Uh Oh

[RickMachE]

No question that demands for all vehicles have fallen, but the question that we're debating in this thread is: "is there a bigger gap in demand for EV vs prediction as compared to ICE." No one is debating that we're moving away from ICE.

No, that's not what has been debated. People are pushing that demand for EVs has fallen. With EV sales up and forecasted to continue to go up, that's a false narrative.

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[Mach1E]

Based off the same article the MME has a 214 day supply compared to the Lincoln Aviator at 403 days supply. So, here is my question, does that mean then that the demand for the Lincoln Aviator has fallen? Or does it mean that, since I found one model of ICE vehicle that demand has fallen, that just MUST mean demand for all ICE has fallen?

I believe you are trying to make the point that demand for EVs has fallen. That is a true point, but demand for *** ALL *** vehicles has fallen, from that same article:



So you picked two models to show that the EV model is much worse, but then I picked the exact opposite showing an ICE model that is much worse than an EV model. The reality is, we can play this game all day if you want.

The issue is, again, the demand for *** ALL *** vehicles has fallen. You can't pick two vehicles in two different market segments and come to ANY conclusion. Look at the market, as a whole, and even then you can likely only come to some really vague maybe-accurate-maybe-not kindof almost conclusions.

Days of supply is the measure of how quickly a vehicle is selling.

Total sales is a measure of total demand.


So while EVs are sitting on lots, of total sales are up……. Total demand is up.

All these numbers tell us is that currently-

Supply is outstripping demand.

This DOES NOT mean that demand is decreasing, just that supply increased faster than demand.

Solution? Build less EVs until demand can catch up and they won’t sit so long on the lots.

The problem is that we were in such short supply a couple years ago that manufacturers over produced hoping that trend would continue.

 

[Mach1E]

No question that demands for all vehicles have fallen, but the question that we're debating in this thread is: "is there a bigger gap in demand for EV vs prediction as compared to ICE." No one is debating that we're moving away from ICE.

I want more EVs. I'm an ideal EV owner. I can charge at home, have solar, and travel less than 100 miles a day. I can also afford to rent an ICE car for long trips if I don't feel like using DCFC. But I'm well aware that not everyone is in my situation. And the hard push to EV may be too ambitious and can seriously hurt a lot of people.

The only way to say “demand has fallen” is if total sales are down. At least for EVs i believe the opposite is true.

The issue is that supplies are up, not that demand is down.

Now it is true the pace at which demand is increasing is less. But that’s kinda like how “inflation is down” this year, but that doesn’t mean prices are down, they’re just rising……at a slower pace.

Fun with statistics!

 

[Ghost Ryder]

No, that's not what has been debated. People are pushing that demand for EVs has fallen. With EV sales up and forecasted to continue to go up, that's a false narrative.

EV prices has dropped significantly in the past year. Since Tesla makes up about majority of EV sales in the US. Do you think Tesla would of sold the same number of cars if they kept their prices the same as they were in 2022? I don't think they would, and neither would ford. It could be argue that sales would be down in 2023 vs 2022 if it wasn't for the drastic price cuts. And even with that, there's a glut of EVs for sale.

 

[TheSteelRider]

Days of supply is the measure of how quickly a vehicle is selling.

Total sales is a measure of total demand.


So while EVs are sitting on lots, of total sales are up……. Total demand is up.

All these numbers tell us is that currently-

Supply is outstripping demand.

This DOES NOT mean that demand is decreasing, just that supply increased faster than demand.

Solution? Build less EVs until demand can catch up and they won’t sit so long on the lots.

The problem is that we were in such short supply a couple years ago that manufacturers over produced hoping that trend would continue.

Good point, by trying to be succinct and attempting to respond to a single point with a single point, I fell into the same trap I was trying to show that others are falling into with this debate ... "demand falling" vs. "growth rate slowing down".

 

[Exordium01]

Not everybody is cool with changes regardless of whether they are real or perceived. If you go to ICE vehicle forums, everybody spends all their time complaining about auto start/stop.

 

[music_cities]

There are a lot of older homes out there where the electrical panel will need to be upgraded to use Lvl 2 charging. And that's cost prohibitive for a lot of people.

Actually that's not true at all anymore. If there's no spare breaker spot on the panel they can install the device that allows them to share their electric clothes dryer circuit. These have typically been sold as stand-alone devices for people who have their laundry in or near their garage, but they can also be bought by electricians to be hardwired near the panel. This gives 24amp charging on a 30amp circuit which is fast enough for most people: if they're doing back-to-back 100% to 0% road trips or commutes on subsequent days they might have to find a nearby DCFS, but most people don't do that.

If there is a spare 240V breaker spot on the panel, if their panel main service isn't large enough to take the load of an EV, they just need an EVEMS.

