Senate Bill Deal to Expand EV Tax Credits (7/27/2022)

[mjs020294]

I wonder what criteria they have on the $4k tax credit on used EVs? Note to self read the thread before posting


Tesla have already updated the website order process to show the $7500 credit.

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[ARK]

True. But...

It's about the longterm. You know this of course. In reality, turns out among the American people demand for EVs is insanely low, right now like 90% would NEVER EVER consider buying one, just currently the supply of EVs for that insanely low demand is temporarily far far lower. The bill seeks longterm adoption from the majority of Americans in the coming decades. Let's see currently 2%(?) of the cars on the road in the USA are EVs and that may reach 3%(?) next year. If every person in the USA bought only EVs this year and every year after, it would take greater than 20 years for the majority of cars on the road to no longer need gasoline.

I think that's changing. According to a recent AAA survey, a quarter of Americans said they want their next car purchase to be an EV.

 

[dbsb3233]

True. But...

It's about the longterm. You know this of course. In reality, turns out among the American people demand for EVs is insanely low, right now like 90% would NEVER EVER consider buying one, just currently the supply of EVs for that insanely low demand is temporarily far far lower. The bill seeks longterm adoption from the majority of Americans in the coming decades. Let's see currently 2%(?) of the cars on the road in the USA are EVs and that may reach 3%(?) next year. If every person in the USA bought only EVs this year and every year after, it would take greater than 20 years for the majority of cars on the road to no longer need gasoline.

Even if that were the case, then the time to consider new subsidies is when EV demand peters out and falls below supply. Not now when demand is FAR outpacing supply. To the point where many people are on waiting lists for a year or more. It's just a waste of money now.

Personally, I don't think demand for EVs will be petering out though. I think they'll sell themselves as simply being great products and competitive in their own right vs ICE. Not for every single use, but for most. Especially as the DCFC network and residential charging greatly expands year after year.

The reason such a small% of sales in the US have been EVs is because most of them were dogs prior to 2021. It took battery tech advancing enough and costs falling enough over the last decade to make great, desirable vehicles like the Mach-E, Lightning, ID.4, EV6, etc. Those are the type of vehicles with acceptable enough range that Americans want. Along with charging networks like EA building out enough of a grid to do road trips. That wasn't the case even just 2 years ago (other than Tesla but they were proprietary unto themselves).

 

[dbsb3233]

I wonder what criteria they have on the $4k tax credit on used EVs? Note to self read the thread before posting


Tesla have already updated the website order process to show the $7500 credit.

Be fun to watch how much their 2023 prices go up with it.

 

[dbsb3233]

I think that's changing. According to a recent AAA survey, a quarter of Americans said they want their next car purchase to be an EV.

Frankly, other than Tesla (and all the noisy distortion that comes with them), the real US EV era began with the Mach-E (and the ID.4, and a few others). Before that EVs were niche. They went US mainstream in 2021 (including the flood of TV ads). The Rivian and Lightning that followed further solidified that.

That also roughly coincided with when the Electrify America build-out reached a critical mass for being able to road trip most of the lower-48. Not all, of course, but enough to say that you can reach most regions of the country now without sweating bullets and having to sit at some L2 chargers for 6 hours during the day.

The tipping point has been surpassed in the US. EVs have become mainstream, and the momentum will feed on itself. What we need now is a push for apartment/condo L2. Not the cars themselves. They don't need a push anymore.

 

[summerlinLV]

Is home charging station tax credit included in this bill?

 

[voxel]

Frankly, other than Tesla (and all the noisy distortion that comes with them), the real US EV era began with the Mach-E (and the ID.4, and a few others). Before that EVs were niche. They went US mainstream in 2021 (including the flood of TV ads). The Rivian and Lightning that followed further solidified that.

That also roughly coincided with when the Electrify America build-out reached a critical mass for being able to road trip most of the lower-48. Not all, of course, but enough to say that you can reach most regions of the country now without sweating bullets and having to sit at some L2 chargers for 6 hours during the day.

The tipping point has been surpassed in the US. EVs have become mainstream, and the momentum will feed on itself. What we need now is a push for apartment/condo L2. Not the cars themselves. They don't need a push anymore.

