Analysis company for the oil and gas industry states EV Market has collapsed

[SpaceEVDriver]

I love my Mustang and am totally comfortable driving it pretty much anywhere I can imagine going with my other vehicles*. There are a few places I'm only willing to go after doing a bit of planning. But that's nothing new to me. It's also true for my partner. She's willing to go pretty much anywhere, with planning for some trips.

*Except offroad or camping with a travel trailer (obviously).

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[Jonno21]

Typically (successfully-disruptive) technology adoption goes roughly something like this:

• The people who adopt a technology when it is at less than about 2.5% of market share are "innovators."
• At about 2.5% and 13.5% market share adoption, we have the "early adopters."
• The people who adopt after market share is between about 13.5% and about 34%, are the "early majority."

If you can get above about 20% adoption, while continuing to innovate, there's a good chance the technology will take off and become common.

Innovators love to try new things, but they're not very influential with the mass market, just with the early adopters. Early adopters are also, now, called "influencers," and they mostly influence the "early majority." You don't typically find the "early majority" taking on the risk of the first innovation--they usually wait for the second major innovation. Some wait for the third major innovation. But once they're onboard, the tech is likely to be successful.

In the US, we might still be in the "early adopter" phase (about 7.2% of new vehicle sales were EVs) and we may not yet be seeing the momentum for the technology to be able to say with certainty that the technology will truly "take off."

But, if we expand our analysis to the entire world of automobiles, EVs are up to around 15% of the world's new-sale passenger vehicles, with most of those in China and Europe. The point isn't about where the vehicles are sold, but the fact that the manufacturers are still invested and the innovations are still coming.

EVs are here to stay.

Yes, if Norway can do it with their low winter temperatures then any country should be able to do it. It just needs the political will and a good charging infrastructure.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230201-arctic-cold-no-sweat-for-electric-cars-in-norway

 

[SpaceEVDriver]

Yes, if Norway can do it with their low winter temperatures then any country should be able to do it. It just needs the political will and a good charging infrastructure.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230201-arctic-cold-no-sweat-for-electric-cars-in-norway

Exactly.

 

[TGIF]

I think every Ukrainian solider will opt for more tank killing missiles than more AI.

AI: "Analysis of tracks complete. A tank rolled through here."
Ukrainian soldier: "Well I'm glad you're here to tell us these things...."

I've been watching video feeds of missles blowing up crappy third-world country tanks since at least the 90's during Desert Storm on CNN. I don't think we need THAT much AI to say "There is a tank. Maybe we should launch a missile at it?"

What about the AI that says “X number of tanks moved from Location A to Location B and are meeting with Yk new recruits coming from Location C? You should be able to grasp the point.

 

[superdave80]

What about the AI that says “X number of tanks moved from Location A to Location B and are meeting with Yk new recruits coming from Location C? You should be able to grasp the point.

What point am I suppose to grasp? That computers can help analysis things like troop movements? We've been doing that long before computers even existed. Yes, I'm sure 'AI' can make this quicker and more efficient, but I would hardly call that 'the greatest weapon we've given Ukraine'. Again, if Ukraine had the choice between more missiles or more AI, they are taking more missiles all day every day.

 

[All Hat No Cattle]

Tesla just said they sold 4 million vehicles globally for the year so far, targeting 7 million, I think it’s ok

Tesla said what?? LOL. For the sake of accuracy, you have to watch out what that Musk guy says.

- Source: CNN

New York CNN — Jan. 3, 2023

Tesla delivered a record number of cars last year, as sales continued to grow by percentages any other major automaker would dream about. But Tesla still managed to disappoint Wall Street throughout 2022 – and the last quarter was no different.

The electric automaker delivered 1.3 million vehicles in 2022, up 40% from 2021. It produced nearly 1.4 million vehicles, up 47% from the prior year.

Yet the fourth quarter underwhelmed: Tesla delivered only 405,278 vehicles, well below the median estimate of 431,000 according to analysts polled by Refinitiv, as recession fears and higher interest rates led to a slowdown in demand.

2022 (Full Year) Global: Tesla Car Sales Worldwide

January 3, 2023 in Brands, Global

In 2022, Tesla global sales, production, and worldwide deliveries of battery-electric vehicles increased to over a million passenger cars.

Tesla Model X © Tesla Inc
In the full calendar year 2022, Tesla increased worldwide production, sales, and deliveries of its electric cars to well over a million vehicles. Global production of Tesla cars increased by almost 50% while production of the more expensive Model S and X nearly tripled.

