Uh Oh

[Blue highway]

Also keep in mind the EV prices last year were skewed greatly by Tesla dropping their prices $15k-$50k per model. And Tesla still sells more electric cars than anyone.

Prices for sure have to come down to increase EV adoption.

But at the same time, prices need to stay high enough for manufacturers to make a profit or they won’t build the cars.

Currently we are at a crossroads.

If the EV market can’t make them both affordable and profitable, it will fall apart.

To me the main plot line is that EV's will continue along the S curve for adoption here as it is in China and Europe. EVs in Europe already cost ~ same as ICE cars.

If legacy car companies can not figure out how to make them economically viable, we will eventually replace the legacy auto industry with Tesla, BYD, and other Chinese car companies... and/or endure protectionist tariffs on imported cars.

A sub plot is that the segment of the market that is shifting fastest from ICE to EVs is the luxury market. (BMW, Mercedes etc.)

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[Old_Norm]

Facts: (see link)
Interest in EVs is not declining.
Sales of EVs are are at an all time high. (growth declined to 42% YOY growth... )
https://www.energy.gov/articles/correcting-record-about-electric-vehicle-sales#:~:text=According to a survey done,meet the surge in demand.


Pundits saying EV demand is slowing are simply wrong.
1) they mostly have an axe to grind
2) they are confusing a huge ramp up in supply with declining demand.

Thanks for posting something other than personal opinion. That article must have been written by Pollyanna. So,"...manufacturers have recognized this shift and are investing heavily in electric vehicles to meet the surge in demand."

• General Motors, Ford and others are putting the brakes on some of their EV production plans as consumer adoption lags behind expectations. Ford, for example, announced in September it was pausing construction of its $3.5 billion EV factory in Marshall, Michigan, after sluggish sales of its F-150 Lightning and other EVs prompted it to roll back its $50 billion production expansion plans.
• Honda (7267.T) and General Motors (GM.N) announced they were ending a $5 billion plan to develop lower-cost EVs together just a year after announcing the effort. GM on Tuesday said it would focus near-term EV efforts on meeting demand rather than hitting specific volume targets.
• EV inventories have increased by 506% from a year ago, with EVs sitting on lots for longer, according to CarGurus’ October report, released this month. EVs sit on the market an average 82 days versus 64 days for gas-powered vehicles, it said. In response to slowing demand, automakers like Ford and GM are cutting production. R

WHY ELECTRIC VEHICLE INTEREST IS STAGNATING AT THE WORST POSSIBLE TIME
https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/why-electric-vehicle-interest-stagnating-worst-possible-time

Personally, I hope interest in BEVs soars. Not only for the obvious reasons but for my own self interest. Only time will tell.

 

[VaporTrails]

Until our infrastructure improves, I think EVs have saturated the market. Those that want EVs for the most part have bought them.

Most people can not charge at home. Whether it's because they're renting, or it's cost prohibitive to upgrade their electrical system, EV ownership does not make sense for their situation.

I don’t totally agree with your first point. A lot of folks don’t go out and buy a new car every three years. The average is more like 8 years. Automakers expect folks to buy a new car every 3-4 years. Only 22 percent of the US population can even afford a new car. The expectation that the car-buying public is going to agree that electrification is the way to go is not realistic. The momentum is still building. Last year at this time, I could count the Tesla’s I saw at one a day. Now it is every time I am out. In a normal conversation, 2/3rds is still FUD-busting. The media has done a great job lacing seconds of truths with hours of fear.

I totally agree on the renting part of the population. If the only DCFC is at the local power company office, that won’t do.

 

[Blue highway]

Thanks for posting something other than personal opinion. That article must have been written by Pollyanna. So,"...manufacturers have recognized this shift and are investing heavily in electric vehicles to meet the surge in demand."

• General Motors, Ford and others are putting the brakes on some of their EV production plans as consumer adoption lags behind expectations. Ford, for example, announced in September it was pausing construction of its $3.5 billion EV factory in Marshall, Michigan, after sluggish sales of its F-150 Lightning and other EVs prompted it to roll back its $50 billion production expansion plans.
• Honda (7267.T) and General Motors (GM.N) announced they were ending a $5 billion plan to develop lower-cost EVs together just a year after announcing the effort. GM on Tuesday said it would focus near-term EV efforts on meeting demand rather than hitting specific volume targets.
• EV inventories have increased by 506% from a year ago, with EVs sitting on lots for longer, according to CarGurus’ October report, released this month. EVs sit on the market an average 82 days versus 64 days for gas-powered vehicles, it said. In response to slowing demand, automakers like Ford and GM are cutting production. R

WHY ELECTRIC VEHICLE INTEREST IS STAGNATING AT THE WORST POSSIBLE TIME
https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/why-electric-vehicle-interest-stagnating-worst-possible-time

Personally, I hope interest in BEVs soars. Not only for the obvious reasons but for my own self interest. Only time will tell.