I still argue that ID.4 and Mach-E are niche. The total amount of sales of those two combined in 1.5 years (approx 75K) is about two months output at Tesla Freemont. Those two EVs could disappear and it would be a blip in the total EV sales in the US.

The rise of EA helping EV adoption doesn't explain how Tesla sales basically doubled then doubled again. Tesla will probably sell 450-500K EVs in the US this year. The Mach-E is second place might sell 50K.

About 6-8 years ago there was flood of EVs in my office (with free charging). Probably 20+ Leafs, Fiat 500e, Bolts, Volts, etc. that was all due to the first EV tax credit. All of these EVs are long gone.

I argue EVs somewhere in 2020 hit a minimum range/quality level (including Tesla) that folks found acceptable as a primary car. Also the car shortage in 2021 caused folks to look elsewhere and EVs were available at the time.

 

[Orangefirefish]

I'd like to point out the irony of complaining about an upwards wealth transfer (the goal of capitalism) and complaining about not leaving it up to capitalism only to go on to advocate for a very socialist solution. For the record I agree with you that would be the most efficient and direct way to make an impact. But the round about way of those more efficient ICE cars being sold used at lower price to replace old guzzlers while an EV indirectly replaced it in the hands of the first car's former owner works too.

Of course. I think there has to be a balance though, and my point is that if the taxpayers are going to foot the bill then it should go to where it’s going to make a lot of impact. In general though I still think these are all band-aid solutions until renewables are the norm. Right now if we don’t change how much we drive, regardless of what we drive, then it’s all a false economy.

 

[dbsb3233]

I still argue that ID.4 and Mach-E are niche. The total amount of sales of those two combined in 1.5 years (approx 75K) is about two months output at Tesla Freemont. Those two EVs could disappear and it would be a blip in the total EV sales in the US.

The rise of EA helping EV adoption doesn't explain how Tesla sales basically doubled then doubled again. Tesla will probably sell 450-500K EVs in the US this year. The Mach-E is second place might sell 50K.

About 6-8 years ago there was flood of EVs in my office (with free charging). Probably 20+ Leafs, Fiat 500e, Bolts, Volts, etc. that was all due to the first EV tax credit. All of these EVs are long gone.

I argue EVs somewhere in 2020 hit a minimum range/quality level (including Tesla) that folks found acceptable as a primary car. Also the car shortage in 2021 caused folks to look elsewhere and EVs were available at the time.

In terms of volume, I'd tend to agree (so far). But I was talking more the type of vehicle to get mainstream US buyers interested. The Leaf and it's weak range couldn't do that. The Bolt was better (similarly the Kona and Niro), but they were still seen as kinda weak. And Fiats were always a niche brand for US buyers, as are most of the European makers other than VW. Many of them are high priced too. Americans usually want something a bit bigger.

But the Mach-E hit the sweet spot. Crossover functionality, popular size, ~300 mile range, reasonable price point, styling, features, US manufacturer already big with US buyers, etc.

Which brings us to Tesla. Yes, they did most of that before the Mach-E (minus maybe the styling, arguably). I do give Tesla a lot of credit for being the trailblazer. But they're also proprietary, and kinda dance to the beat of their own drum. They've developed a divisive reputation (although that's probably more stoked by their rabid fans and stock-pushers). While they are very notable within the market, I think it's the legacy automakers that will really move the needle on adoption with most US buyers.

 

[ARK]

Frankly, other than Tesla (and all the noisy distortion that comes with them), the real US EV era began with the Mach-E (and the ID.4, and a few others). Before that EVs were niche. They went US mainstream in 2021 (including the flood of TV ads). The Rivian and Lightning that followed further solidified that.

That also roughly coincided with when the Electrify America build-out reached a critical mass for being able to road trip most of the lower-48. Not all, of course, but enough to say that you can reach most regions of the country now without sweating bullets and having to sit at some L2 chargers for 6 hours during the day.

The tipping point has been surpassed in the US. EVs have become mainstream, and the momentum will feed on itself. What we need now is a push for apartment/condo L2. Not the cars themselves. They don't need a push anymore.

