Analysis company for the oil and gas industry states EV Market has collapsed

[Deleted member 16048]

This is definitely a click bait thread, but in reality we have already been talking (posting) about this. There are multiple threads about the dropping prices and cars filling up on lots. I agree we don't know if that is a short term trend, but my normal neighbors are not ready for a BEV. That I know. If they get one they will be very dissatisfied and will likely replace it as soon as they can. We are early adopters and I do think the car industry has over estimated how many of us actually are out there. Time will tell.

It definitely is, but the dropping prices is across the entire market itself, not just EVs so it's not a EV market dropping sign. Just car sales in general due to the current state of the economy. There are a lot of people that are hesitant about buying a BEV for sure, but I think we are out of the "early adopter" stage when it comes to the cars themselves. The charging network is still early in it's life (Only due to reliability and capacity), but the cars themselves they have generally figured out pretty well. Tesla has been around since 2003 ad they were not even the first company to develop an EV so the cars themselves are sound with the tech, it's just build quality that we see companies having an issue with. (Though I've found the only one who really struggles the most is Tesla but they all have issues ICE's included.)

Now yes, there are people who are not ready but sometimes it comes down to they just don't like change.

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[Blue highway]

This is definitely a click bait thread, but in reality we have already been talking (posting) about this. There are multiple threads about the dropping prices and cars filling up on lots. I agree we don't know if that is a short term trend, but my normal neighbors are not ready for a BEV. That I know. If they get one they will be very dissatisfied and will likely replace it as soon as they can. We are early adopters and I do think the car industry has over estimated how many of us actually are out there. Time will tell.

Maybe, but let's check back in a few months... I think the broad trend is that EVs will grow ~50% this year in the US... let's see.

 

[Blue highway]

"Ford’s electric vehicle sales — a major focus of Wall Street — continue to increase, up 88% from a year earlier. However, EV sales still only represent 2.9% of the automaker’s sales through February."

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/02/ford-february-auto-sales.html

 

[flapjake314]

in other news, my mom confirms i'm the best looking man on earth

 

[cafdiniz]

https://www.ajot.com/news/ev-sales-collapse-as-subsidies-and-tax-credits-come-to-an-abrupt-halt

Just like in the 1930s, but the title would be: Analysis company for the tobacco industry states smoking is swell

 

[eleven24]

Just like in the 1930s, but the title would be: Analysis company for the tobacco industry states smoking is swell

Very true. Politicians today who deny climate change exists are of the same cloth of those that came before them denying cigarette smoking had anything to do with cancer. They both held these stances because of big donor money, at the expense of personal health then and planetary health today.

Which is puzzling as to why Elon has aligned himself more with those who deny climate change. Or perhaps he cares less about "the mission" than he does paying taxes.

 

[Vulnox]

If the EV market does "collapse", it will be due to them being unprofitable to continue to sell at large volumes for most vehicle types. If you look at 80% of the EVs introduced in the last few years, they are $60k+, many pushing over $100k, not even counting ADR.

Even with these numbers, some of the margins on these vehicle, the MME included, are fairly slim. It will be difficult for Ford and GM especially to slap $5-10k rebates on the hood of vehicles they are only $3k margin (I am just throwing a number out). But for the F-150 ICE which also had seen a decent price increase, the margins on that truck are huge. Ford can cut $10k off a $70k F-150 and still make money, it's what they were doing year after year before 2020. My F-150 was $73k MSRP but my OTD price was $62k, and Ford still made money. I don't think we will see anything like that on $70k GT Performance Edition MMEs, although the tax credit certainly helps them if they can keep the full amount past March.

So even if the entire auto market is "collapsing", the controls automakers have for that are rebates, and I don't know how many of the model lines will remain worth keeping around in the EV world if margins have been slim already. There needs to be a significant price drop on battery manufacturing for the OEMs and FAST if they hope to keep ICE like profitability while offering discounts.

I am not a petroleum advocate or any of that, would love to see this last year be the last year of their gross "Record Profits" and see more and more EVs take over, but for the few issues where EVs don't win out over ICE vehicles for owners, there are some big dollar sign associated ones where EVs are a tougher line for automakers. Tesla has managed to find a good profit margin, but they have a lot of differences in their production and delivery that make that possible. Someone earlier mentioned China wants to use EVs to own the auto sector, I hate to say it but it may come down to them and Tesla if the traditional automakers can't find a way to make EVs profitable in a 2019-like auto market.

 

[Hammered]

Very true. Politicians today who deny climate change exists are of the same cloth of those that came before them denying cigarette smoking had anything to do with cancer. They both held these stances because of big donor money, at the expense of personal health then and planetary health today.

Which is puzzling as to why Elon has aligned himself more with those who deny climate change. Or perhaps he cares less about "the mission" than he does paying taxes.

