20-30 years for EV transition?

[Hammered]

While I don’t share the need for this personally…I also know for some people it is a must have - and is one of the reasons that they don’t jump in.

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/02/1...ing-to-chase-the-electric-vehicle-blues-away/

As I have stated in the thread. I don’t need to rely on any public charging with a car that has a 250 mile range, however, I also do know that for some people it is critical requirement.

Personally I think the best answer in 2024 is for people that need a longer range occasionally is a serial plug in that has 80-100 miles of range on battery power but can then drive across the country like any other gas powered car. There are none of them on the market today, but I think that would be the best of all worlds for people who mostly could use an EV but occasionally need a road trip car.

I think that it is clear that in 2024 a BEV will Not work for everyone in all circumstances. I have also stated that many households only need one car to do the long range driving and one of the vehicles can be a BEV. I also think that it is unlikely that both vehicles are needed for long distance driving at the same time, but everyone’s circumstances are different.

I do think that most households can have one BEV today- but also know there are many reasons that people get what they get.

As a lifelong “car guy” I have just found the overall daily driving experience of an EV is just better for daily use transportation. Fun to drive, quiet and quick, as well as efficient and better for the environment too.

I still have some toys…but for daily use-I won’t ever go backwards.

my 2¢.

2nd most of this.
Today, if someone can't charge at home or work, a BEV makes very little sense.

Despite some suggesting a BEV doesn't require significant lifestyle changes, that's just false. 400 mile highway speed / range, combined with competent charging curves significantly change the compromises that need to be made, but very few EVs come anywhere close to this capability and the ones that can slot into this capability typically have a price tag. It also varies by state when it comes to DCFC charging rates. If the cost per mile to charge is on par with gasoline (ie: no at-home charging), having an EV makes zero practical sense while having a significant price premium to be inconvenienced.

Despite the claimed efficiency advantage EVs offer, well I calculated the thermal energy needed to charge my MME and it's less thermally efficient than my hybrid F150 as I pointed out in this post. That's comparing the MME, which is a rather compact SUV to a leveled F150 on 34" LT tires with much higher drag. My MME consumes 56lbs of coal to go 100 miles at 2.4 m/kWh which is maybe a 70mph speed. The route to my sister's often yields results that is less than 2.2m/kWh with about half of the journey at 75mph while the rest is 65mph or below with some stop and go mixed in as well as speeds for at least 1/3 of the trip at speeds ranging from 40-55 mph.

Is it though? Depends where you get it, doesn't it? Here in the SF Bay Area the average rate of electricity is 35 cents/kWh. Right this very moment it's 46 cents/kWh at Tesla's closest Supercharger to where I am in Daly City, and it's peak time, that's the highest rate today, later in the evening it goes to 28 cents/kWh. So a full charge on a Mach E is $41.86 (in theory) to go 273 miles (averaging 3 miles/kWh). That same distance in a vehicle of similar size assuming 25 mpg, and $4.50/gallon, would be $49.14.

By all means, screen shot your trips 1&2, and lifetime. Quite curious to see a MME get a 3m/kWh lifetime. Mine is sitting at 2.2 with 20k miles on it.

I guess I’m in the minority here, but I just don’t have a love affair with batteries as a technology. I really hope we come up with something better.

For now, they’re a niche use case and you have to be willing to live with the downsides.

Batteries will eventually make sense. Current mainstream batteries leave much to be desired. Once 500wh/Kg becomes common place as well as 5c charging rates, things will be much different. If the MME could achieve that, on a 500kW charger, in around 14 minutes at 2.4m/kWh, 270 miles of range could be added. Tesla v4 superchargers should be able to deliver that (the actual charging hardware, not the v4 posts that are popping up).

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[ctenidae]

Your arguments are fine, but it’s still a compromise.

Refueling speed is just one of the reasons batteries are a compromise.

The others are weight and cost (both initial and repair costs).

It is important to acknowledge the compromises that ICE represents too- like cancer, dead polar bears, climate change, wars, hauling around flammable liquids, and coal rollers.

The rest of your points are fine- people will, and should, only switch to BEV when their situation is right for it.

