dbsb3233
Well-Known Member
- First Name
- TimCO
- Joined
- Dec 30, 2019
- Threads
- 54
- Messages
- 9,299
- Reaction score
- 10,814
- Location
- Colorado, USA
- Vehicles
- 2021 Mustang Mach-E FE, 2023 Bronco Sport OB
- Occupation
- Retired
Agree with most of your points (I presume you meant 2024-2025). Although I'll throw one offset in there -- charging time. I agree with you that we're going to see major growth in BEV market share this decade. I think we could see something like 30% market share by the end of the decade, maybe more as battery density improves and cost comes down.I just sent in my reservation for the Ocean. I own Tesla Model S for 7 years and has been following the battery technology since then. The technology is now going through the transition with better chemistry, battery w/o cobalt, solid state and others. They are denser, cheaper with faster charging. I like the Mach E but they use the generic lithium ion battery (not even close to Tesla's version, cost/performance) but it makes sense if Ocean does not have a fixed term contract (3+ years), I can quit the lease anytime I want to and go with another EV using the next gen. battery. I predict by 2014-2015, the 2nd gen battery will be in production and this may be the time the ICE car owners will start buying EV in massive. EV price will be on par with ICE cars. Model S was expensive 7 years ago was due to $200+ per KW battery. Today they are closer to $100/KW, it make a hugh difference in cost.
However, unless charging times improve significantly, that will be a big limiting factor preventing BEVs from reaching 60%... 70%... 80% market share. For the people that don't have their own house and garage to charge overnight, BEV practicality gets much tougher. Then it will track more how well apartments and condos and workplaces can flood their secure parking lots with L2 chargers reserved for their tenants/employees.
Sponsored