Uh Oh

[RickMachE]

I would love to see the price of gas be $4 a gallon for vehicles, held there artificially to encourage the shift to EVs, but not affecting other petroleum usage or product prices. Take the surcharge and drive down income tax, but provide a tax break for incomes under $75,000, tied to gas usage somehow.

Sponsored

 

[Shayne]

I would love to see the price of gas be $4 a gallon for vehicles, held there artificially to encourage the shift to EVs, but not affecting other petroleum usage or product prices. Take the surcharge and drive down income tax, but provide a tax break for incomes under $75,000, tied to gas usage somehow.

The governments only option if they want the switch is to raise the price. They are down for election purposes plain and simple and has nothing to do with inflation or the Russian war at this stage I would guess. Carbon tax cuts is what has done it here.

 

[ADDZ71]

Ok - I will throw my two cents in on this discussion.
1) As many have said the sales growth rate has gone down and this is to be expected as the absolute sales number grows.
2) The USA legacy automakers have a difficult path to getting their costs down to offer a vehicle that returns a similar margin as Tesla.
3) Early adopters and those capable of affording the most expensive vehicles has spurred many of the sales but more and more people will recognize the benefits and how/where to charge.
4) Hertz probably made a strategic error in going to deep on EV's (i.e. Tesla's) but they are not selling these at $0. They are changing their fleet back to possibly a higher level of ICE's.
5) Don't discount these stories for the sensationalism because they create clicks and headlines that cause some to want to learn more.
6) Be careful of the interests of outside influences. For example, China EV producers are salivating to sell more EV's outside of China and if they can stall the investments of legacy automakers such that they get a headstart then they will surely do that.
7) The BMW CFO said today that EV's are a tipping point and will continue to grow. This realization is important.

 

[thekat03]

there's about a 65% home ownership in the US. The rest rent or can not modify their homes easily. I don't consider Lvl 1 charging adequate. So I'm not including access to LVL 1 charging.

So far, the vast majority of EV buyers are on the wealthier side of the income spectrum so a lot of those that bought EVs owned their homes. But at some point you have to look at the people that don't own homes.

When the avg household income is <70k a year, I don't see these people owning their own homes buying new 40-50k EVs.

Hang on. Apparently the average car sold was $48,759, and it's been on a relative plateau there for the past 3 years. Last year the average EV sold dropped to $50,798 by December last year. It seems that average car sold price is boosted by the luxury segment, with the average luxury vehicle selling for $62,523, while the non-luxury segment was $45,283.
https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/kbb-atp-december-2023/
Since the average car prices have plateaued, even if average non-luxury car buyers aren't buying as much, they're going to have to, sooner or later, as their current cars age out. EVs are no longer priced like luxury vehicles. So the price of the car up front is significantly less of a barrier. Charging is still more of a barrier, but if infrastructure continues to improve, especially if we can increase charging options for those who can't charge at home, that barrier will shrink.
People still want EVs. It's just that the barriers historically have been higher for the average car buyer, but that's definitely improving. In the past couple months, my neighbor got a 2021 Leaf to replace her Prius C (she wanted electric, but needed room for infant car seats for the grandbabies, and the Leaf is a good sized affordable EV), and my brother got a 2021 Hyundai Kona Electric after someone totaled his plug in Prius. So at least the hybrid drivers are making the leap when they need to replace their cars. Maybe we won't see demand accelerate as fast as the car companies hoped for, demand is going to continue to grow, and with increasing availability of decent used EVs, I think the percentage of EVs on the road is going to keep growing.
https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/used-electric-vehicle-buying-report

 

[tfitzgex]

I firmly believe that the “lack of interest“. Is, in fact, due to the high price of EVS and the interest rate. If you have an expensive car and near free money, then a lot more people are going to take that bet. However, if you’re paying 6 or 7% on a $60,000 car that’s a lot of money.

 

[dbsb3233]

There is no "declining interest in EVs."

2023 was a record year for EV sales.

Yep. What's out of whack were the expectations some people had. Some (like that clown Tony Seba) acted like EV adoption would follow the same timeline as cell phone adoption. That once it got started, it would steamroll ICE in short order. No, not even close. This transformation will be measured in decades, not years. Cars are very expensive products with 15-20 year lifespans. That require immense refueling infrastructure. There's also a huge trust issue that consumers have to become comfortable with as well (that Hertz figured out too late). This isn't some brand new product like a cell phone, it's their transportation that they've become dependent on their whole lives.

EV market share will continue to gradually grow, but well short of the avalanche that some expected and hoped for. That was always unrealistic (outside of a few huge exceptions to the norm, like Norway).

 

[67 Stang Convertible]

Until our infrastructure improves, I think EVs have saturated the market. Those that want EVs for the most part have bought them.

Most people can not charge at home. Whether it's because they're renting, or it's cost prohibitive to upgrade their electrical system, EV ownership does not make sense for their situation.