 

[Mach1E]

It is important to acknowledge the compromises that ICE represents too- like cancer, dead polar bears, climate change, wars, hauling around flammable liquids, and coal rollers.

The rest of your points are fine- people will, and should, only switch to BEV when their situation is right for it.

?‍

If we are playing the butterfly effect game……. Electric cars have a carbon footprint as well as use fossil fuels, so they kill polar bears and do all the other things too (except flammable battery vs gas, but for fire risk, I would actually prefer the gasoline).

That said, people tend to care more about compromises that actually affect their daily lives.

Like having to go to gas stations vs plugging in at home. It’s why I’ve always said an EV makes a much better “around town” vehicle.

We are talking about 20-30 years in the future here though. Not sure why people are making excuses for the obvious downsides in current tech.

Side note- apparently our gas cars haven’t been killing polar bears either…….yet. It was hunting. They’re just the poster child of what could happen if all the ice melts- https://www.verifythis.com/article/...data/536-0eb6146f-fb8c-437a-a97c-59625228187a

 

[llinthicum1]

It could happen that way. But a lot can change in 30 years. Pure electric is unlikely to be the ultimate pinnacle of automotive propulsion technology. What will come next?

Perhaps fusion energy.

 

[Hammered]

It is important to acknowledge the compromises that ICE represents too- like cancer, dead polar bears, climate change, wars, hauling around flammable liquids, and coal rollers.

I think ya have some methane escaping your mouth.

The MIC will never stop going to war. The US is the largest producer of fossil fuels by a decent margin. When you weren't paying attention the whole war for oil for our needs shifted to the war for oil for our allies. They will never stop, it's too profitable.

Perhaps fusion energy.

Fusion will go no further than fission. Not embracing nuclear is arguably one of the dumbest blunders the US made, and still makes to this day.

 

[Blue highway]

He's probably not wrong. In the US there's some 268M light duty cars and trucks on the road. Average age of a vehicle is 11 years. Some 16M to 17M new cars are sold in the US each year. If we were to buy nothing but EVs starting tomorrow, it would take 16 to 17 years to replace all those vehicles. And that's assuming that there's enough variety of models and price points to fulfill people's needs. If anything, I think he's a bit optimistic in how rapidly the transition will happen.

I think he means transition from a sales standpoint not a fleet in service standpoint... so yeah a decade or more.

 

[Larry Paul]

By all means, screen shot your trips 1&2, and lifetime. Quite curious to see a MME get a 3m/kWh lifetime. Mine is sitting at 2.2 with 20k miles on it.

I only have a trip 1 &2. Where does one see lifetime?

My trip 1&2 got blown out with some software update, so I only have the last 8624 miles captured, but I have a 2022 GTPE with just under 18K miles.

This is an average mix of city, highway (but often stuck in traffic) and a mix of occasional fun spirited and longer highway driving. Mostly used for commuting @40-80 miles per outing, but some shorter runs for shopping too. Also used to haul the family to some events that are 80-150 miles round trip several times per year often at 65-70MPH. One trip to San Diego from LA at 70 for most of the drive. I typically get 2.7-3.1 average on a longer highway drive@65-70, but sometimes worse depending on elevation changes and weight in the car.

Based on the clock and miles driven...Averaging sadly about 25MPH.

 

[ChehRob]

They sold 26K RAV4 Primes in the US in 2023. Which is an increase over the 18.5K they did in 2022.

Over half of their sales in Europe are hybrids or plug-in hybrids now. In the US it was 29.2% for 2023. Two models, Sienna and Venza, are available only in hybrid trim. There's 12 other models available in hybrid trim, with another 10 on the Lexus side.

The increase in RAV4 Primes is pathetic. I would have got one at the end of 2018 when I got mine, and it was backordered. They should be making 100s of thousands now - and they would sell. Toyota really is not much committed to hybrid models other the Prius and I think the Crown. I suspect the RAV4 Prime could come modestly close to matching Tesla Ys in number.

 

[AZBill]

I hear you, but there will continue to be development.

"While lithium-ion batteries typically require at least 40 minutes to charge at a DC fast-charging station, solid-state batteries can achieve a full charge in as little as 10 to 15 minutes.