The myth is human induced CO2 global cooling, AGW, oh, it's "climate change" now. Elon has access to levels of ai analytics we could only dream of. You can push chatGPT to break down the facts of the matter and it'll come clean about it, or you could look at high fidelity data like that which comes from the USCRN. He knows countries are going to continually waste money on the pursuit of the unobtainable, and he's going to more than triple his wealth as govts play right into his hands. You don't have to believe a myth to profit off of those who do.

The fact of the matter is that there's nothing green about the push to whatever nonsense they're labeling the current grift. My favorite part of my MME is the coal that powers it. Germany for instance, due highly in part to gross incompetence, is strip mining farm land to burn some of the nastiest stuff you could to make power from (literally). They're also desperately trying to prolong the life of nuke plants because, well they've had some really dumb politicians pushing for pipe dreams outside of reality.

This will become apparent to more people when the ethanol gets removed from gasoline, though it will likely be done so quietly as the corn is diverted to food. The fact is, putting ethanol into gasoline increases a vehicle's CO2 output by 25%. Why? Because it's not about CO2. CO2 doesn't matter. It's about money and control. CO2 is simply a number to point at. It's but a shadow on the wall.

 

[Mach1E]

"Ford’s electric vehicle sales — a major focus of Wall Street — continue to increase, up 88% from a year earlier. However, EV sales still only represent 2.9% of the automaker’s sales through February."

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/02/ford-february-auto-sales.html

Stop confusing the arguments with actual data. The internet is supposed to about baseless extreme opinions! ?

 

[mkhuffman]

Very true. Politicians today who deny climate change exists are of the same cloth of those that came before them denying cigarette smoking had anything to do with cancer. They both held these stances because of big donor money, at the expense of personal health then and planetary health today.

Which is puzzling as to why Elon has aligned himself more with those who deny climate change. Or perhaps he cares less about "the mission" than he does paying taxes.

The "mission" of a business should be to make a profit. Period. I think Elon has figured that out somewhat. It is something government cares nothing about, because they are spending other people's money. My money. Your money.

One day in the normal cycle of earth's changing climate we will enter another ice age. I hope none of us are alive when that happens because you can't grow anything on ice. We want to be warm, not cold. Although snow is fun a few months a year, it is not if it sticks around all 12 months.

 

[superdave80]

in other news, my mom confirms i'm the best looking man on earth

"Yes you are, you handsome little devil!"

 

[superdave80]

Yes, global EV sales have collapsed almost to the levels last seen way, way back in... April 2022. Followed by an increase of 40% the following month.

Only these morons can call ONE MONTH of bad sales a 'collapse'.

 

[azerik]

Most of that having happened when 80%+ of new buyers were waffling on buying based on the fed tax credit change followed by FOMO of Tesla 'dropping' prices.

 

[timbop]

Just like in the 1930s, but the title would be: Analysis company for the tobacco industry states smoking is swell

Funny you should mention the 1930's. That's roughly when Robert Kehoe created the playbook that the oil companies still follow for obfuscating data and effectively spreading disinformation. Kehoe insisted that the then-current levels of lead in humans, the air, and water were natural and completely unchanged by burning leaded gasoline. Astonishingly the use of his credentials allowed that ridiculous claim to hold sway until the 1960's, when actual research on historical atmospheric and waterborne lead levels was actually done. Oddly enough the real data showed that the levels skyrocketed with the introduction of tetra-ethyl-lead in gasoline. It still took until the 70's to get it banned.

So the claim "what you're seeing is natural and humans aren't causing change" is closing in on its 100th birthday and still going strong

 

[AhardFSU]

This is definitely a click bait thread, but in reality we have already been talking (posting) about this. There are multiple threads about the dropping prices and cars filling up on lots. I agree we don't know if that is a short term trend, but my normal neighbors are not ready for a BEV. That I know. If they get one they will be very dissatisfied and will likely replace it as soon as they can. We are early adopters and I do think the car industry has over estimated how many of us actually are out there. Time will tell.

I guess if you assume only the people who choose to drive a BEV have a clue at to what they’re doing……well then your statement rings true. But you’d have assume a lot people just aren’t as smart and wise and aware of all of the ‘issues’, unlike the wise ones that we are.

And that also presumed that the 21% of folks in China and the folks in Europe are also early adopters, which I kind of think they’re past that point. So if we only focus on America, which is kind of myopic, maybe you have a point. But then you’d have to presume that all of the other people whom choose to buy a EV are early adopters and that they know better. I think your perspective is slightly skewed toward your biases, but hey this is a Internet forum.

All I’m saying is that you’d have to completely forget about the BEV buyers in Europe and China for your comments to make sense. In the US, we’re probably in the early acceptance phase. It kind of feels like the early Tesla buyers from 10 years ago were the early adopters. At 6% and growing in the US, I don’t know if that early adopter phrase is true.

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