Some thoughts on Batteries

[StillWaitingForMachE]

So from what I've read, our batteries should last anywhere from 100k to 500k miles before deterioration means we need to replace them or buy a new car.

For most people (even those who drive a lot), this is 5-10 years of use before needing to replace the batteries.

In 5-10 years, we will likely have solid state batteries, which have a higher energy density as well as being safer, faster charging, and longer lasting. The cost may even be affordable to the point where it would be a viable option to replace the old battery with a fancy new one, especially if battery recycling has been developed.

Perhaps this is a bit of a rose tinted glasses view, but really this would be a good outcome. Because of the minimal moving parts in the electric drivetrain, replacing the battery should allow it to function almost as good as new. So such an option would be more attractive than having to buy an all new car for more money.

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[KrazyEd]

I believe that the warranty is for that length. The expected deterioration is projected to be around
5% per year. That means that after 5 years your 200 mile range would be down to 150. Most
batteries seem to fare better than that.

 

[HuntingPudel]

The hope is that in the future there will be aftermarket batteries of newer technology than what our cars came with. It’s anybody’s guess as to whether that will happen. ?‍?

 

[Dave-O]

So from what I've read, our batteries should last anywhere from 100k to 500k miles before deterioration means we need to replace them or buy a new car.

For most people (even those who drive a lot), this is 5-10 years of use before needing to replace the batteries.

In 5-10 years, we will likely have solid state batteries, which have a higher energy density as well as being safer, faster charging, and longer lasting. The cost may even be affordable to the point where it would be a viable option to replace the old battery with a fancy new one, especially if battery recycling has been developed.

Perhaps this is a bit of a rose tinted glasses view, but really this would be a good outcome. Because of the minimal moving parts in the electric drivetrain, replacing the battery should allow it to function almost as good as new. So such an option would be more attractive than having to buy an all new car for more money.

You seem to be overly optimistic.

 

[dtbaker61]

So from what I've read, our batteries should last anywhere from 100k to 500k miles before deterioration means we need to replace them or buy a new car.

For most people (even those who drive a lot), this is 5-10 years of use before needing to replace the batteries.

In 5-10 years, we will likely have solid state batteries, which have a higher energy density as well as being safer, faster charging, and longer lasting. The cost may even be affordable to the point where it would be a viable option to replace the old battery with a fancy new one, especially if battery recycling has been developed.

Perhaps this is a bit of a rose tinted glasses view, but really this would be a good outcome. Because of the minimal moving parts in the electric drivetrain, replacing the battery should allow it to function almost as good as new. So such an option would be more attractive than having to buy an all new car for more money.

yes, a new battery (likely solid-state lithium by then) would be a great way to get another 100k+ miles on any BEV. The drivetrain is the least of my worries for longevity.

My concern is that around 10-15 years in, all the all-electric everything else bits will start failing and need to be replaced. environmental plumbing, pumps, hoses, relays, door locks, display screen, headlights/tailights, power windows, power steering, power brakes.... and hundreds of feet of wiring and connectors....

with 'classic' cars all that stuff is mechanical, and might rattle or get loose, but with all the electronics we are going to have to depend on Ford or 3rd party to mfg/stock *some* inventory.... or get really good about scavenging junkyards to pull parts from wrecked vehicles.

 

[StillWaitingForMachE]

You seem to be overly optimistic.

I mean, I could be pessimistic and say we'll all have perished in a nuclear Armageddon before our batteries need to be replaced so it won't matter anyways?

 

[Mach-Lee]

So from what I've read, our batteries should last anywhere from 100k to 500k miles before deterioration means we need to replace them or buy a new car.

For most people (even those who drive a lot), this is 5-10 years of use before needing to replace the batteries.

In 5-10 years, we will likely have solid state batteries, which have a higher energy density as well as being safer, faster charging, and longer lasting. The cost may even be affordable to the point where it would be a viable option to replace the old battery with a fancy new one, especially if battery recycling has been developed.

Perhaps this is a bit of a rose tinted glasses view, but really this would be a good outcome. Because of the minimal moving parts in the electric drivetrain, replacing the battery should allow it to function almost as good as new. So such an option would be more attractive than having to buy an all new car for more money.

I think you're being a little optimistic about the speed of battery advancement. If we look back 10 years into the past, the batteries aren't drastically different than today. The 2008 Tesla roadster used 18650 Li-ion cells, and the 2011 Chevy Volt used NMC pouch cells similar to what the Mach-E uses. The biggest advancement in 10 years has been how the cells are packaged much more efficiently, and the overall capacity of packs increasing due to reduction of costs. In 10 years I think we will see a lot more LFP batteries in the market, but Li-ion chemistry will still be predominant. There may be a high-end car similar in price to a Lucid Air that has a solid state battery in 10 years, but it will not hit the masses for probably 20 years assuming the tech is successful.

 

[StillWaitingForMachE]

I think you're being a little optimistic about the speed of battery advancement. If we look back 10 years into the past, the batteries aren't drastically different than today. The 2008 Tesla roadster used 18650 Li-ion cells, and the 2011 Chevy Volt used NMC pouch cells similar to what the Mach-E uses. The biggest advancement in 10 years has been how the cells are packaged much more efficiently, and the overall capacity of packs increasing due to reduction of costs. In 10 years I think we will see a lot more LFP batteries in the market, but Li-ion chemistry will still be predominant. There may be a high-end car similar in price to a Lucid Air that has a solid state battery in 10 years, but it will not hit the masses for probably 20 years assuming the tech is successful.

Solid Power has already begun pilot production of solid state batteries, with the (optimistic) hope of beginning mass production sometime in 2024. While that probably means closer to 2026 at the earliest, that's still only 4 years away.

