Best Guess for Delivery???

[MachE2021]

In May. I was one of those with a reservation earlier during the year and due to interactions with a ford dealership cancelled my reservation only to change my mind again and come and make another one in May... smh I should have just left it alone.

Interesting. My reservation # is 10074xxx and I reserved mine in mid-June, weeks after you. It seems like the numbering doesn’t entirely go in order.

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[mamejunkie]

To be honest, I actually would rather get it early next year. Hopefully by that time the pandemic is under control and we can enjoy the MME. Otherwise it will sit the in garage collecting dust.

 

[dbsb3233]

To be honest, I actually would rather get it early next year. Hopefully by that time the pandemic is under control and we can enjoy the MME. Otherwise it will sit the in garage collecting dust.

OTOH, it's a great time for joyrides! As long as you don't have a crowded destination in mind. We'll probably enjoy some drives around the mountains when we get ours.

 

[dbsb3233]

Probably somewhere in the range of 8,000-12,000 Mach Es will be produced for the North American market by the end of December.

Then add probably another month to that timeframe for them to show up at the dealership.

Which means for a potential 2020 US delivery, probably needs to be built no later than the end of November. I was thinking maybe ~5000 by then.

 

[darren]

I have a Premium @ 100139xx and I expect it in the first calendar quarter of 2021. (being realistic) If I get it at the end of 2020...great, merry Christmas to me. ? I think 10-18k range is in the gray area where if luck has it and no unforeseen delays, we may get it in 2020.

FE/Premium reservations under 10,000 has a good chance of 2020 delivery. Every 5k is about 1 month back.

My number is 118xx, so most likely it will be 2021 for me too. But hoping for people in front of me to cancel their MME reservation for Model Y. If there are enough cancellations, I might have a shot for 2020 delivery.

 

[ChasingCoral]

My number is 118xx, so most likely it will be 2021 for me too. But hoping for people in front of me to cancel their MME reservation for Model Y. If there are enough cancellations, I might have a shot for 2020 delivery.

I would give an 11,000 Premium reservation number a good chance for delivery in 2020. Remember that the reservation numbers started with 4,000.

 

[ChasingCoral]

I have a Premium @ 100139xx and I expect it in the first calendar quarter of 2021. (being realistic) If I get it at the end of 2020...great, merry Christmas to me. ? I think 10-18k range is in the gray area where if luck has it and no unforeseen delays, we may get it in 2020.

FE/Premium reservations under 10,000 has a good chance of 2020 delivery. Every 5k is about 1 month back.

Reminder: It will be all FEs delivered in 2020.

 

[dbsb3233]

Reminder: It will be all FEs delivered in 2020.

Might be all of the FEs, but may not be only FEs. (If they're actually able to stay on track with full production by Oct 26.

 

[ChasingCoral]

Might be all of the FEs, but may not be only FEs. (If they're actually able to stay on track with full production by Oct 26.

Correct. With the latest word of 256 vehicles/day through the line, it definitely shouldn't be only FEs.

 

[Kamuelaflyer]

Unfortunately, I think there are far too many variables to accurately predict when most anyone other than those who have ordered an FE will receive their cars. Presuming Chasingcoral's number and analysis (elsewhere) are correct with 5% of the 20,000 units being FE's, 50% being premiums, etc, we're still left with huge variables:

1. What percentage of reservations holders have or will convert to orders prior to the August cut off for scheduling (at least for the first run)? 50%? 66%? 33%? 25%? If you're towards the tail end of reservations, converted early and 25% converted there's an excellent chance you'll be in the first production run. But if 2/3's converted before the August cut-off? That's potentially another story altogether.

2. What percentage of the total 50,000 was actually ordered? That will likely affect the first couple of runs as well.

3. When will the dealer demo cars be built and what will they order? If there are 4,000 nationwide and 80% of the dealer orders are for premiums (made up number) and those are prioritized for production and delivery that could leave up to 1/2 the Premium orders unfulfilled in the first run.