Another advantage of solid-state EV batteries is the reduced fire risk."

from: https://energycentral.com/c/cp/solid-state-ev-battery-technology-range-improved-safety-and-faster-charging#:~:text=While lithium-ion batteries typically,is the reduced fire risk.


and a few other articles:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/23/cars...h-promises-to-radically-change-evs/index.html

https://www.jdpower.com/cars/shopping-guides/the-future-of-solid-state-batteries

To do this the charger would need to provide an average of 540kw for that 10 minutes, for a 90 kwh battery like the Mach E extended range. Good luck with that. This is all pie in the sky BS.

 

[Larry Paul]

To do this the charger would need to provide an average of 540kw for that 10 minutes, for a 90 kwh battery like the Mach E extended range. Good luck with that. This is all pie in the sky BS.

I hear you. I know fast charging is a must have priority for some, but in reality I don't think most people "NEED" it. I think what Hyundai is doing today seems like it would be more than fast enough. Hyundai today is using 800V systems and they claim:

"...charging from 10% to 80% SOC took about 18 minutes.

That is in line with Hyundai Motor Group's info:

• 10-80% SOC in 18 minutes (using 800V ultra-fast charger)
• 100 km of range (WLTP) in 4.5 minutes of charge"

https://insideevs.com/news/501936/h... 10%,of range (WLTP) in 4.5 minutes of charge

EVs are going to be different than a gas car for years to come, but from my perspective BEVs can work for a vast majority of drivers. I am not saying 100% and I am not mandating today's technology should be forced on people either. But I do think a majority (51-90%) can really have a better experience with at least one BEV (or other plug-in) in their households.

 

[Hammered]

To do this the charger would need to provide an average of 540kw for that 10 minutes, for a 90 kwh battery like the Mach E extended range. Good luck with that. This is all pie in the sky BS.

Shenxing LFP battery can already charge at 5c. While 350kW may seem like the limit / a lot, the V4 supercharger has peak output of 615kW. There's already connectors that support up to 3MW rates as well. Another easy possibility is charge port teaming -- which is just like it sounds, 2 chargers, 1 vehicle via 2 ports.

 

[GreaseMonkey]

He's probably not wrong. In the US there's some 268M light duty cars and trucks on the road. Average age of a vehicle is 11 years. Some 16M to 17M new cars are sold in the US each year. If we were to buy nothing but EVs starting tomorrow, it would take 16 to 17 years to replace all those vehicles. And that's assuming that there's enough variety of models and price points to fulfill people's needs. If anything, I think he's a bit optimistic in how rapidly the transition will happen.

So I was there in person and listened attentively to his remarks. That’s not what he means by 20-30 years. He and all other industry execs only consider new car sales. He said that by 2030, 50% of car sales in the US will be electrified (EVs and hybrids). And the full transition takes 20-30 years (again, for all new car sales to be EV.

We will have some form of gas cars that are roadworthy for the next 50+ years.

 

[ctenidae]

Polar bears eat baby seals...

Heck, I've eaten baby seals. Well, not sure it was a baby, but it sure was tender.

Re the other compromises, avoiding them has been responsible for a huge portion of the adoption of EVs. Not everyone in the country is only interested in their own needs this 5 seconds. On that scale, though, not having to spend 5 minutes twice a week standing in the freezing cold smelling like an oil tanker is a pretty significant draw for me. Also, maintenance, driving characteristics, having a place to put gallons of shrimp cocktail, all sit in the Plus column.

 

[ctenidae]

I think ya have some methane escaping your mouth.

The MIC will never stop going to war. The US is the largest producer of fossil fuels by a decent margin. When you weren't paying attention the whole war for oil for our needs shifted to the war for oil for our allies. They will never stop, it's too profitable.

That doesn't mean we should continue burning and fighting over oil. Besides, while you weren't paying attention we shifted from wars over oil to wars over land and ideology. Before long it will be for habitable land and water, and that'll get ugly.

 

[Hammered]

Heck, I've eaten baby seals. Well, not sure it was a baby, but it sure was tender.

Baby seals are the wagyu of the ICE. It's not the bears fault they're so tasty.

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