Oversupply? Are EV’s struggling to sell?

[RKinWA]

Several 1000 mile round trip road trips to see my son. Only can take the Mach E without my wife since the trip adds an hour to 1.5 hours each way. It may not bother some people but it definitely bothers others.

Yeah I've been wanting to take a trip to Sedona, AZ from Seattle, but it adds 7 hrs of time for charging (I adjust the mi/kWh to a more realistic 2.5 due to my GTPE driving habits ?)

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[GreaseMonkey]

If your dealer put up a most recent window sticker, then yes it's a good deal.

But if your dealer left the old price sticker up and then tells you that $4500 off is good deal - I have beachfront property to sell you in Kansas...

My Premium got the $2K rebate off the new lower price (post Feb '23) plus PCO.

Pat is spot on. Need to talk absolute numbers here and specify with or without BC / mobile charger.

 

[dbsb3233]

And herein lies the problem. Why does it all have to be crossovers and "SUVs?" Surely we can get another body type.

We do. They're called pick-ups. ?

There are sedans too, of course. They're just not very popular with consumers anymore (in North America, anyway) compared to roomier SUV/CUV/truck body styles.

 

[dbsb3233]

"The number of unsold electric vehicles at dealers in the second quarter tripled compared to the past year, signaling a weakened demand for the segment, said a recent report by leading auto-dealer data company Cox Automotive."

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/w...c-vehicles-piling-car-dealerships-says-report

I still think the feds jacking around the tax credits has created a lot of fallout in the last few months. It helped Tesla and hurt most everyone else.

But let's also not forget the effect that gas prices always have on ICE sales. A year ago it was driving up demand for EVs. Now that extra boost has faded.

 

[SpaceEVDriver]

I haven't taken my MME on a long road trip (yet), but I have plenty of nightmare ICE road trip stories, so many, that I haven't taken a long road trip since ?

I once had to push a motorcycle across the Mojave desert in June because I ran out of gas. The first gas station I stopped at was closed. So I had to push the bike back up the freeway onramp and continue pushing for another 10 miles to the next gas station (total distance was about 15 miles; it took hours in the beating sun). This was in the time before cell phones.

I have no fears of being "stranded" by my Mustang. It's a zero-probability event--even if there's a breakdown, I won't be stranded.

 

[thekat03]

And if everyone is trying to incorporate a charge into a lunch stop, do we have enough chargers?

Nope.

There are going to be growing pains, but I envision rest stops with food, a small handful of super-fast chargers for those who just need to recharge and go, and a larger bank of 50-100 kW chargers for those who want a longer stop to eat lunch. Hopefully they will have canopies over the chargers like on top of most gas pumps these days, maybe with solar to help supplement power generation. This won't happen overnight, but it's likely to eventually happen as we see more and more people transition to plug in hybrids and EVs.

 

[SpaceEVDriver]

Yeah I've been wanting to take a trip to Sedona, AZ from Seattle, but it adds 7 hrs of time for charging (I adjust the mi/kWh to a more realistic 2.5 due to my GTPE driving habits ?)

Are you really thinking you would drive straight through in an ICE? If so, that seems dangerous and unhealthy. If not, the ABRP estimate is wildly inaccurate. If you book your stays where you can get L2 charging overnight, you start each day off with ~100% SOC, which would reduce your total drive time.

In March I took a trip from Flagstaff to Houston in the Mustang.

ABRP says it should take me 23 hours to drive it. Google says it should take me 17.5 hours to drive it. It took me 19 hours of driving. I stopped in Amarillo overnight and charged to 92% (I left late, got in late so had less time to charge than I expected). That's an 8.6% increase in driving time.

On the way home, I took a different route, and Google sent me to downtown Austin during SXSW, so I ended up driving an extra hour I didn't need to drive. The total driving time was 23 hours. The Google predicted driving time (including its misdirection) was 21 hours. The ABRP drive time was 25 hours, not including the detour. If I hadn't been misdirected by Google, I would have had one hour less driving and possibly a shorter charge at one of my stops. I could have done it in 22 hours for sure, maybe 21.5 hours. I stopped in the middle of nowhere RV park and charged to 96% overnight. This was an increase of about 10% in driving time (two extra hours compared with the predicted 20 hours if I hadn't gone to downtown Austin).

 

[RKinWA]

Are you really thinking you would drive straight through in an ICE? If so, that seems dangerous and unhealthy. If not, the ABRP estimate is wildly inaccurate. If you book your stays where you can get L2 charging overnight, you start each day off with ~100% SOC, which would reduce your total drive time.

In March I took a trip from Flagstaff to Houston in the Mustang.

ABRP says it should take me 23 hours to drive it. Google says it should take me 17.5 hours to drive it. It took me 19 hours of driving. I stopped in Amarillo overnight and charged to 92% (I left late, got in late so had less time to charge than I expected). That's an 8.6% increase in driving time.