4. Just what are the actual trim line percentages? While I think Chasingcoral's estimates are a good educated guess, my believing so doesn't make it so. The actual trim level order split could throw a monkey wrench into any calculations we're mentally making for when we might see the cars.

5. How many cars will be slated to the EU in the first production run? They've been waiting just as long, as there is life outside the United States.

6. Pandemic. Yeah, a big unknown.

Ford has the answers to these (except for #6) and they're not sharing. While it's easy to say "be patient," I'm like my cats ... I have no patience.

Aloha.

 

[dbsb3233]

5. How many cars will be slated to the EU in the first production run? They've been waiting just as long, as there is life outside the United States.

I think we have a pretty good handle on this one... None. Ford has made it pretty clear that because of the reshuffling due to COVID delays, the first batch will be destined for US delivery (or North America, can't remember which).

I guess that depends on how you define "production run" too, but in a general sense, I'd say at least the first month of full production should be US (or NA) orders. At least for actual customer units (the demos are still fuzzy).

 

[Kamuelaflyer]

I think we have a pretty good handle on this one... None. Ford has made it pretty clear that because of the reshuffling due to COVID delays, the first batch will be destined for US delivery (or North America, can't remember which).

I guess that depends on how you define "production run" too, but in a general sense, I'd say at least the first month of full production should be US (or NA) orders. At least for actual customer units (the demos are still fuzzy).

I think I was basing that comment on (take your pick as to priority):

Reports that Ford wanted some deliveries to the EU late this year and had posted (here? elsewhere?) earlier delivery time on some EU/UK website or communication. I haven't actually verified those claims though. Too lazy as I live in what the car manufacturers call "North America" (though it's not) so it's not of particular personal interest to me atm.

Lack of Coffee. It's early. We're UTC -10 out here.

And of course, I want my Infinite Blue Premium ... now.

 

[dbsb3233]

I think I was basing that comment on (take your pick as to priority):

Reports that Ford wanted some deliveries to the EU late this year and had posted (here? elsewhere?) earlier delivery time on some EU/UK website or communication. I haven't actually verified those claims though. Too lazy as I live in what the car manufacturers call "North America" (though it's not) so it's not of particular personal interest to me atm.

Lack of Coffee. It's early. We're UTC -10 out here.

And of course, I want my Infinite Blue Premium ... now.

In the early info that was certainly the plan. I think it was around early June (or was it May?) that the reshuffled plan became apparent where they said the US would be getting some deliveries in 2020 but all European deliveries were pushed to 2021. I think all the European posters we've heard from said their websites now show 2021 (if I'm remembering correctly).

 

[highland58]

I think I was basing that comment on (take your pick as to priority):

Reports that Ford wanted some deliveries to the EU late this year and had posted (here? elsewhere?) earlier delivery time on some EU/UK website or communication. I haven't actually verified those claims though. Too lazy as I live in what the car manufacturers call "North America" (though it's not) so it's not of particular personal interest to me atm.

Lack of Coffee. It's early. We're UTC -10 out here.

And of course, I want my Infinite Blue Premium ... now.

Is Hawaii West America? ?

 

[Kamuelaflyer]

In the early info that was certainly the plan. I think it was around early June (or was it May?) that the reshuffled plan became apparent where they said the US would be getting some deliveries in 2020 but all European deliveries were pushed to 2021. I think all the European posters we've heard from said their websites now show 2021 (if I'm remembering correctly).

Yeah, I can't find anything recently published that says anything other than "Early next year." Ironically, the news articles about it quote this forum.

We can cross that one off our list unless any of our EU/UK members have another idea. Or if Ford actually wants to deliver some cars really early next year. That still leaves a boatload of variables as to when we'll see them in North America (and that odd archipelego 2500 nm southwest of Los Angeles).

Personally I want to take the thing up to the top of Maunkea (13,803 ft/4,207 m) when there's snow on the ground and do a video from there including the ride back down the mountain to the Visitor's Center (9,500 ft/2895 m) "testing" the regen braking . So winter works for me.

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