Checking out alternatives

[Shayne]

I already have two ICE vehicles. After I get the MME I'll have one BEV and one ICE.

Just because I have a realistic view of the marketplace doesn't mean I don't think BEVs aren't a good fit for SOME situations.

But I also don't have rose-colored glasses on and pretend that they're perfect for everyone. Far from it. The experts predict maybe 30% BEV new vehicle market share by 2030, which sounds about right to me. That means 70% not BEV, for many of the reasons I've explained here. I'm a realist.

Has nothing to do with realistic and more to do with short sighted and the love to debate I think. How many trips a year will you be going that requires you to use others chargers? What distances? You have absolutely no idea how many bev's there will be in 2030. Did you know there would be a BEV Mustang in 2010? Do you think bev progress has been faster than forecasted to date?

Most people prefer tube TV's and I do not see that ever changing. Most people have only LAN lines I do not think we will ever get rid of that or have anything better. Rose color glasses not required just a good nose to smell the coffee.

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[DBC]

Thanks. That’s perfect.

What is the out the door price for those two cars. The $42k Bolt rolls out the door under $32k all day.

I don't think that's an apples to apples comparison because the drive and handling are very different. It would be like comparing a standard BMW to the "M" version. The size will be the same but other things won't be. For most people nothing beats an electric drive.

Also, one of those vehicles will get you in the HOV lane and one won't, and one will let you not go to the gas station and one won't.

Here is a slightly different way of looking at it. In CA you can get a top trim level Bolt with DC fast charging for well under $30K. If you look around maybe $26K. If all you care about is the economics of getting from A to B then this would be a far better choice than a Mach-E.

 

[dbsb3233]

Has nothing to do with realistic and more to do with short sighted and the love to debate I think. How many trips a year will you be going that requires you to use others chargers? What distances? You have absolutely no idea how many bev's there will be in 2030. Did you know there would be a BEV Mustang in 2010? Do you think bev progress has been faster than forecasted to date?

Most people prefer tube TV's and I do not see that ever changing. Most people have only LAN lines I do not think we will ever get rid of that or have anything better. Rose color glasses not required just a good nose to smell the coffee.

Wow, wake up on the wrong side of the bed today?

Lyt suggested that people not having overnight home charging (thus having to charge full time at retail stations) won't be a barrier to BEV adoption. I disagree, and gave the realistic reasons why. Reasons that are pretty widely acknowledged by experts too.

If you agree with him that lack of easy/cheap home charging won't be a barrier, so be it. You're free to disagree. No need to get snippy about it.

Here's one of those expert projections I'm referring to, BTW...

https://evadoption.com/ev-sales/ev-sales-forecasts/

 

[DBC]

The experts predict maybe 30% BEV new vehicle market share (US) by 2030, which sounds about right to me. That means 70% not BEV, for many of the reasons I've explained here. I'm a realist.

Experts continually make the same mistake as everyone else. They overestimate how quickly new technology will take hold and then underestimate how quickly the transition will happen once it does.

How "realistic" you are may depend on where you live. In San Diego metro electric vehicles have a market share of about 15%. It's probably higher where I am. Given it was probably less than 1% -- maybe a lot less than 1% -- ten years ago, the idea of 50%+ market share by 2030 doesn't seem unreasonable (especially since the ICE market share is supposed to be 0% by 2035). If you live in North Dakota it likely seems insane.

 

[ajmartineau]

So much debate from someone that has never owned a BEV and has so little real world EV experience and/or knowledge. I’m finally using that ignore button.

Back to the topic
EQC and EQB are two cars I would take a long look at as an alternative.

 

[dbsb3233]

Experts continually make the same mistake as everyone else. They overestimate how quickly new technology will take hold and then underestimate how quickly the transition will happen once it does.

How "realistic" you are may depend on where you live. In San Diego metro electric vehicles have a market share of about 15%. It's probably higher where I am. Given it was probably less than 1% -- maybe a lot less than 1% -- ten years ago, the idea of 50%+ market share by 2030 doesn't seem unreasonable (especially since the ICE market share is supposed to be 0% by 2035). If you live in North Dakota it likely seems insane.

Fleet and commercial vehicles are a whole different matter. I was simply referring to consumer vehicles in the US market, like you and I might buy. Regular light passenger cars/trucks.

Different markets will of course have different market share. A 30% US average could mean 60% in CA and 15% in ND, as you suggested.