Tesla Worldwide Sales and Production in 2022
Tesla reported global production and deliveries of electric cars as follows for the full calendar year 2022:

	Production	Deliveries
Model S/X	71,177	66,705
Model 3/Y	1,298,434	1,247,146
Total	1,369,611	1,313,851

 

[devmach-e]

I love my car, and I'm not willing to leave town haha. Actually I took it overnight once to a Ritz Carlton in Half Moon Bay. I didn't need a charge overnight, but they offered to charge it so I accepted.

Most all of my out of town trips involve the Shelby.

I leave town all the time in my MME. It’s called going to work. Or over to the east bay. I’ve even taken it to Hollister. Twice its gone to SoCal.

 

[dbsb3233]

This is definitely a click bait thread, but in reality we have already been talking (posting) about this. There are multiple threads about the dropping prices and cars filling up on lots. I agree we don't know if that is a short term trend, but my normal neighbors are not ready for a BEV. That I know. If they get one they will be very dissatisfied and will likely replace it as soon as they can. We are early adopters and I do think the car industry has over estimated how many of us actually are out there. Time will tell.

Click bait to throw "oil and gas industry!!" in the headline, for sure.

While a drop from 23% market share to 14% could be considered a collapse, it's just one month. Moreover, it's December to January, which is important because the EV industry is heavily dependent on taxpayer subsidies, and those policies often change significantly from year to year. Where they did (reductions), it likely inflated Dec sales (to get in under the deadline) and depressed Jan, exaggerating the month-to-month drop.

Also, this is mostly about China and Europe, not the US.

Most likely it will rebound in the coming months. But it does illustrate that the exponential upward trend some expected to reach "no ICE by 2030" is - and always has been - wholly unrealistic.

 

[dbsb3233]

I didn't bother with the link as there's a glaring issue --- the auto market itself has collapsed.

Except they're pointing to market share of all auto sales (dropping from 23% EV to 14% EV).

 

[dbsb3233]

Every time I see a doomsday headline like this, I Google who said it and 99.5% of the time, probably more, it’s someone related to the Petroleum industry.
Sooooooo predictable they are.

Actually the doomsday claims are usually coming from the opposite direction, which is why we have things like $7500 subsidies to begin with.

 

[dbsb3233]

Definitely agree with this. IMO BEVs are better than ICE in every way but three: public refueling, range, and entry cost. But all of those are going to improve over time, guaranteed.

I'd expand on that a little. It's more than public refueling (DCFC), it's private refueling too. Not usually a problem for someone that owns a house, but it's a whole different story for those that don't (apartments, condos, house renters, etc). And that's something like half the population of the country. Without access to dependable L1/L2 where one sleeps, I usually wouldn't recommend a BEV.

It's gonna take many years (decades?) for most of those places to ramp up residential charging access. Which is crucial to adoption.

 

[dbsb3233]

Yes, if Norway can do it with their low winter temperatures then any country should be able to do it. It just needs the political will and a good charging infrastructure.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230201-arctic-cold-no-sweat-for-electric-cars-in-norway

Although it should be noted that Norway is a much smaller country (geographically), with most of the population in the south where it's like 230 miles from east side to west side. Compared to 2500 miles across the US. BEVs are a better fit for shorter distances, but tougher for long distance.

 

[Fat Mach]

I leave town all the time in my MME. It’s called going to work. Or over to the east bay. I’ve even taken it to Hollister. Twice its gone to SoCal.

Well, yeah if we decide to define it that way I go through several towns on the way to work and back. But for pleasure driving of any distance I enjoy driving my 24 year old pickup with over 300,000 miles on it or the Shelby. There is really no point in using the MME when it doesn't do anything I want to do on a long trip- out of town.

 

[SpaceEVDriver]

I do long road trips in the Mustang all the time. That's what I bought it for. I'm so confused by people saying it's not capable of long drives... Please don't say that where my Mustang can hear you...I don't want it to start doubting itself.

 

[devmach-e]

Well, yeah if we decide to define it that way I go through several towns on the way to work and back. But for pleasure driving of any distance I enjoy driving my 24 year old pickup with over 300,000 miles on it or the Shelby. There is really no point in using the MME when it doesn't do anything I want to do on a long trip- out of town.

So what’s the minimum amount of miles a car has to be driven to be considered “out of town”? More than the range of the car when fully charged?

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