Will Tesla still lead the BEV market in 3-5 years?

[Mach1E]

They’re all semi-crooks lol one way or the other you’re supporting the best of the worst…take your pick.

I don’t buy (or not buy) products based on a CEO (or any employee for that matter).

I’ve always thought the idea of boycotting products based on an employee’s beliefs or even actions to be kinda silly.

Why? Because any company is going to be full of people, ideas and actions……. That you probably disagree with.

Not buying a Tesla because Musk sucks isn’t much different than not shopping at Walmart because you found out one of their cashiers is a drug addict or deadbeat dad.

I buy products that I like and roll my eyes a lot at the executives at those companies.

Sponsored

 

[Jferrari427]

I don’t buy (or not buy) products based on a CEO (or any employee for that matter).

I’ve always thought the idea of boycotting products based on an employee’s beliefs or even actions to be kinda silly.

Why? Because any company is going to be full of people, ideas and actions……. That you probably disagree with.

Not buying a Tesla because Musk sucks isn’t much different than not shopping at Walmart because you found out one of their cashiers is a drug addict or deadbeat dad.

I buy products that I like and roll my eyes a lot at the executives at those companies.

Yea I totally agree. I tend to buy what I like and not care too much about the rest. I’ve yet to find any brand or company that I can say I truly agree with 100% on all of their decisions or beliefs. I didn’t buy a Tesla because I didn’t want to drive a car that looks like an egg / is as ubiquitous as a 90’s Camry, but I admire their tech and ambition.

 

[NoMoPetrol]

To all the prognosticators of doom for the mighty Tesla I have these caveats:

1. The legacy automakers need to transition from spit polished press releases to serious EV production first.
2. They must also work their way past their own versions of "production hell" (for them it seems to be battery supplies and software rather than panel assembly).
3. Several larger OEMs have targeted 2030 as their tipping point for 50-50 BEV/ICE production; meanwhile Tesla and the Chinese companies are in full production at volume today.
4. The canary in the coal mine could very well be the introduction of the CyberTruck. If Tesla finds that their CT reservations have been diluted by pickup offerings from Rivian, F-150 Lightning, etc. and their sales are sluggish as a result, it's a defiinite sign that Tesla is coming back to the mean. If, however, CT sales are robust, it most likely means that for the next 3-5 years it's gonna be Tesla and the Chinese running circles around the rest.

I have contended that mass adoption of EVs will not occur until there are a wide range of offerings from multiple OEMs. Tesla will never have the manufacturing capacity to supply more than 15-25% of the auto market. EV adoption requires the participation of the entire auto industry.

However, expecting the rest of the industry to crush Tesla is unrealistic. Tesla would have to stop all R&D, all engineering modifications, all buildout of Supercharger locations and all software development and sit on their hands until 2030 while the rest of the OEMs to get up to speed on the technology and deployment (remember the dealer networks must be converted, too) before they would be crushed by the competition.

 

[Yerfdog56]

well... first off BYD is now the global leader in terms of EV cars sold, not Tesla.

Tesla is using the Model T playbook...

• limited options (they only make 2 models in any kind of volume)
• drive down cost of manufacture as a competitive advantage - de contenting is a factor
  • the v4 system is de-contented from the v3 system... less Ram etc.
  • no ultrasonic sensors
  • no radar
• Reduce prices to maintain volumes over time.

There could be a Model T outcome.

• Competitors offer more options and share eventually erodes.... I'd like SXM radio, I'd like an instrument panel... etc.

They are going to be dominant for a "long time"... but a "long time" in the car industry is only a decade.

The thread was BEV's so in that sense, no, BYD is not the global leader.

https://www.carscoops.com/2023/07/b...-phevs-and-evs-in-the-first-half-of-the-year/

"To put these figures into perspective, Tesla built 479,700 cars in the second quarter and delivered 466,140 of them. That means it continues to hold a commanding lead over BYD "

And if you want to gerrymander even further to the point made, look at total kWh delivered. A significant portion of BYD's BEV's, while not golf carts like Wuling, certainly are in a different class that Tesla. But if you want to include all plug-ins, then BYD leads.

Even BYD admits Tesla is the leader in BEV sales.

"BYD has ambitions to overtake Tesla as the world’s largest producer of electric vehicles but at the moment, is selling EVs alongside plug-in hybrids"

 

[Yerfdog56]

who do I think will pass them?

well…over 5 years …say 10 companies (conservative) producing conservatively 5 BEVs each…. That’s 50 BEVs….I wouldn’t be surprised if there were 75-100 new BEV models in the US in under 5 years.

You think Tesla will sell more than 50+ other BEVs ( more like 75+ models realistically in 5 years) with 4 or 5 models maybe 6 models produced by Tesla?

I think the whole market BEV combined sales will blow away Tesla.

The question wasn't who offers more models.

 

[GreaseMonkey]

To all the prognosticators of doom for the mighty Tesla I have these caveats:

1. The legacy automakers need to transition from spit polished press releases to serious EV production first.
2. They must also work their way past their own versions of "production hell" (for them it seems to be battery supplies and software rather than panel assembly).
3. Several larger OEMs have targeted 2030 as their tipping point for 50-50 BEV/ICE production; meanwhile Tesla and the Chinese companies are in full production at volume today.
4. The canary in the coal mine could very well be the introduction of the CyberTruck. If Tesla finds that their CT reservations have been diluted by pickup offerings from Rivian, F-150 Lightning, etc. and their sales are sluggish as a result, it's a defiinite sign that Tesla is coming back to the mean. If, however, CT sales are robust, it most likely means that for the next 3-5 years it's gonna be Tesla and the Chinese running circles around the rest.

