Will Tesla still lead the BEV market in 3-5 years?

[Jferrari427]

So who do you think will pass them?

It won’t be Ford. They’re still early to the game and their sales numbers are already declining.

Toyota and VW? No chance in the next 3 years.

Chrysler? Definitely not.

That leaves GM. And they have a looooong way to go to catch up.

Q1 sales-

Tesla- 155k 1st place
Chevy- 19k 2nd place

That’s a mountain to climb. Especially since the #1 selling Chevy is now discontinued.
https://insideevs.com/news/667516/us-electric-car-sales-2023q1/

who do I think will pass them?

well…over 5 years …say 10 companies (conservative) producing conservatively 5 BEVs each…. That’s 50 BEVs….I wouldn’t be surprised if there were 75-100 new BEV models in the US in under 5 years.

You think Tesla will sell more than 50+ other BEVs ( more like 75+ models realistically in 5 years) with 4 or 5 models maybe 6 models produced by Tesla?

I think the whole market BEV combined sales will blow away Tesla.

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[Hammered]

I said it. It’s because charging is the end game. It’s something that Tesla does very well, if they have 90 percent market share of DCFC, and I think in a few years they will, that’s a bigger prize than car manufacturing by a long shot.

Combined with their battery solutions, their energy division will be a monster $$ printer. If they get the deployment trends just right, and I'm sure they will, they'll be purchasing super off peak power at a couple cents and then selling them to consumers for 10x what they paid for it as well as selling it back to POCOs as distributed peaking / stabilizing plants. Energy makes modern life possible and makes up a percentage of the cost of pretty much everything.

 

[Hammered]

I think the whole market BEV combined sales will blow away Tesla.

So what you're saying with a lot of words is that tesla remains #1, got it.

 

[AKgrampy]

I am an old foggy and I can remember when the roads were packed with VW Beetles. I kind of look at Teslas like that. In a few years there will be so many competitors and my guess is they will all begin releasing lower cost models. I do not think Tesla will totally fade away or anything like the Beetle but some of the other brands may have a hard time making it when the big automakers start mass producing EV’S. I do think Tesla will lose market share though. However, if I could tell the future I would have three times as much in my 401k!

 

[Jferrari427]

So what you're saying with a lot of words is that tesla remains #1, got it.

Agree to disagree.

My point is nothing goes up forever. The pendulum swings. Odds are great that Tesla will be dethroned as the #1 BEV in sales volume by the market as a whole or even a singular brand.

 

[voxel]

Hyundai/Kia is the only carmaker I can see dethroning Tesla.

GM/Cadillac have proven they are incompetent after the botched Lyriq, Hummer, Blazer launches. My Lyriq order is 10 months late and won’t be delivered for another 6-9 months at least. GM is becoming a joke with such low production numbers. QC is a major issue also. The Lyriq falls apart from all the bugs and quibbles.

Ford has pricing and QC issues but they are ramping up factories and actually have EVs to sell.

Toyota/Subaru don’t seem to care. They only built 13K EVs for the 2023 model year. That’s two weeks of production at Tesla Austin.

Stellantis doesn’t even have an EV for sale in the US. Every carmaker has increasing sales but they are one of the few that have declined over the past few years.

VW? Not with the MEB platform. Too many QC issues. The premium brands within VW are looking at alternative EV platforms.

 

[DevSecOps]

Agree to disagree.

My point is nothing goes up forever. The pendulum swings. Odds are great that Tesla will be dethroned as the #1 BEV in sales volume by the market as a whole or even a singular brand.

Forever is a long time. I bet you would have thought the same about Apple 20 years ago and they have a seemingly endless climb.

This last weekend I was helping a friend shop for cars and we were at the Toyota dealership and I asked the sales manager why their technology is still dog crap. He said, "We have such a loyal buyer base that we don't need to improve it".

I think Tesla, just like Apple and Toyota, have a very loyal base. I have young nieces and nephews that admire Elon because of his space endeavors. They have a fascination with Tesla as well. As long as Tesla can maintain that loyalty and continue to appeal to the younger generation they aren't going to swing the other way for many, many years.

Last month, Tesla became the best selling EV in California finally topping Toyota (cited).