Well if Polyanna used facts instead of hyperbole then yeah.

the bullets above are cherry picking...

for balance you should include:
https://electrek.co/2023/12/05/hyundai-exports-hit-new-record-driven-by-strong-demand-evs/

and for broader perspective... EV sales in the US look like the chart below. Sorry... the narrative that demand is slowing is wrong... In lots of cases it's just lazy thinking. In other cases it's an agenda.

If demand is down, then clearly EV sales will decline in 2024 vs 2023... right? any bet takers?

EV sales will grow in 2024 over 2023 in the US, because demand is growing... at the same time lots of car companies have excess capacity. Both are true at the same time.

 

[Mach1E]

To me the main plot line is that EV's will continue along the S curve for adoption here as it is in China and Europe. EVs in Europe already cost ~ same as ICE cars.

If legacy car companies can not figure out how to make them economically viable, we will eventually replace the legacy auto industry with Tesla, BYD, and other Chinese car companies... and/or endure protectionist tariffs on imported cars.

A sub plot is that the segment of the market that is shifting fastest from ICE to EVs is the luxury market. (BMW, Mercedes etc.)

That theory only works if we assume that profitable and popular gas vehicles go away.

 

[Old_Norm]

Well if Polyanna used facts instead of hyperbole then yeah.

the bullets above are cherry picking...

for balance you should include:
https://electrek.co/2023/12/05/hyundai-exports-hit-new-record-driven-by-strong-demand-evs/

and for broader perspective... EV sales in the US look like the chart below. Sorry... the narrative that demand is slowing is wrong... In lots of cases it's just lazy thinking. In other cases it's an agenda.

If demand is down, then clearly EV sales will decline in 2024 vs 2023... right? any bet takers?

EV sales will grow in 2024 over 2023 in the US, because demand is growing... at the same time lots of car companies have excess capacity. Both are true at the same time.

But you weren't cherry picking? Again, past sale are no indication of future sales. "EV sales will grow in 2024 over 2023 in the US..." you are trying to prove your point with something that is unprovable. Why don't you place a sizeable bet that your team will do better next year because they did better this year? I really hope you are right. But obviously the manufacturers don't think so.

 

[Blue highway]

But you weren't cherry picking? Again, past sale are no indication of future sales. "EV sales will grow in 2024 over 2023 in the US..." you are trying to prove your point with something that is unprovable. Why don't you place a sizeable bet that your team will do better next year because they did better this year? I really hope you are right. But obviously the manufacturers don't think so.

"obviously the manufactures don't think this" - Nonsense. Most don't think Their sales are going to go up YOY. They see a glut of new models coming into the market... the same is not true for ICE.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-number-of-ev-models-will-double-by-2024/

https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/advice/future-electric-cars

Do you think EV sales will increase or decrease in 2024? I'll bet a donut they go up. You seem willing to bet a donut they go down.

 

[Old_Norm]

"obviously the manufactures don't think this" - Nonsense. Most don't think Their sales are going to go up YOY. They see a glut of new models coming into the market... the same is not true for ICE.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-number-of-ev-models-will-double-by-2024/

https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/advice/future-electric-cars

Do you think EV sales will increase or decrease in 2024? I'll bet a donut they go up. You seem willing to bet a donut they go down.

I hope they go up, considerably. I think interest in BEVs is dropping but I wish it wasn't. I'm still very much interested in BEVs. But I'm not everyone else.

This looks like a retreat, not a charge:

"General Motors, Ford and others are putting the brakes on some of their EV production plans as consumer adoption lags behind expectations. Ford, for example, announced in September it was pausing construction of its $3.5 billion EV factory in Marshall, Michigan, after sluggish sales of its F-150 Lightning and other EVs prompted it to roll back its $50 billion production expansion plans."

Honda (7267.T) and General Motors (GM.N) announced they were ending a $5 billion plan to develop lower-cost EVs together just a year after announcing the effort. GM on Tuesday said it would focus near-term EV efforts on meeting demand rather than hitting specific volume targets.

EV inventories have increased by 506% from a year ago, with EVs sitting on lots for longer, according to CarGurus’ October report, released this month. EVs sit on the market an average 82 days versus 64 days for gas-powered vehicles, it said. In response to slowing demand, automakers like Ford and GM are cutting production.

 

[Mach1E]

"obviously the manufactures don't think this" - Nonsense. Most don't think Their sales are going to go up YOY. They see a glut of new models coming into the market... the same is not true for ICE.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-number-of-ev-models-will-double-by-2024/

https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/advice/future-electric-cars

Do you think EV sales will increase or decrease in 2024? I'll bet a donut they go up. You seem willing to bet a donut they go down.

Sales will probably still go up.

But sales per model? Jury is out.

Like you said, a “glut” of new models coming to market.

And if each model isn’t profitable, you will see companies delay release and cut production expectations like they already did in 2023.

Ford doesn’t care if the entire BEV market grows if their sales of Mach E and Lightning models stagnate or decline before they hit the tipping point for profitability.

2 years ago Ford predicted 4 Lincoln EV models for 2024.

So far we have zero for the above reasons.

 

[azerik]

I’m in for doughnuts.
Just saying.

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