Replacing an EV battery may cost less than fixing a gas engine by 2030

[ChasingCoral]

Replacing an EV battery may cost less than fixing a gas engine by 2030

STEPHEN EDELSTEIN DECEMBER 1, 2024

The potential high cost of EV battery replacements is a major worry for new-car shoppers, but that likely won't be the case for long, according to battery-analysis firm Recurrent.

Recurrent, which produces battery health reports for used EVs, predicts that plummeting new-battery prices will make replacing a battery pack cheaper than repairing a gasoline engine by the end of the decade.



2025 Hyundai Ioniq 5

Whether it's a gasoline engine, a battery pack, or any other component, repairs don't make financial sense if they exceed the value of a car. Battery replacement costs are already trending away from that, according to Recurrent. They now represent 75% of the value of a $15,000 used car, down from 100% in 2020, the company estimates, adding that by 2030 battery replacements will be equivalent to 30% of the value of a $15,000 used vehicle.

This is being made possible by declining costs for new EV batteries. As Recurrent notes, Goldman Sachs predicted earlier this year that average battery prices would reach $80 per kwh in 2026—almost 50% lower than 2023. With the exception of a bump in 2022 due to high raw material prices, that's generally been the trend since the start of the modern EV era. The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that EV battery costs have dropped 90% since 2008.



2025 Kia EV6

Recurrent assumes that these trends will continue, and that by 2030 there will be a robust market for used EV batteries that could allow owners to offset some of the cost of replacement. Growth of so-called second-life applications such as stationary energy storage could allow EV owners to negotiate the sale of their vehicles' used packs, potentially lowering the effective price of new packs by $10-$20 per kwh, Recurrent predicts.

Lower costs could not only help make used EVs more affordable, but might keep more of them in circulation. A 2023 report found that it's more common to replace battery packs than repair them, which, at current battery prices, could lead to relatively new vehicles being "totaled" by insurance companies over minor damage and higher insurance premiums for those that remain.

https://www.greencarreports.com/new...ail&utm_term=0_7e18d5fd93-4d32cc0b2c-54730204

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[RickMachE]

I would love a filter that blocked all Recurrent posts...

 

[AngryMan]

My thinking going into my Mach purchase was that by the time the battery needed replacing the natural process of innovation would have batteries smaller, more powerful , cheaper and quicker to charge . As long as the cars in great shape at that time Ill think of just sliding in a new pack OR Ill just ride it out until it can't power a night light

 

[Blue highway]

There is always the option of module repair or replacement or even used battery swap. As battery prices fall, there will be more totaled cars with an in-tact battery that can be salvaged on the used market.

 

[kltye]

I really hope a new generation of mechanics who aren't afraid of EVs and have knowledge of electricity and computers, will rise up to enable battery pack swaps and rebuilds for future vehicles. I know that somewhat exists now, but that's not easily accessible in most locations in the country/world.

 

[AKgrampy]

I will believe it when I see it! Of course that also means new car prices will also be much less expensive so I would probably trade in rather than go with new batteries.

 

[Sherpadave]

Nissan Leaf battery is open sourced and can be upgraded and replaced DIY in your own garage. Search on YouTube and you will find lots of DIY and professional swaps. The newer TESLA batteries look next-to-impossible to replace because they build the car interior on it and insert the whole works from the bottom rather than installing the interior through the door openings. The MME battery should be fairly easy to replace, since they have already dropped mine out to fix the contactor,

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