Lastly, look at the CT. They currently stand at 2 million reservations. That's simply insane. Sure not all will convert but still... 2 million.

 

[Hammered]

They're really just getting up to speed and folks asking who is going to dethrone them in 3-5 years.

Operated 1 factory until 2019 when china came online. They've now got 2 new factories that are just coming online having finished production in 2022, and 2 new vehicles about to drop with said factories expanding. They're literally just coming on to the scene completely killing it. Revisit this in 2 years to chime in and let yourself know how little thought you were giving this matter. Tesla's stock price is one thing, what they're doing in the auto space is something entirely different.

I added Q2 to this graph --- Do tell us where they're going with doubled capacity kicking in later this year? They're still parabolic -- at least wait for linear growth / production, LOL

If they're able to 1 shot cast the model 2 -- Imagine that leap in production. Precision casting A VEHICLE. Wake up, lol. I'm still not interested in one of the vehicles, though if they can manage a 260 mile range model 2 performance for sub 30k OTD, I might just have a new beater. Credit where it's due.

 

[GreaseMonkey]

We should be talking about share of total vehicles produced, not EVs. Remember that for every EV sale that a legacy OEM makes they lose an ice sale. It’s a zero sum game for them. Even worse, they substitute a profitable sale with an unprofitable one. But it’s different for Tesla. Each sale is a conquest, taken from a legacy OEM. Plus, pulling 10% EBITDA margin that only Toyota can bring (and yes, I’m aware of the drop due to discounts).

I bet you that Bara, Farley and others would do anything to trade places with the “life on mars” guy.

 

[Guss-E 2021]

Three to five years? Pfft. At the rate things in the BEV space are changing, I have no idea what things will look like by then.

Okay, I have some idea provided everything announced and planned actually happens (solid state batteries, Tesla Model 2, Blue Oval City, NACS for everyone and so on and so on...).

All I do know is that my next BEV experience is going to be even better than my first and I'm loving my first.

 

[heisnuts]

I think another question will be what type of demand will there be for EVs in 3 to 5 years. We all remember the long waiting lists for the Tesla, Ford, Jeep, etc. EVs and now we are seeing inventory piling up on lots. Even if the government somehow forces manufactures to switch over to more EVs, there would still be the used ICE car market that might go back to the crazy times we say over the last 3 years.

 

[nvabill]

who do I think will pass them?

well…over 5 years …say 10 companies (conservative) producing conservatively 5 BEVs each…. That’s 50 BEVs….I wouldn’t be surprised if there were 75-100 new BEV models in the US in under 5 years.

You think Tesla will sell more than 50+ other BEVs ( more like 75+ models realistically in 5 years) with 4 or 5 models maybe 6 models produced by Tesla?

I think the whole market BEV combined sales will blow away Tesla.

Even if that happens they would still be in first place. You don’t combine the other brands sales to determine who sells more, you look at each manufacturer numbers separately.

 

[nvabill]

Agree to disagree.

My point is nothing goes up forever. The pendulum swings. Odds are great that Tesla will be dethroned as the #1 BEV in sales volume by the market as a whole or even a singular brand.

So, now what you are saying is it’s Tesla against the world, now that’s funny right there. ?

 

[Mach1E]

Agree to disagree.

My point is nothing goes up forever. The pendulum swings. Odds are great that Tesla will be dethroned as the #1 BEV in sales volume by the market as a whole or even a singular brand.

Well those are two VERY different things.

But in the example you’re talking about, getting beaten by the “market as a whole,” still makes them #1.

It’s really a question of whether a singular brand dethrones them.

So I’ll ask you again. Which brand stands a chance?

In 3-5 years, I say “no one.” In a decade? Well that’s a long time.

There was a time years ago when I heard VW proclaim they would become the #1 car manufacturer in the world and I thought they were crazy. They proved me wrong by 2016.

 

[thekat03]

If we are just looking at the US market, Tesla is going to dominate longer. However, on the global market, 3 of the top 5 auto groups by sales are Chinese companies: BYD, Geely, and SAIC. I think at least one of the Chinese companies are likely the biggest competition for EVs in the next 3-5 years.

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