Blue highway
Well-Known Member
- First Name
- Steve
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- Oct 15, 2021
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- Oregon
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- Mach E Premium SR RWD
I think you hit on an important point. Queuing theory can easily model how many chargers are needed for any given arrival rate, charge time, and wait queue. The problem is the stations are really expensive and having enough to have small queues waiting for charge at peak times is economically abysmal because they are empty almost all the time. If things stay this way, ultimately I see three paths.One of the tricky things is the sporadic/random nature of people charging via DCFC. Which makes it difficult to build expensive stations that will get enough business to support themselves, but also enough capacity for peak times.
Unlike gasoline, most EV charging takes place at home/work/hotel on L2. Which means locals typically won't be giving business to nearby DCFC stations. That's where most of the regular/routine business comes from that supports a gas station.
Travel routes are supported mostly by travelers, but the 20-30 minute charge duration makes it tricky to right-size a station. When a gas station fills up and cars back up 2 or 3 deep, it's not a biggie because it's maybe a 5-10 minute wait. But when that happens at a DCFC station, a 30-60 minute wait is a much bigger deal. But doubling the # of chargers there to avoid that is very costly, and they'll sit empty without revenue the other 95% of the time.
It will help some when the chargers themselves are manufactured at higher volumes and the costs come down, but that doesn't help expensive labor costs for installation and maintenance. It may just come down to significantly higher charging prices, especially when the taxpayer subsidies start drying up.
1) Big government subsidies to make long distance EV road trips work for the masses (kinda like how the interstates are paid for)
2) We stick with gas cars for long road trips and/or tolerate really long queues at out of town chargers on holiday weekends
3) The Tesla model is actually right, where buyers pay a big premium for a dedicated charging network.
I wonder if the golden age of electric car travel is actually now. Just (barely) enough chargers and rarely any wait.
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