Demand dropping / asking price dropping?

[RickMachE]

Depends on the demand.
Lightnings are still going over MSRP - both new and used - at least here in So Calif.

Lightnings overall are dropping, just checkout Cars.com.

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[Blue highway]

Yes. The federal reserve will keep financial conditions tight until unemployment raises to about 4.5%.
This means that items/things that were in high demand will fall like a rock. Manufacturers will have to adjust prices down to compensate for the fall in demand. The Fed will win, they have to tools to make this happen and it's already started. This isn't some two month thingy and all of a sudden demand shots back up, that's the last thing in the world the Fed wants.

In addition and this is my opinion the EV mania is coming to an end. Morgan Stanley put out a note recently that also stated a similar expectation.
I also believe the novelty of owning an electric car is waining, and couple that with the pathetic state of DC fast charging, demand expectations will only fall.

EV mania waning? kinda sorta... but not really.

From Morgan Stanleys Adam Jonas last week:

Jonas now sees electric vehicles reaching 11% of the U.S. auto market in 2025, and 26% in 2030, according to a new note released Wednesday. That's down from his prior U.S. EV penetration forecast of 13% and 32%, respectively.​

for perspective it's 6% now. So apparently doubling share in two years is waning.

The overall auto industry is going to decline with increased interest rates, but EV's suffering much less overall... only doubling every couple of years...

 

[dbsb3233]

Yes. The federal reserve will keep financial conditions tight until unemployment raises to about 4.5%.
This means that items/things that were in high demand will fall like a rock. Manufacturers will have to adjust prices down to compensate for the fall in demand. The Fed will win, they have to tools to make this happen and it's already started. This isn't some two month thingy and all of a sudden demand shots back up, that's the last thing in the world the Fed wants.

In addition and this is my opinion the EV mania is coming to an end. Morgan Stanley put out a note recently that also stated a similar expectation.
I also believe the novelty of owning an electric car is waining, and couple that with the pathetic state of DC fast charging, demand expectations will only fall.

I agree on the very high demand for EVs (or any vehicles, really) taking a big hit by the Fed's actions. Particularly because it's jacking loan interest rates so high. These are usually very high% purchases and most people need a loan to buy one.

But I disagree on the demand for EVs falling for the other reasons you stated. For their high prices, yes. For charging, no. Not seriously anyway.

 

[RickMachE]

In addition and this is my opinion the EV mania is coming to an end. Morgan Stanley put out a note recently that also stated a similar expectation.
I also believe the novelty of owning an electric car is waining, and couple that with the pathetic state of DC fast charging, demand expectations will only fall.

You couldn't be more wrong about this. Not even close. I've read a synopsis of that analyst's write-up, I think he's way off base.

His alarmist "brakes are screeching on EV demand" is likely a cry for attention, he knows its clickbait. You can go bullet by bullet here - prices have gone up on specific models, companies haven't made their production numbers, and tax credit is unknown for 2023. Tesla downturn in stock price is due to Musk, Musk, and Musk.

 

[4sallypat]

You couldn't be more wrong about this. Not even close. I've read a synopsis of that analyst's write-up, I think he's way off base.

His alarmist "brakes are screeching on EV demand" is likely a cry for attention, he knows its clickbait. You can go bullet by bullet here - prices have gone up on specific models, companies haven't made their production numbers, and tax credit is unknown for 2023. Tesla downturn in stock price is due to Musk, Musk, and Musk.

Is that why Tesla is pushing more cars this month thru the $3750 discount announced earlier and the now 10,000 mile free supercharger credit ?

 

[Phil Martin]

You couldn't be more wrong about this. Not even close. I've read a synopsis of that analyst's write-up, I think he's way off base.

His alarmist "brakes are screeching on EV demand" is likely a cry for attention, he knows its clickbait. You can go bullet by bullet here - prices have gone up on specific models, companies haven't made their production numbers, and tax credit is unknown for 2023. Tesla downturn in stock price is due to Musk, Musk, and Musk.

The state of the charging infrastructure is the biggest roadblock to electric vehicle adoption.

Sales expectations and demand are falling.

 

[Phil Martin]

EV mania waning? kinda sorta... but not really.

From Morgan Stanleys Adam Jonas last week:

Jonas now sees electric vehicles reaching 11% of the U.S. auto market in 2025, and 26% in 2030, according to a new note released Wednesday. That's down from his prior U.S. EV penetration forecast of 13% and 32%, respectively.​

for perspective it's 6% now. So apparently doubling share in two years is waning.

The overall auto industry is going to decline with increased interest rates, but EV's suffering much less overall... only doubling every couple of years...

