Murse-In-Airy
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- Rod
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Oh good. Now we get to examine data.Setting aside opinions for a bit, here are some empirical studies.
This is intended for anyone who may be contemplating disabling the warning sound. For those who are completely committed to this path and not turning back: this isn't directed at you.
TLDR: testing has found with high confidence that electrified/quiet vehicles are more likely to be involved in a pedestrian or cyclist accident than their ICE equivalents.
NHTSA 2009 and 2011 studies (https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/811526.pdf)
2009 study
In 2009 the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration released the report “Incidence of Pedestrian and Bicyclist Crashes by Hybrid Electric Passenger Vehicles” with the finding that an HE vehicle was two times more likely to be involved in a pedestrian crash than an ICE vehicle in situations involving low-speed maneuvers (Hanna, 2009).
2011 follow up study, applying more rigor and comparing ICE and hybrid versions of the Camry, Civic, and Accord, and the Corolla versus the Prius
Overall, the odds ratios indicate that the odds of an HE vehicle being in either a pedestrian or bicycle crash are greater than the odds of an ICE vehicle being in a similar crash with odds ratios of 1.35 and 1.57 respectively, both of which are statistically significant with p-values under 0.01 percent.
Simulation study based on BEVs, non-NHTSA (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0968090X18307472)
According to the analysis, electric vehicles have a 30% higher pedestrian traffic safety risk than internal combustion engine vehicles under high ambient sound levels. At low ambient sound levels, however, electric vehicles have only a 10% higher safety risk for pedestrians. Low levels of ambient illumination also increase the number of pedestrians involved in near-crashes for both electric vehicles and combustion engine vehicles.
There may be other publications contradicting these or ones that are entirely inconclusive at the specified confidence levels, though I didn't see any compelling ones in my search results. For any who may be unfamiliar with hypothesis testing, the p-value mentioned in the 2011 passage represents probability that despite the numerical evidence, there is actually no difference between ICE and electrified vehicles--and in this case it was less than one hundredth of one percent.
We're not always fortunate enough to share unrestricted line of sight with bystanders or have guarantees that those bystanders won't move suddenly when assuming the coast is clear. This is probably just a slice of the increased odds mentioned in the NHTSA studies. The car is equipped to provide fair warning with no effort on your part--maybe an opportunity for someone to pause, whether instinctively or consciously, before darting into your path.
For you not to have noticed a pedestrian, cyclist, or furry friend before they shot into your path is likely defensible, at least from a moral perspective if not a legal one. But actively preventing them from hearing you is a different proposition.
So that's the risk side of the equation: higher probability of a very undesirable outcome, however unlikely it may be. It's probably mitigated to some degree by the various anti-collision measures that the car has, but if those were 100% effective, I submit we would have lots of complaints about phantom braking since the sensors would be tuned to stop if in any doubt whatsoever.
Now for the reward side of disabling or impairing the pedestrian warning system (at least in the US): removing a source of noise equivalent to an electric toothbrush or a dishwasher. The slow rolling whir is restricted to 71 dba at 30 km/h and 54 dba when stationary, and of course above 20 mph the sound is gone.
If one still considers that sound pollution, we're probably looking at a 25 foot radius at most, and only during conditions where ICE vehicles are producing no shortage of noise already. I don't have any citations for this one, though I do have a sound level meter that I may tinker with. The warning sound sure seems quieter than the under-hood fan that comes on with the A/C.
Your first study, when read in detail, makes no analysis between sound and risk of accidents. It only shows that drivers of Toyota Hybrid Electric Vehicles from 2000 to 2008 were more likely to be in accidents below 35 MPH. It excludes all knowledge of what else may have been going on. More importantly to me, it excludes parking lots, the one place I think the pedestrian time may be most important. Event the paper’s own executive summery states
“While this study provides useful information about the differences in the incidence rates of HE versus ICE vehicles involved in pedestrian crashes, there are two important limitations to consider. First, the analysis of 16 States cannot be used to directly estimate the national problem size. Secondly, as indicated in an analysis of statistical power, there is not enough data to draw conclusions in all scenarios of interest such as for specific low-speed maneuvers or in parking lots.”
“While this study provides useful information about the differences in the incidence rates of HE versus ICE vehicles involved in pedestrian crashes, there are two important limitations to consider. First, the analysis of 16 States cannot be used to directly estimate the national problem size. Secondly, as indicated in an analysis of statistical power, there is not enough data to draw conclusions in all scenarios of interest such as for specific low-speed maneuvers or in parking lots.”
The authors are admitting that their paper should not be used for anything more than stating that EV’s are responsible for more accidents. No other conclusions about why are legitimate. If we’re going to base legislation on this paper, then all hybrids should be outlawed as that is the only legitimate conclusion made. You could as easily conclude that Hybrids despise humans as you can conclude lack of noise is the cause.
The authors then go on to even admit that these concerns about lack of sound are “hypothetical” concerns brought by advocacy groups. No causation has been proved. Instead congress was pressured by some lobbyists to demand sounds in EVs without any proof as to the safety of the sound or the efficacy of it as a way to prevent traffic accidents.
Your second citation is not available to me in full text but it is definitely not a randomized trial or even a historical data analysis. It is a computer model of human behavior at different noise levels. Computer models may be programmed to show whatever the author wants based on the variables entered. I have to question how many variables were programmed into the simulation, especially background noises, whether these pedestrian near-misses included a varied pedestrian behaviors, etc. But even if their simulation is perfect, unbiased, and all encompassing, I can’t take them seriously for this one assumption in the abstract:
“the high end-prices of electric vehicles indicate that electric vehicle drivers tend to have a higher prosperity index and are more likely to receive a better education, making them more alert while driving and more likely to obey traffic rules.”
On what planet are rich people better drivers and more likely to obey traffic rules? Every time I’m on the highway and get passed by someone doing 90MPH it’s a BMW, Lexus, Escalade, etc…. Every time I get cut off by someone crossing at an intersection, it’s a car I can’t afford.
No study has yet been published to show that modern electric cars, with automatic crash avoidance and emergency braking are any safer with noise versus without. There are as many people postulating the decrease in awareness from alarm fatigue as there are those postulating a benefit from more noises. One side or the other may be correct but until then laws based on hypotheticals are misplaced.
I’ll end this by saying my dog runs out to bark at my car every time I get home. He forces my car to automatically brake all the time. I couldn’t hit him if I wanted to. Not true in my F150. So my silent car is safer than my (still very quiet) F150.
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