On the way home, I took a different route, and Google sent me to downtown Austin during SXSW, so I ended up driving an extra hour I didn't need to drive. The total driving time was 23 hours. The Google predicted driving time (including its misdirection) was 21 hours. The ABRP drive time was 25 hours, not including the detour. If I hadn't been misdirected by Google, I would have had one hour less driving and possibly a shorter charge at one of my stops. I could have done it in 22 hours for sure, maybe 21.5 hours. I stopped in the middle of nowhere RV park and charged to 96% overnight. This was an increase of about 10% in driving time (two extra hours compared with the predicted 20 hours if I hadn't gone to downtown Austin).

Of course not, I was just looking at the general overall numbers, but, I hadn't taken into account any hotel L2 charging, so that could shorten it. Not to mention any time seeing the sights, detours, food, etc. Not using it as a "this is the exact time it will take me", just as a guideline. Plus one of the things I really like about BEVs is the forced breaks for charging. Last time I took a road trip in an ICE I drove from San Fransisco to Seattle, non stop, 18 hrs, it was brutal. With the MME I would not be able to do that, and I welcome that as it's stupid (especially now that I am older).

 

[mkhuffman]

There are going to be growing pains, but I envision rest stops with food, a small handful of super-fast chargers for those who just need to recharge and go, and a larger bank of 50-100 kW chargers for those who want a longer stop to eat lunch. Hopefully they will have canopies over the chargers like on top of most gas pumps these days, maybe with solar to help supplement power generation. This won't happen overnight, but it's likely to eventually happen as we see more and more people transition to plug in hybrids and EVs.

I feel very strongly that slower charging is the answer.

350 kW charging sounds good, and I will definitely appreciate it, but it will still be slower than ICE and will still be more painful than ICE refueling. The key is getting many more L2 options at destinations, and 50 kW options at mid point stops (like restaurants and shopping centers). That means we can charge the car while it would be sitting anyway. Instead of stopping just for refueling and finding things to occupy us during the time it takes to DCFC.

But charging alone isn't enough. We need 600 mile range vehicles. Then destination charging is practically all we will ever need.

We have a long way to go before public charging doesn't suck.

 

[moparguy]

I took my CA RT1 from Phoenix to Carlsbad, CA last July. One charging stop in El Centro for 17 minutes. Made it there with 15% battery. I bought the CA RT1 because I wanted maximum highway range, not maximum performance (especially for only 5 seconds, lol).

I think You made a good choice, I am an aggressive driver, I constantly floor the car and between the GT and the Select, I'd say on a 20 miles ride they are nearly equally fun because the GT performance gets throttled quickly VS on the select that doesn't happen at all, I have the same performance at all times even at 15% battery, I still like the GT look more and miss that quick 0-60 but when constantly pushing the thing hard, the overall difference becomes minimal, I'd imaging CART1 or PREM AWD EXT would have a better overall performance.

 

[JoeDimwit]

The Mach-E never made much sense to me for the European market. It would be one of the largest vehicles on the road in most european countries, and that is going to come with a ton of potential issues. Like parking, and fitting through narrow streets comfortably.
add in the price, and it stops making sense when there are so many smaller, more efficient, less expensive options available.

 

[4sallypat]

The Mach-E never made much sense to me for the European market. It would be one of the largest vehicles on the road in most european countries, and that is going to come with a ton of potential issues. Like parking, and fitting through narrow streets comfortably.
add in the price, and it stops making sense when there are so many smaller, more efficient, less expensive options available.

Yes, agree - I wondered why the Europeans can drive smaller diesel vehicles that consumes much less fuel than our smallest ICE in North America.

Why is it that the US can't get these super fuel misers into the US ?

When I used to frequent the UK and Europe, I would rent a small car in Europe, it has always been very small 1.4L - 1.6L diesel engines that have a lot of torque and tons of range.

Next time will have to rent an EV.....

 

[mkhuffman]

Why is it that the US can't get these super fuel misers into the US ?

I think because practically nobody actually wants to buy them. They have tried it with death traps like the Smart Car. I laugh every time I see one. Smart when parked, dumb when driven.

 

[superdave80]

They have tried it with death traps like the Smart Car. I laugh every time I see one. Smart when parked, dumb when driven.

The thing I never understood about the Smart Car was why it's MPG wasn't much better than the average small/mid sized car? Other than being small enough to park where a normal sized car couldn't, I never really understood what the advantage of them was.

"Hey, do you want a car with no room that will probably kill you if you get in a major crash, but STILL pay the same amount of money for gas??? Well, have I got the car for YOU!"

 

[MuckyMach-e]

The Mach-E never made much sense to me for the European market. It would be one of the largest vehicles on the road in most european countries, and that is going to come with a ton of potential issues. Like parking, and fitting through narrow streets comfortably.
add in the price, and it stops making sense when there are so many smaller, more efficient, less expensive options available.

I’m in the UK and have had no problem with my Mach-e. It feels no bigger than the Volvo XC60 it replaced. Love the car but just wish Ford would role out BlueCruise for MY21 and MY22 here. The car fits perfectly down single lane roads with passing places in the Lake District and Scotland. Parking spaces can be a bit tight here but that affects all SUVs. The UK has fallen in love with SUVs and crossovers and car parks have to adjust to the average car being larger. It’s a great choice in the UK.

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