The problem is once growth starts to slow, investment capital starts to dry up. At one point, investors thought EV markets were worth a trillion and a half. Now there's EV makers that will bust.

 

[mjs020294]

I think the bubble will burst on used, and new, car prices in the first quarter. If demand is declines slightly the stock levels will bounce back.

 

[8Urchvy]

All of the above is true in some fashion.
EV market is slowing
Used car prices are dropping (I sold my 21 GTPE with 2,800 Miles on it in october to a Ford dealership for $65.5K, they started at $71K and now down to $64K...and not sold! If interested then link is below...I added Tint, PPF, and Ceramic coat.

https://www.randallreedsplanetford.com/inventory/pre-owned-specials/models-Ford-Mustang_Mach--E/

Take a step back and think...if you are an average joe, does it make sense to spend $70K and have a $1K monthly payment right now with interest rates and looming recession.

 

[mjs020294]

Used car prices are dropping

Used car prices dropping will impact what people are prepared to pay for new cars. We have a Mach E that is currently in shipping and is scheduled for delivery the first week of 2023. The loss of $3,750 tax credit plus a $4,000 reduction in our trade value since September, and resale prices sliding make buying the Mach E a far less certain proposition. We will probably pass on the ordered Mach E for now and see where the market goes.

 

[Logal727]

EV mania waning? kinda sorta... but not really.

From Morgan Stanleys Adam Jonas last week:

Jonas now sees electric vehicles reaching 11% of the U.S. auto market in 2025, and 26% in 2030, according to a new note released Wednesday. That's down from his prior U.S. EV penetration forecast of 13% and 32%, respectively.​

for perspective it's 6% now. So apparently doubling share in two years is waning.

The overall auto industry is going to decline with increased interest rates, but EV's suffering much less overall... only doubling every couple of years...

I mean, I'm never going back and I'm telling anyone I talk to about it and they all wanna go EV for their next vehicles once it's easier to get one

 

[Blue highway]

The problem is once growth starts to slow, investment capital starts to dry up. At one point, investors thought EV markets were worth a trillion and a half. Now there's EV makers that will bust.

The car business is going to be hammered by interest rates and there will be a lot of casualties in the EV business in the next decade... Lordstown, Fisker, Nikola, Workhorse, others.... possibly Rivian and Lucid... In the world of 2023, the idiotic capitalization levels of most of these companies is difficult to justify.

Despite this, I don't think that capital will completely dry up for EV companies because the hammer of not being able to sell ICE cars in lots of places within 7 years changes a lot of things.

EVs are ~doubling in sales every year... at the expense of ICE sales. Where will the car business go?

• Legacy auto?
• Chinese imports?
• Startups?

Just an observation, the finance houses have repeatedly missed the EV sales growth by ridiculous margins. The investment houses still regularly state that legacy auto will dominate in EV sales. That didn't happen in China, It is not happening in Europe, and it may not happen in the US. We will see.

From Wiki

In 2022 - Global EV sales will top 10M

 

[ADDZ71]

Yes. The federal reserve will keep financial conditions tight until unemployment raises to about 4.5%.
This means that items/things that were in high demand will fall like a rock. Manufacturers will have to adjust prices down to compensate for the fall in demand. The Fed will win, they have to tools to make this happen and it's already started. This isn't some two month thingy and all of a sudden demand shots back up, that's the last thing in the world the Fed wants.

In addition and this is my opinion the EV mania is coming to an end. Morgan Stanley put out a note recently that also stated a similar expectation.
I also believe the novelty of owning an electric car is waining, and couple that with the pathetic state of DC fast charging, demand expectations will only fall.

I am not sure that the MS said that EV mania was coming to an end. They still project significant growth in EV's but have pared back their growth forecast i.e. slower rate of growth but still growing. I believe they brought their EV penetration rate globally in 2030 down from 32% to 25% compared to a number of around 10% in 2022.

 

[Izzle]

Fed's interest rate hikes working as intended. Rates go up demand drops.

 

[dbsb3233]

Tesla downturn in stock price is due to Musk, Musk, and Musk.

In part. Many people were irrationally exuberant on Tesla's stock for the last 3 years. Some of those surely thought he was aligned with them ideologically. Turns out he really wasn't and now they're mad at him, and selling. But even bigger is the fact that $TSLA stock was wildly overvalued all along. Many of us have said it was an irrational bubble that would pop. It was just a matter of time. Now's that time, especially as the EV competition grows. It was always kinda funny hearing the TSLA stans scoff at "competition for Tesla? Ha!". Well it's here now, and growing fast.

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