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Best Guess for Delivery???

inshimbi

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I would give an 11,000 Premium reservation number a good chance for delivery in 2020. Remember that the reservation numbers started with 4,000.
so does it mean that there is a possibility of the Tax Credit running out on on those of us who will likely get ours in 2021 since Ford has other hybrid cars ??
 

dbsb3233

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That was my order date (day one). Reservation date was 1/15/2020.
Ah, that makes more sense. Sorry, misunderstood.

I'm in the 29000's (Premium). I'm guessing February, plus or minus maybe a month. Probably similar for yours with a number a few thousand later (Feb-Mar). Just my guess though.
 

dbsb3233

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so does it mean that there is a possibility of the Tax Credit running out on on those of us who will likely get ours in 2021 since Ford has other hybrid cars ??
No. Has to be a plug-in (BEV or PHEV) to count toward the $7500 federal tax credit limit. Ford had 80,000 left to start 2020. They're selling a scant few thousand plug-ins in most of 2020 (before the Mach-e starts selling). And even then, only about 20,000 2021 MMEs are expected to sell in the US.

Plus it takes a few quarters for the credit to phase out after the 200k number is hit. I think it's safe through 2Q2022.
 

ChasingCoral

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Technically, in this situation, glass half full, especially if it was delayed until April. My current lease ends then, so I'd have minimal rollover if I take delivery in April, if any at all. January or December delivery, I would be rolling in a few thousand dollars.

Reservation date was 1/15/2020. ORDER conversion date (day one) was 6/27/2020.
April is probably a reasonable guess for delivery.
 

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April is probably a reasonable guess for delivery.
I guess I'm one of the few that's relieved that I may get a later delivery date... haha!
 
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  • Thread starter
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That number probably never had a chance to be delivered in 2020. That looks like one of the latest reservation numbers. Did you make the reservation in June?
I made it July.
 

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I made it July.
Hi everyone, I have been reading everyone’s thoughts on when the MME will be delivered and to be honest I am confused with all the number sequences and what will be produced first. So what is a guess for a premium MME AWD extended battery with a reservation # of 10019190 and order date of 6/39/2020. Thanks.
 

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Hi everyone, I have been reading everyone’s thoughts on when the MME will be delivered and to be honest I am confused with all the number sequences and what will be produced first. So what is a guess for a premium MME AWD extended battery with a reservation # of 10019190 and order date of 6/39/2020. Thanks.
Did you have a reservation before placing the order? If do what was the Rez date? Or did you order directly from a dealer without a reservation?
 

ChasingCoral

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Hi everyone, I have been reading everyone’s thoughts on when the MME will be delivered and to be honest I am confused with all the number sequences and what will be produced first. So what is a guess for a premium MME AWD extended battery with a reservation # of 10019190 and order date of 6/39/2020. Thanks.
I'll guess your reservation was made sometime between 11/20-11/23?

Numbers started with 4000, meaning yours is within the first 15,000 or so reserved. About 1/3 of those were GTs, so you're really closer to 10,000 reservations. We don't know what the conversion rate has been but we do know the first produced/delivered will be GTs and a bunch of the early production will be Premiums. We also know about 2,000 of the first run will be FCTPs.

Since it looks like around 10,000 will be produced before the end of the year, I'd give it a reasonable shot you'll get your car in late 2020 but it might be early 2021.
 

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Did you have a reservation before placing the order? If do what was the Rez date? Or did you order directly from a dealer without a reservation?
Yes had the reservation before I placed the order and the reservation date was 11/21/2019.
 

ChasingCoral

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I'll guess your reservation was made sometime between 11/20-11/23?

Numbers started with 4000, meaning yours is within the first 15,000 or so reserved. About 1/3 of those were GTs, so you're really closer to 10,000 reservations. We don't know what the conversion rate has been but we do know the first produced/delivered will be GTs and a bunch of the early production will be Premiums. We also know about 2,000 of the first run will be FCTPs.

Since it looks like around 10,000 will be produced before the end of the year, I'd give it a reasonable shot you'll get your car in late 2020 but it might be early 2021.
ps: The rest of the work behind this is in my v3 production guesstimate: https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/production-runs-line-output-guesstimates.1033/post-25477
 

RyZt

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Numbers started with 4000, meaning yours is within the first 15,000 or so reserved. About 1/3 of those were GTs, so you're really closer to 10,000 reservations. We don't know what the conversion rate has been but we do know the first produced/delivered will be GTs and a bunch of the early production will be Premiums. We also know about 2,000 of the first run will be FCTPs.

Since it looks like around 10,000 will be produced before the end of the year, I'd give it a reasonable shot you'll get your car in late 2020 but it might be early 2021.
You excluded GT, but I think you forgot to exclude European orders.
 

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I'll guess your reservation was made sometime between 11/20-11/23?

Numbers started with 4000, meaning yours is within the first 15,000 or so reserved. About 1/3 of those were GTs, so you're really closer to 10,000 reservations. We don't know what the conversion rate has been but we do know the first produced/delivered will be GTs and a bunch of the early production will be Premiums. We also know about 2,000 of the first run will be FCTPs.

Since it looks like around 10,000 will be produced before the end of the year, I'd give it a reasonable shot you'll get your car in late 2020 but it might be early 2021.
Thanks for the info, you made the math very simple
 

Kamuelaflyer

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The math I’m using to guess on my delivery is to figure my percentile in overall orders. I’m in the 35,000 Rez/order numbers. That puts me roughly right at the “bottom” 30%. I’m presuming that this holds true for US orders as well and that cancellations or failures to convert will be evenly distributed throughout the reservations. So figuring 17,000 (includes the dealer cars but excluded 5,000 GTs as I ordered a premium and GTs are built last) cars for the NA market. Thus, they need to build about 12000 NA Cars to get to me. Or overall they need to build about 31,500 cars before mine shows up if US & EU orders are all built together in order of Rez (again excluding the GTs). Then looking at the guesstimate by @ChasingCoral (elsewhere on the forums) as to production, for me, that’s probably at the end of Run 2. Add in 6 to 8 weeks for delivery (I live in Hawaii, it’ll be slow). Mid May 2021 or somewhat later.

Obviously there are so many unknowns and variables that it’s not funny. We don’t know how many will roll off the assembly lines in run 1 or 2. We don’t know when they’ll start building EU and UK cars and whether they’ll schedule those with the NA car production. We don’t know the conversion rate (for Tesla, I’ve read that’s ranged from less than 30% to way high). We don’t know if cancellations are evenly distributed or not. We just don’t know much at all.

So mostly this is an exercise in futility. But I suspect we will begin to see a bit more information and numbers leaking out come September and October.
 
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