I think the Model Y could go into that category. The Model 3 maybe too, but it was still too unknown to the average person.

The Model Y had a sort of normalness (even though it came right at the start of the pandemic!) that the other Tesla launches did not.

 

[Mach1E]

Of course. I think there has to be a balance though, and my point is that if the taxpayers are going to foot the bill then it should go to where it’s going to make a lot of impact. In general though I still think these are all band-aid solutions until renewables are the norm. Right now if we don’t change how much we drive, regardless of what we drive, then it’s all a false economy.

Exactly.

The end result of the tax credits is the government money goes to the auto manufacturers.

They currently are making RECORD profits. They also are all developing and delivering BEVs.

So why do we need the government to give them more money right now?

Kinda reminds me of the last stimulus checks we got. Gave everyone $ when it wasn’t needed as much anymore. The money all went in the bank and now we have record inflation…….

 

[OrchidMania]

I still argue that ID.4 and Mach-E are niche. The total amount of sales of those two combined in 1.5 years (approx 75K) is about two months output at Tesla Freemont. Those two EVs could disappear and it would be a blip in the total EV sales in the US.

The rise of EA helping EV adoption doesn't explain how Tesla sales basically doubled then doubled again. Tesla will probably sell 450-500K EVs in the US this year. The Mach-E is second place might sell 50K.

About 6-8 years ago there was flood of EVs in my office (with free charging). Probably 20+ Leafs, Fiat 500e, Bolts, Volts, etc. that was all due to the first EV tax credit. All of these EVs are long gone.

I argue EVs somewhere in 2020 hit a minimum range/quality level (including Tesla) that folks found acceptable as a primary car. Also the car shortage in 2021 caused folks to look elsewhere and EVs were available at the time.

I could present the argument that mustang has ALWAYS been a niche market for Ford.
If you look at the numbers only in the late 60's did Ford produce and sell a significant number of them. So even the ICE models are niche, I like being unique as long as Ford is going to keep updating software.

 

[SWO]

I want all EV tax credits gone but this bill isn't that favorable to Tesla.

Model X and S don't qualify... most Model 3 trims don't qualify either either

I still argue that ID.4 and Mach-E are niche. The total amount of sales of those two combined in 1.5 years (approx 75K) is about two months output at Tesla Freemont. Those two EVs could disappear and it would be a blip in the total EV sales in the US.

The rise of EA helping EV adoption doesn't explain how Tesla sales basically doubled then doubled again. Tesla will probably sell 450-500K EVs in the US this year. The Mach-E is second place might sell 50K.

About 6-8 years ago there was flood of EVs in my office (with free charging). Probably 20+ Leafs, Fiat 500e, Bolts, Volts, etc. that was all due to the first EV tax credit. All of these EVs are long gone.

I argue EVs somewhere in 2020 hit a minimum range/quality level (including Tesla) that folks found acceptable as a primary car. Also the car shortage in 2021 caused folks to look elsewhere and EVs were available at the time.

I would argue that the sales figures aren't important. The fact that traditional OEMs were releasing EVs gave them legitimacy. People see an ad for a Mach E and they start researching. They might end up buying a Tesla because they're more available, but it was the MachE ad that made them look.

 

[NoVAguy]

Don't get excited, Sinema will still sink it.



The biggest issue with the current credits is they're non-refundable, so you have to have a higher income to get the full benefit. This is a bigger issue than income or price limits. Though yeah obviously Someone making 200k doesn't need help buying their Taycan. The middle class family might need help buying their Rivan to fit the kids in, though. Granted that example might just be that a high end vehicle is the only full size SUV atm.

Say Manchin continues to support this bill, and Sinema doesn't tank it. The Senate Parliamentarian still has to approve the bill, in its current form, to be allowed to be voted on in the Senate through reconciliation. And this is something she has rejected in the past in Dec 2021 when they tried to get immigration reform passed through reconciliation.

EV stuff a side, this is a pretty wide ranging bill that covers climate, health care, and inflation.
By the time all that gets settled, who knows if Manchin will still be offering his support!

 

[RedStallion]

Yet another reason to bet on inflation and deep recession.

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