular.”


GM
said last year it would add 20 new battery electric and fuel cell vehicles to its global lineup by 2023, financed by robust profits from traditional internal combustion engine vehicles in the United States and China.

Volkswagen Group

whose brands also include Porsche, Audi, Skoda, Bentley and Bugatti, will launch 75 electric cars mostly in the Euro market by 2029

You do know VW and ford are partnered also right?
 

timbop

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Well, I feel like its goodwill hunting season all over again.

The demand for EV sales in the united states is low. Well, not really low but super very low. Have to take what you want so much out of what everyone else wants and can afford.

Half of all BEV sales are in just the state of California.
50% of Americans make less than 30,000 a year.
80% of Americans buy used vehicles not new.
Weather in 38% of the united states is not adequate for a BEV owner.
20% of Americans live in apartments that no access to charging at home.
22% of people buying tesla, are trading in and buying a tesla again. Not new customers.

Elon sees the writing on the wall. For tesla to survive he knows he has to get that 25,000 dollar car out quick. There are only so many people that make enough money to keep buying these high price BEV.
With more manufacturers getting involved that pie keeps getting cut short for tesla.
Tesla did the survey and it showed 45% of Telsa owners will look at purchasing the Mache when it comes out. Tesla no one else tesla did it. Say only 20% of the 45% follow through and buy a mache. That is a high loss for tesla.

The United States is not the same market where people drive very few miles or commute with people. Live in the same houses are parents. The same goes for the Asian market.


You can throw all the new BEV mumbo jumbo out there all you want. If people can't afford them then they can't afford them. With the battery cost so high to be replaced, the used car market can't afford to buy them.

All the wants you speak of yes sure they are nice. But at the end of the day the BEV range, price, 10-year ownership is not there. With gas prices under 2 dollars, the benefit for BEV or EV market has slowed. Your ownership of the EV market is your well off class and middle class. The middle class is struggling to keep their head afloat right now.

Like Elon musk said himself. Tell we have an Electic vehicle under 30,000 with 500 miles of range, the EV market will not exceed 10% of sales in the North American market.

Most of your BEV sales are sold as the COOL in things to buy. Something different. If Tesla cars only went 0 to 60 in 10 seconds and not fast speeds.......well you know. Why do you think he spelled out sexy? lol

So yes no need to rush in when tech and sales don't show what you think they show.
🤯


But sales in China have been flat all year, and sales in Europe are down. Given that the Shanghai plant increased Tesla’s annual production capacity by 40%, “selling another 27,000 cars isn’t stellar,” said Matthias Schmidt, publisher of the European Electric Car Report in Berlin.




Ads by Tesla
Tesla’s total annual capacity now is 690,000, yet analysts say it will sell well under 500,000 cars this year.

To hit the half-million mark, which Musk has identified as his deliveries target, Tesla must now deliver 180,000 cars in the upcoming fourth quarter.

That might not be an issue if growth were faster or the stock price were lower. But with a tiny fraction of worldwide sales, the stock market pegs Tesla as the world’s most valuable car company. Its market value of about $400 billion is bigger than Toyota, Ford, General Motors, Fiat Chrysler, Volkswagen and Honda — combined. The company is under tremendous pressure to show how it can grow into those expectations.

“Tesla is currently valued at 15 times sales,” said Gordon Johnson at the GLJ Research financial firm in an email. “Which means to give investors a 15-year payback, TSLA has pay them 100% of its 2020 revenues for 15 straight years, with zero expenses, no taxes paid, and no dividends. Yet, TSLA is losing share in the EU and China.” Johnson concluded, “In short, investors are in for a very rude awakening.”
Excellent, spot on analysis. Unfortunately, it takes seeing the frenzied boom into bust cycle over and over for its inevitability to sink in.

In addition to the fact that Tesla can't possibly give the return that is currently anticipated, Tesla will have to increase their manufacturing by 10 to 20 times to even come close to growing into its market cap. That kind of growth rate typically destroys the culture that led to a company's initial success, often eventually destroying the company.
 
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LYTMCQ

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None of that takes away from the fact that they've already accomplished more than Ford in EVs, and have far more ambitious plans than Ford.
Ford Mustang sales 70,000
Ford F-150 sales 800,000

Ford Total WW sales. 1.3M

Mustang and F150 represent close to 70% of Ford sales.

Ford Mustang EV 2021
Ford F-150 EV 2021

One could argue that based on sales, no mfg has been more ambitious than Ford in moving to EV's. If market demand for EV's goes up, Ford is already positioned to produce EV's for 70% of its sales.

Ford is also doing it with its current brands while VW created new brands, the ID series for EV, hedging its bets more than Ford who is betting the house on EV.
 



 









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