I'm also not counting PHEV in that. I do think PHEV will become a pretty significant market share in the US this decade. Wouldn't surprise me if we're at about a third each (ICE-PHEV-BEV) by 2030. PHEV solves a lot of the BEV roadblocks, while still putting most miles driven on electric.

 

[DBC]

Lyt suggested that people not having overnight home charging (thus having to charge full time at retail stations) won't be a barrier to BEV adoption. I disagree, and gave the realistic reasons why.
...
https://evadoption.com/ev-sales/ev-sales-forecasts/

You have a point but it's only one point in a possible constellation of points.

The lack of overnight AC charging is only a barrier if you assume that there aren't alternatives. If every apartment and condo complex had a bank of DC chargers then having access to overnight charging likely isn't a barrier. Refueling with a slower DC charger in your complex seems like a more attractive alternative than a gas station. You're not going to be able to charge at 250miles/minute but at 10% of that rate coming home, plugging in, going inside and changing your clothes and grabbing a beer, and then coming out and moving your vehicle sure beats a smelly, dirty, noisy gas station. And note you don't have to do that every night. Just a couple of nights a week. Maybe less.

And of course there is the alternative of AC charging at work. That works as well. Get to work. Plug in. Go to work. Come out and you're ready to go.

The big barrier to these things happening quickly are the state PUCs. Faced with declining demand for electricity, electric utilities would like nothing more than to fuel every vehicle in the country and to put gas stations out of business. But for historical and I'd argue misguided reasons, the PUCs restrain them from doing so.

 

[Kamuelaflyer]

Don't tell EA, but I would be driving an "expensive" BEV even if the cost of electricity was more than the price of gas. After about a month of not going to the gas station, plus all the other joys of driving on electricity, I was hooked and will never go back. I will be buying (or handing down) used BEVs to my kids when they need their own car.

Our local cost of gas here? $3.96 per U.S. Gallon of regular. Our base rate cost of electricity? 41¢ per kWh and it goes up from there. Keep in mind our "off-peak" hours are 9 am through 5 pm daily due to the large amount of solar power. Want to charge from the grid after 5 pm? Prices rise at 5 pm and rise again at 11 pm finishing at 51¢ per kWh.

If you're charging off the grid, there's not a lot of price differential.

Still getting a BEV (We're essentially off-grid anyway and use the grid as a backup, charging our MME will be during peak pve hours from our system).

 

[dbsb3233]

The lack of overnight AC charging is only a barrier if you assume that there aren't alternatives. If every apartment and condo complex had a bank of DC chargers then having access to overnight charging likely isn't a barrier...

Yep, it doesn't have to always be L2, my point was just having cheap "park it and forget it" charging. Usually that means at home, but work or school or somewhere like that fits too. The point being, park it and forget it. As in not having to run back out later to move the car.

That just usually works better on L2. L3 is faster and more expensive, often necessitating time limits and higher rates. Which starts to lose some of the advantages of cheap "Park it and forget it" for the night, or work shift.

L3 also costs a lot more to install, which translates to fewer installs. Maximizing installs at apartments, condos, schools, and workplaces is needed IMO.

 

[DBC]

I'm quite confident of the 15% number. That's the percentage of new vehicles. The last one I saw was in 2019 and it was just about 14% and growing. So might actually be higher than 15%. Didn't bother to look at you cite but my guess is you're looking at total vehicles.

Walking to the first traffic light you'd know the number wasn't .9%. LOL

 

[DBC]

Yep, it doesn't have to always be L2, my point was just having cheap "park it and forget it" charging. Usually that means at home, but work or school or somewhere like that fits too. The point being, park it and forget it. As in not having to run back out later to move the car.

It's really more a question of convenience than whether you have to move the car, though obviously not moving it is more convenient than moving it. But this isn't really the question. The question is whether it's more convenient or less convenient or as convenient as a gas station.

The bigger point is that a distribution system for gas, which is very energy dense but difficult to transport, makes no sense when applied to electricity which isn't nearly as energy dense but ubiquitous. I don't think we should shoehorn a charging model into the pattern used by gas refueling. There are many more options with electricity and the gas model isn't a particularly good one.

With the new SAE wireless charging standard and new app based charging capabilities there are going to be plenty of easy and convenient ways to charge. The barriers are more legal and regulatory than technological or economic.

 

[FredT]

Nobody is mentioning the Audi Q4. Seems like an alternative. The Genesis JW is a possibility too.

The Q4 WILL be an alternative, and a very good one I believe, but for now it's still vapor.

 

[ChasingCoral]

Good thing there's a handy part of the app for logging the issues. Is there a handy part of the service center that actually fixes them?

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