Man, our infrastructure needs to improve. Took a small road trip this weekend. Stopped at 2 different EA stations; Plug and Charge Failed both stops (1st time in 2.5 years). I had to use a CC and the 1st stop two of the CC readers said payment declined. The 3rd one worked (thank goodness). I'M READY FOR TESLA CHARGERS!!! ELECTRIFY AMERICA SUCKS!!!

 

[dbsb3233]

Hang on. Apparently the average car sold was $48,759, and it's been on a relative plateau there for the past 3 years. Last year the average EV sold dropped to $50,798 by December last year. It seems that average car sold price is boosted by the luxury segment, with the average luxury vehicle selling for $62,523, while the non-luxury segment was $45,283.

I think it's less about luxury cars dragging the ICE average up (making it a poor comparison) than it is about large vehicles. There is no EV Suburban, Expedition, Explorer, etc. Large SUVs are very popular in the US and make up a significant share of the overall average of ICE sales, pushing the $$ average up. While 99% the EV average is made up of smaller vehicles.

Compare same-size vehicles though (like the Mach-E to the Escape, or Bronco Sport), and there's still around a $15k difference.

 

[RickMachE]

Man, our infrastructure needs to improve. Took a small road trip this weekend. Stopped at 2 different EA stations; Plug and Charge Failed both stops (1st time in 2.5 years). I had to use a CC and the 1st stop two of the CC readers said payment declined. The 3rd one worked (thank goodness). I'M READY FOR TESLA CHARGERS!!! ELECTRIFY AMERICA SUCKS!!!

Did you try activating the charger via FordPass?

The fault likely lies with EA not Ford.

Once Ford vehicles can use Tesla, that activation will be via... FordPass and Plug and Charge.

 

[67 Stang Convertible]

Did you try activating the charger via FordPass?

The fault likely lies with EA not Ford.

Once Ford vehicles can use Tesla, that activation will be via... FordPass and Plug and Charge.

I am unaware you can activate the charger via Ford Pass. I'll have to look into how to do that. I've gotten spoiled/lazy since Plug and Charge has never failed before this weekend (2.5 years).

 

[RickMachE]

I am unaware you can activate the charger via Ford Pass. I'll have to look into how to do that. I've gotten spoiled/lazy since Plug and Charge has never failed before this weekend (2.5 years).

Open FordPass.
Click on View Chargers.
Find charger, select it, Activate.

 

[thekat03]

The governments only option if they want the switch is to raise the price. They are down for election purposes plain and simple and has nothing to do with inflation or the Russian war at this stage I would guess. Carbon tax cuts is what has done it here.

You mean the only option is for the government to reduce the subsidies on oil? Gosh, those fiscal conservatives in Washington should consider that, since they want to cut spending so much, instead of cutting funding to the IRS, the one department that could help raise the government's income by making sure more people pay the taxes they owe. Oh whoops, slipped into politics!

I think it's less about luxury cars dragging the ICE average up (making it a poor comparison) than it is about large vehicles. There is no EV Suburban, Expedition, Explorer, etc. Large SUVs are very popular in the US and make up a significant share of the overall average of ICE sales, pushing the $$ average up. While 99% the EV average is made up of smaller vehicles.

Compare same-size vehicles though (like the Mach-E to the Escape, or Bronco Sport), and there's still around a $15k difference.

Sure the huge vehicles aren't helping that average car price, but Cox didn't itemize those out. I suspect hybrid and plug in hybrid drivers are more likely to switch (less intimidated by EVs and more interested in improved fuel economy), and the price jump isn't as big there. It's going to be interesting to see how overall car prices compared to EV prices shift over the next couple years.

 

[Mach1E]

You mean the only option is for the government to reduce the subsidies on oil? Gosh, those fiscal conservatives in Washington should consider that, since they want to cut spending so much, instead of cutting funding to the IRS, the one department that could help raise the government's income by making sure more people pay the taxes they owe. Oh whoops, slipped into politics!

Sure the huge vehicles aren't helping that average car price, but Cox didn't itemize those out. I suspect hybrid and plug in hybrid drivers are more likely to switch (less intimidated by EVs and more interested in improved fuel economy), and the price jump isn't as big there. It's going to be interesting to see how overall car prices compared to EV prices shift over the next couple years.

Also keep in mind the EV prices last year were skewed greatly by Tesla dropping their prices $15k-$50k per model. And Tesla still sells more electric cars than anyone.

Prices for sure have to come down to increase EV adoption.

But at the same time, prices need to stay high enough for manufacturers to make a profit or they won’t build the cars.

Currently we are at a crossroads.

If the EV market can’t make them both affordable and profitable, it will fall apart.

 

[nvabill]

I would love to see the price of gas be $4 a gallon for vehicles, held there artificially to encourage the shift to EVs, but not affecting other petroleum usage or product prices. Take the surcharge and drive down income tax, but provide a tax break for incomes under $75,000, tied to gas usage somehow.

Or simply make better and cheaper EV's with a good charging infrastructure and let people buy what they want.

 

[RickMachE]

Or simply make better and cheaper EV's with a good charging infrastructure and let people buy what they want.

It will take too long, and too many will never do that.

Sponsored