Summer is my limit even if there is nothing else around that excites me BEV wise (and there isn’t). I don’t actually need a new car. I want a new MME but I don’t need it. I can get by quite fine in my old Tacoma for quite a few more years.
Fortunately, Ford is still holding to it's delivery schedule with deliveries starting in late 2020 for all but GTs and GTs in late summer 2021. With a 35,000-series reservation I think a spring delivery is a pretty solid estimate if COVID-19 doesn't get in the way. Of course, if COVID-19 pushes back the MME, it will likely be pushing back lots of new BEVs.
If it's a US order, I'm thinking a res# of 35,000 might make it even sooner than that. By the time you strip out the European numbers, the GTs, the ones that will have canceled, and all the gaps in the numbers, #35,000 could end up being something like #10,000 in the production queue, possibly making to into an earlier run.
I still don't understand how they pulled up the delivery dates on the Select and Rt 1 - I would think that means all FE and Premiums should all be delivered this year (in the US)...I can't see how they would sacrifice the delivery of Premiums for those other two models that were always slated for early 2021 delivery...
Agreed. I would put it as a low probability for Run 1 and probably no later than Run 2. However, the answer probably lies more in the timing of the EU/UK units than anything else.
We've heard the answer here on this Forum: there are Premium reservation holders who want their car delivered in 2021. Others who are still on the fence. When Ford moved up deliveries for Select and CA Route 1 to late 2020 they were basically saying they plan to mix some of these into the production before the full run of Premiums. They still reiterate that the FEs will all be delivered first (NA FEs first among NA deliveries, EU/UK first among their deliveries). They've never said all the Premium would come out before any Select/CA Route 1.
I like your logic! Still holding out hope that I might get my MME by year's end! I'm 10024000 series order/res number (Premium AWD).
Hope away but don't start counting those chickens yet. With 10,000 units being produced before the end of the year and probably at least half going to EU/UK delivery, I'd put a big maybe on 20,000-series reservations being produced by the end of the year and a no on 40,000.
Yeah, #40,000 would be a real stretch. I'm in the 29k's and I figure less than 10% chance by year-end. I'm picking February in my theoretical "which month?" pool. ?
Yeah, I concur. I actually was thinking late winter 2021 when I made the rez in February. Prepandemic of course. I have no reason to think that it'll slide into summer atm. But that is the limit for me.
When I shipped my car from Oahu to SoCal, it took 2 weeks, pier to pier.Yeah, I concur. I actually was thinking late winter 2021 when I made the rez in February. Prepandemic of course. I have no reason to think that it'll slide into summer atm. But that is the limit for me.
My best guess with shipping atm is mid to late May. Seriously. Train to SoCal (either directly or via Texas), Ship to Honolulu, barge to Hilo, driven to the dealer. The ocean crossing is 4 days once it's on board. Usually, about a week on the docks before the ship collects it and sails. The car will sit in Honolulu harbor for up to 2 weeks before being shipped to Hilo. It'll sit there for about 2 to 3 days (they charge a fee after 3 days) before being driven the 2.75 miles to the dealer. And the Lord knows how long before the local dealer actually lets me know its ready. They aren't the swiftest or best example of good "dealershiping" for Ford.
BTW Winter runs until March 19, 2021. Summer starts on June 20, 2021.
Shipped our Raptor in March from Oakland to Hilo. About a month shipping time from drop off to pick up availability.
It is a total guess - the fact that Ford moved up the Select and Rt. 1 deliveries in NA to late 2020 has me scratching my head at what that means for the delivery of Premiums...I ordered a Premium mainly because it would be here before the Rt. 1...so will a person who ordered a Rt. 1 now get it before I get my Premium??? Seems odd, and out of alignment...from a marketing standpoint, it makes no sense that Ford would sacrifice Premium consumers in that way.Breaking it down a bit: There are "roughly" 5000 GT orders deducted from the NA total allotment for run's 1 and 2. That leaves 15,000 customer non GT cars to build. Next, add in the dealer cars for NA, about 2000 (?) that means 17,000 NA cars to build in runs 1 and 2 (mostly but not exclusively). And that doesn't factor in the EU cars (30,000) or EU dealer cars. So if we have the NA dealers cars built during run 1, that leaves 8,000 cars or so to customers from run 1. If any are going to the EU at all (It's highly probable there will be "some") that reduces the NA cars available yet further.
So at the end of run 1 (pre Christmas) Ford will have at least another 12,000 non GT cars to build for NA heading into run 2. Run will likely focus on EU cars due to the transit times from assembly so that the predicted delivery season start doesn't slip even further. They might be able to get the remaining NA cars during run 2 or nearly so, but that's a bit optimistic IMO. It's more likely they'll get 75%+ of the remaining or somewhere north of 6,000 with remainder sliding into run 3.
So the real question for everyone other than GT and FE orders is where they think they are in the NA order scheme. Top 25%, bottom 25%. Nobody except Ford knows, and they're not telling.
And coronavirus may have other ideas as to how we do things. Given the mess of a year this has been, it's debatable just how many additional cancelations there will be compared to a "normal" year.
And actual plant output is also a variable. Push it up to 13,000 during run 1 and higher during the others? Earlier delivery for most (Except GT's -- sorry)
These are the things I think about while mowing the 2 acres around the house.