 

[mccdeuce]

You said most people cannot charge at home. The article says that a survey of 3,104 buyers between Feb and July showed 1/3 had no place to charge at home. Survey average showed 27% couldn't charge at home. That's not anywhere near most.

If you go to the source, Autolist, the actual reasons listed for not buying an EV were the words "Charging Access at home". Further examination shows lack of place to charge at home (or inability to install a charger) are viewed as a hurdle most acutely particularly for lower-income shoppers.

Nowhere does it say "they cannot install a charger due to their electrical system not being able to handle it". Nowhere.

https://www.autolist.com/news-and-analysis/2023-survey-electric-vehicles

I'd also point out that among more well to do consumers, the ignorance of the ability to get free / subsidized EV chargers from utility companies is huge (I use the term "huge" without backup...). On a FB page dedicated to SE Michigan, I posted that our utility gives a $500 rebate (and that you can get a 30% tax credit for the rest) and it was amazing how many people had no idea this existed.

I'd also point out that a large percentage of the population of people that bought EVSEs has no idea there is a 30% tax credit for it and any wiring. Plus, there is now a 30% tax credit to upgrade your electrical service...

I would also throw out that while Level 2 charging is far better - for 1 year we are renting and are surviving just fine on level 1. access to chargers is not adjusted to people’s beliefs of what they “need” no different than the guy who won’t have an EV till the range is over 500 miles.

 

[HuntingPudel]

Re: Used value: No big deal to me. My Blazer is probably worth more than I paid for it when I bought it used. My T/A is definitely worth more than I paid for it when I bought it new. Those suppositions do not include the modifications I have done to those cars. If one includes that, I'm definitely under water on the Blazer, possibly break-even on the T/A (but more likely under water there too). I probably won't keep the MME as long as I have kept those cars though. ?‍? LOL even if I keep it the rest of my life I won't have owned it as long as I have owned the T/A up to this point. ??

 

[Mach1E]

EV prices has dropped significantly in the past year. Since Tesla makes up about majority of EV sales in the US. Do you think Tesla would of sold the same number of cars if they kept their prices the same as they were in 2022? I don't think they would, and neither would ford. It could be argue that sales would be down in 2023 vs 2022 if it wasn't for the drastic price cuts. And even with that, there's a glut of EVs for sale.

Who knows?

But now we are going back to macro economics 101 (literally a college course) and talking about demand vs quantity demanded (they are two different things). Demand is the curve, quantity demanded is the amount people would buy at specific points (prices) on the curve.

Unless the forum is full of business majors it’s just going to confuse the issue or put people to sleep. ?

Chart for the business nerds-

 

[Ghost Ryder]

I would also throw out that while Level 2 charging is far better - for 1 year we are renting and are surviving just fine on level 1. access to chargers is not adjusted to people’s beliefs of what they “need” no different than the guy who won’t have an EV till the range is over 500 miles.

FOr Lvl 1 charging you get about 2-4 miles per hour, so let's say 3 miles. If you leave it on the charger for 24 hours then that would be around 70 miles of added range per day. But that assumes that you don't go anywhere. So if your car is unplugged for 12 hours, that leaves you with 35miles of recharged miles per day. Assuming that the avg commute is 30 miles, that does not leave a lot room to do anything else.

So Lvl may be doable, but not worth the trade off for most people in my opinion.

 

[ridgebackpilot]

You can’t take Hertz’s experience as indicative of any trends. First, they sell their entire rental car fleet every couple of years anyway, so that’s normal.

Second, people with no experience in EVs don’t rent EVs! Why would they? They know nothing about charging, range, etc. so I’m not surprised at the attitude of rental car companies like Hertz.

 

[RickMachE]

You can’t take Hertz’s experience as indicative of any trends. First, they sell their entire rental car fleet every couple of years anyway, so that’s normal.

Second, people with no experience in EVs don’t rent EVs! Why would they? They know nothing about charging, range, etc. so I’m not surprised at the attitude of rental car companies like Hertz.

Third, they are owned by private equity.
Fourth, they announced the buy while in bankruptcy to make a splash.

 

[LF699]

"Are you less likely to buy an EV this year versus a year ago?" - Answer, Yes?

"Is that because gas prices are down?" "Is that due to the economy"? "Is that due to interest rates"? "Is that due to your personal situation?" "Is that due to ____"?

The ridiculous number of negative EV articles we didn't use to see.

 

[ridgebackpilot]

My wife encountered rental car EV drivers recently. She was charging her Mach-E on a Level 2 charger at a hotel near SFO airport. Three Asian visitors showed up in a rental Tesla with about 5 miles range left. They had no clue about range or charging and just happened to see the hotel chargers.

She kindly unplugged and let them use the charger to get back on the road. This incident reminded us that many people who rent EVs have no clue how to operate or charge them.

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