I have contended that mass adoption of EVs will not occur until there are a wide range of offerings from multiple OEMs. Tesla will never have the manufacturing capacity to supply more than 15-25% of the auto market. EV adoption requires the participation of the entire auto industry.

However, expecting the rest of the industry to crush Tesla is unrealistic. Tesla would have to stop all R&D, all engineering modifications, all buildout of Supercharger locations and all software development and sit on their hands until 2030 while the rest of the OEMs to get up to speed on the technology and deployment (remember the dealer networks must be converted, too) before they would be crushed by the competition.

Agree with most of what you said, but even by Tesla’s admission, cyber truck is a niche vehicle of 350k or less per year. The metric I’d be watching for is whether Highland will provide a unit sales and average selling price boost vs M3. Similarly, MY redesign in a year or so.

 

[Mach1E]

Agree with most of what you said, but even by Tesla’s admission, cyber truck is a niche vehicle of 350k or less per year. The metric I’d be watching for is whether Highland will provide a unit sales and average selling price boost vs M3. Similarly, MY redesign in a year or so.

I don’t have high hopes for a redesign.

Each car Tesla has come out with has been UGLIER than the last.

Roadster- the only good looking car they made
Model S- plain but ugly
Model X- fatter version of the S
Model 3- plainer and uglier than the S
Model Y- see above but fatter
Cybertruck- WTF????

If the Model Y redesign now has to be uglier than the Cybertruck. Oof. ?

 

[GreaseMonkey]

I don’t have high hopes for a redesign.

Each car Tesla has come out with has been UGLIER than the last.

Roadster- the only good looking car they made
Model S- plain but ugly
Model X- fatter version of the S
Model 3- plainer and uglier than the S
Model Y- see above but fatter
Cybertruck- WTF????

If the Model Y redesign now has to be uglier than the Cybertruck. Oof. ?

Yes, but that's a personal opinion. I still find model 3 to be a very attractive vehicle even after being unchanged since 2018. Remember that the reason why Mach-E looks so attractive is that Ford designers had 50+ years of design language to pull from...and they did a great job. Tesla is starting from scratch and prioritizing efficiency. You know what a Ford EV would look like from scratch? An Edge ?

 

[thekat03]

I don’t have high hopes for a redesign.

Each car Tesla has come out with has been UGLIER than the last.

Roadster- the only good looking car they made
Model S- plain but ugly
Model X- fatter version of the S
Model 3- plainer and uglier than the S
Model Y- see above but fatter
Cybertruck- WTF????

If the Model Y redesign now has to be uglier than the Cybertruck. Oof. ?

Fatter doesn't necessarily mean uglier. I think of the Mach-E as a Mustang, only a bit chunkier. She has a bit of extra meat on her bones, but still is gorgeous. ?

But that Cybertruck is definitely wtf, and if redesigned Y has to be even uglier, that will take some effort.

 

[GreaseMonkey]

Fatter doesn't necessarily mean uglier. I think of the Mach-E as a Mustang, only a bit chunkier. She has a bit of extra meat on her bones, but still is gorgeous. ?

But that Cybertruck is definitely wtf, and if redesigned Y has to be even uglier, that will take some effort.

Look, as former Prius owners, you and I should probably recuse ourselves from this discussion

 

[NoMoPetrol]

I don’t have high hopes for a redesign.

Each car Tesla has come out with has been UGLIER than the last.

Roadster- the only good looking car they made
Model S- plain but ugly
Model X- fatter version of the S
Model 3- plainer and uglier than the S
Model Y- see above but fatter
Cybertruck- WTF????

If the Model Y redesign now has to be uglier than the Cybertruck. Oof. ?

You know the old saying, "Ugly is in the eye of the beholder."

 

[Mach1E]

Yes, but that's a personal opinion. I still find model 3 to be a very attractive vehicle even after being unchanged since 2018. Remember that the reason why Mach-E looks so attractive is that Ford designers had 50+ years of design language to pull from...and they did a great job. Tesla is starting from scratch and prioritizing efficiency. You know what a Ford EV would look like from scratch? An Edge ?

Sure it’s personal, but it’s a pretty common opinion.

FWIW, I actually hope the Y redesign looks better. Literally ANY shape or form to it would help.

It looks like those blobs of clay they use to design cars, but they forgot to put any details on the blob.

Maybe they will surprise us both and figure out what’s uglier than a Cybertruck.

 

[Jferrari427]

I don’t have high hopes for a redesign.

Each car Tesla has come out with has been UGLIER than the last.

Roadster- the only good looking car they made
Model S- plain but ugly
Model X- fatter version of the S
Model 3- plainer and uglier than the S
Model Y- see above but fatter
Cybertruck- WTF????

If the Model Y redesign now has to be uglier than the Cybertruck. Oof. ?

Can you even buy a roadster lol great looking car but doesn’t exist to my knowledge lol

Agree with your design summary of the different models…if Tesla made cars with design that wasn’t inspired by an egg or bloated catfish I’d buy them lol

 

[DeluxeStang]

In 3-5 years? Maybe. In 10 years I expect Ford, BYD, GM, or VW to be leading. Tesla cars were only appealing when they were the only game in town. The mach-e looks 10x better than the model y, it's built better/more reliable, it's more enjoyable to drive. Prior to the mach-e, Ford was maybe 10 years behind Tesla in terms of EV tech, I'd say they're on the verge of catching up to the level of tech Tesla offers.

All the insider reports about t3 for example make it sound very promising and revolutionary.

 

[Mach1E]

Can you even buy a roadster lol great looking car but doesn’t exist to my knowledge lol

Agree with your design summary of the different models…if Tesla made cars with design that wasn’t inspired by an egg or bloated catfish I’d buy them lol

For the “roadster,” it’s the original one based on a Lotus Elise. Good looking because Lotus…..

Not talking about the future roadster vapor ware.

Sponsored