And I could very well be wrong, but I prefer to think that this is different from heated seats or backup cameras. ICEs were fully adopted by the masses well before those techs came around, and did not solve a roadblock to adoption. Solid state batteries on the other hand will make what is currently a niche market much more available and attractive to the masses by addressing the current shortcomings of EVs (speed of fast charging, battery degradation, battery cost, scarcity of Lithium, and of course high profile fires).

In conclusion, IMO solid state batteries are not just a cool gadget or even a state of the art safety device. They are more like what the assembly line was to the ICE - a game changer.

 

[roamtheworld]

yes, a new battery (likely solid-state lithium by then) would be a great way to get another 100k+ miles on any BEV. The drivetrain is the least of my worries for longevity.

My concern is that around 10-15 years in, all the all-electric everything else bits will start failing and need to be replaced. environmental plumbing, pumps, hoses, relays, door locks, display screen, headlights/tailights, power windows, power steering, power brakes.... and hundreds of feet of wiring and connectors....

with 'classic' cars all that stuff is mechanical, and might rattle or get loose, but with all the electronics we are going to have to depend on Ford or 3rd party to mfg/stock *some* inventory.... or get really good about scavenging junkyards to pull parts from wrecked vehicles.

How is this any different than a current ICE vehicle? 10 year warranty and about 5 years for a vehicle being manufactured without major changes is pretty common these days.
BEV vehicles now reach well over 100K plus and some are at 500K miles with 80% battery life left.
I firmly believe in 15 years battery recycling will be in full swing and the hoses switches and such are mostly common supplier variety so we should be good. These aren’t bespoke vehicles.

 

[dtbaker61]

Solid Power has already begun pilot production of solid state batteries, with the (optimistic) hope of beginning mass production sometime in 2024. While that probably means closer to 2026 at the earliest, that's still only 4 years away.

And I could very well be wrong, but I prefer to think that this is different from heated seats or backup cameras. ICEs were fully adopted by the masses well before those techs came around, and did not solve a roadblock to adoption. Solid state batteries on the other hand will make what is currently a niche market much more available and attractive to the masses by addressing the current shortcomings of EVs (speed of fast charging, battery degradation, battery cost, scarcity of Lithium, and of course high profile fires).

In conclusion, IMO solid state batteries are not just a cool gadget or even a state of the art safety device. They are more like what the assembly line was to the ICE - a game changer.

I totally agree.... solid state batteries will be a game changer, and likely to be available on the market for replacement battery pack right when we need them!

I plan to pull the 'tired' battery pack from the car, and use it for my home PV battery backup system when the time comes. Even a 'tired' used pack from a BEV will have a LOOOOOONG second life running homes. even a badly degraded pack, lets say 50%, would still be more than enough backup for the average home to use for days in cases of Grid failure

 

[dtbaker61]

I think you're being a little optimistic about the speed of battery advancement. If we look back 10 years into the past, the batteries aren't drastically different than today. The 2008 Tesla roadster used 18650 Li-ion cells, and the 2011 Chevy Volt used NMC pouch cells similar to what the Mach-E uses. The biggest advancement in 10 years has been how the cells are packaged much more efficiently, and the overall capacity of packs increasing due to reduction of costs. In 10 years I think we will see a lot more LFP batteries in the market, but Li-ion chemistry will still be predominant. There may be a high-end car similar in price to a Lucid Air that has a solid state battery in 10 years, but it will not hit the masses for probably 20 years assuming the tech is successful.

I am betting (and investing) in a couple of the companies that are working on the Solid State lithium..... QuantumScape (QS), SolidPower(SLDP), and others have working cells and are building production plants currently. My guess is they will be used in BEVs sometime between 2024-2026.

 

[bshaw]

The software that is running current model MMEs (2021-2022) is designed for the battery tech that shipped with the vehicle.

While it sounds like a fantastic possibility, I doubt there will be an easy/affordable way to swap into a new HVB technology once that becomes available.

The complexity and complications would be numerous.

 

[awp0]

I believe that the warranty is for that length. The expected deterioration is projected to be around
5% per year. That means that after 5 years your 200 mile range would be down to 150. Most
batteries seem to fare better than that.

I think the expected deterioration is much lower than that, otherwise Ford will be replacing most batteries under warranty before owners reach 100k or 8 years.

 

[Blue highway]

I think you're being a little optimistic about the speed of battery advancement. If we look back 10 years into the past, the batteries aren't drastically different than today. The 2008 Tesla roadster used 18650 Li-ion cells, and the 2011 Chevy Volt used NMC pouch cells similar to what the Mach-E uses. The biggest advancement in 10 years has been how the cells are packaged much more efficiently, and the overall capacity of packs increasing due to reduction of costs. In 10 years I think we will see a lot more LFP batteries in the market, but Li-ion chemistry will still be predominant. There may be a high-end car similar in price to a Lucid Air that has a solid state battery in 10 years, but it will not hit the masses for probably 20 years assuming the tech is successful.

Spot On! In 10 years, my crystal ball says that LFP batteries will be the norm, they will be cheaper and only incrementally better than NMC today... In short, the future will look a lot more like today, than I'd hope.

 

[dtbaker61]

The software that is running current model MMEs (2021-2022) is designed for the battery tech that shipped with the vehicle.

While it sounds like a fantastic possibility, I doubt there will be an easy/affordable way to swap into a new HVB technology once that becomes available.

The complexity and complications would be numerous.

The replacement pack voltage would have to 'close' to the same nominal to match motor, inverter, dc-dc, etc..... but changing the chemistry, or changing to solid-state would just be a matter of changing the software charge curve and rate parameters. easy....

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