Washington State will ban ICE cars by 2030

[dbsb3233]

He's so prone to gross exaggeration in his prediction timelines regarding cars/EVs. But it helps him sell books from those that eat it up.

"Conventional cars obsolete by 2030". ? And that timeline is less crazy that the one I heard him use in a prior video. Some of his broader points are actually good about what's coming, but he ruins it with some crazy timeline predictions.

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[LagerHead]

You are right about that - the transition to 90% EV sales will be driven by free-market economics, not government policies. Government policies can speed the transition but it's going to happen naturally regardless. I'm less in favor of immediate subsidies (although given the oil and gas subsidies I don't think they are inappropriate) and more in favor of laws like the recent one in Washington that projects 9 years into the future. Laws like this can create more certainty in times of disruption which is important for planning properly during such times. If the government gets the timing wrong by erring too quickly, it's a simple matter to create an extension. If they err on the side of too late - no harm done - it still would have fulfilled the purpose of helping people prepare for the disruption.

 

[LagerHead]

Yes, we know. You have made that clear repeatedly.

But you or I couldn't stop it if we tried.

 

[LagerHead]

Guess what every one of those things have in common?... Huge quantum leaps in functionality for the consumer.

EVs (relative to ICE) don't. They're still just cars that drive the same, and haul the same (actually less until batteries get good enough to power bigger vehicles). There's some pros and some cons in the refueling (home refueling is a plus, public refueling is a minus), but that's roughly a wash. As far as most consumers are concerned, EVs really don't do more for them than the alternative they're coming from. Unlike all those other things you listed.

Without that natural incentive from a quantum leap in functionality, the transition will take much longer. "Being green" is of minor interest to most consumers. But indoor plumbing (vs going to the river)... toilets (vs the outhouse)... TVs (vs singing around the fireplace)... you betcha!

Tony Seba understands how a cheaper way of doing things better drives adoption. Money is a powerful incentive and EV's already save people with long commutes a substantial amount each year. That improves their quality of life. Not needing to deal with or pay for periodic oil and filter services adds to their quality of life. Having a car that doesn't require annual smog checks adds to their quality of life. Having a safe care is important to many people. Not needing a weekly trip to the gas station saves time.

Tony Seba knows people are not willing to pay more for less. That's what drives adoptions - it's primarily economic in nature. People naturally want a higher standard of living. That you don't understand this shows you either didn't see or didn't pay attention to his presentation on disruption. Because he emphasises the economics of the free market driving this revolution and all his numbers are based on the economics of the clean energy disruption. Battery and EV price curves vs. ICE, electricity prices vs. gasoline, volume of production driving costs lower. It's all very straightforward. Batteries and EV's are gaining additional price-reducing synergies through increasing volumes of production while ICE cannot because volumes are no longer increasing. As ICE volumes fall, so will volume efficiencies, a little at first and accelerating right when EV sales are hitting their stride. These are not so much predictions as they are natural market laws. And consumers are very price sensitive to this and the additional benefits of EV's add additional tailwinds for a perfect storm.

If you are empowered with knowledge about how disruption works it's not even speculative - it's a given.

 

[LagerHead]

Even if I had the book at my disposal, I wouldn't look up information for you simply because you don't have the initiative to read it yourself. I have made millions of dollars of both realized and unrealized profits by learning about this disruption which is already unstoppable. I didn't do it by asking random people on the Internet to look up page numbers for me.

Do you realize how ridiculous you're being? I can point you in the right direction but I'm not going to hold your hand.

 

[LagerHead]

He's so prone to gross exaggeration in his prediction timelines regarding cars/EVs. But it helps him sell books from those that eat it up.

"Conventional cars obsolete by 2030". ? And that timeline is less crazy that the one I heard him use in a prior video. Some of his broader points are actually good about what's coming, but he ruins it with some crazy timeline predictions.

Tony Seba did not predict conventional cars would go obsolete before 2030. It appears you are lying about what he actually said in a transparent attempt to discredit the man.

That doesn't work with me.

 

[LagerHead]

Huh?

I already explained how government policies have helped kick-start the adoption of cleaner technologies. That was the common goal of all clean-energy policies. Once the tipping point has been reached, it's unstoppable. And we have already passed the economic tipping point thanks in part to government policies around the world. It would have happened without government help but it would have taken longer to reach the tipping point. Remember, volumes drive prices down.

 

[buffasnow]

In my opinion, this is exactly why those of us in "first world" situations need to suck it up and do more than the bare minimum, even if it involves some pain and $, to drive renewable energy and clean transportation research/adoption. If *we* don't do it now, I don't think it will develop quickly enough to allow inexpensive adoption by the planet's less fortunate citizens and make a global difference before it's too late. Being a leader in clean power would be economically advantageous as well.

I also don't believe that the environment is the exclusive concern of "first world rich people" - it's just that we have more capacity to make larger scale positive change.

Been watching Snowpiercer lately. Brrrr.

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