Has Ford given up on the Mach-e?

[Shayne]

I wouldn't call it "giving up", I'd call it "trying and failing". They've certainly been trying with EVs. Arguably too hard with the expansion plans 3 years ago. But costs have run out of control, to the point that they need to find a way to purge 10's of $thousands of cost out of every EV to make them a viable product.

Something had to give, because you can't keep going on losing $billions on a product line in perpetuity with no savior on the horizon. Their Gen1 EVs are just a money pit now, and Gen2 getting scaled back and pushed further out is a pretty good sign that the economics probably don't look so rosy for that either.

Battery prices leveled off instead of spiraling downward as hoped. Labor costs went way up (they came out losers of the UAW war). Inflation and interest rates went way up. The tax credits screwed them over (while helping Tesla). Ford's EV profitability imploded. They were closer to profitability on EVs 3 years ago than they are today.

It's not for lack of trying, it's simply trying and failing. A lot of the reasons weren't their fault, but it doesn't really matter to the bottom line.

Some of the reason is the recalls and the defective/under designed components. The problems with the car and how many times they need to go in for service is a reason. The fact that they jack people around and leave them to suffer Ford created problems is not gaining them any loyalty points either. They took the risk of pushing them out first and owners now need to suffer for that since Ford is not making money for their mistakes. Fix their mistakes professionally and get on with it not whine and install limp mode driving and charging software. If they fixed their own mistakes especially drive charge and maintain itself I think sales would be better. Make a dependable vehicle. They will need to as it musk never be a guppy bowl but others are coming.

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[Old_Norm]

BEV is an inferior consumer solution as free market demand has shown. ICE has been around over 100 years and the hybrid enhancement will keep that going until long after we are all dead.

Fossil fuels generate prosperity and improve the quality of life the world over. BEV’s are fun, we enjoy ours, but they will remain a small niche for greenies and affluents who have several vehicles in their household. Without govt incentives or dictates, BEV’s will continue to be a minor share of the marketplace — there is no EV: long range, low cost and fast charging speed silver bullet anywhere on the horizon which will ensure their position as a niche product for the foreseeable future. Full stop.

The Petroleum Institute says there will be a little something extra in your pay envelope this week. If guys like you were the decision makers in the past we'd still be riding horses or in carts. And I suggest you look up the phrase, "quality of life." Or are you so locked in to the petroleum industry that you ignore the current and future effects of climate change? BTW, what are the current membership fees in the Denialist Society?

 

[SonicBlue]

The Petroleum Institute says there will be a little something extra in your pay envelope this week. If guys like you were the decision makers in the past we'd still be riding horses or in carts. And I suggest you look up the phrase, "quality of life." Or are you so locked in to the petroleum industry that you ignore the current and future effects of climate change? BTW, what are the current membership fees in the Denialist Society?

Yowza. I didn’t know Stephen King drove a Mach E. I loved The Stand, btw!

 

[Old_Norm]

Yowza. I didn’t know Stephen King drove a Mach E. I loved The Stand, btw!

If anyone drives an EV I would bet on him.

 

[medriver]

So everybody has to lose their pants in this game, Tesla lost money for YEARS and eventually took over the market in their segment, everybody was asleep at the wheel and now has to also take a loss until they erode Tesla's control of it's market share to make the volume of sales vs cost to make EVs make sense, this is currently happening and is why Tesla has been aggressively lowering their prices and has decreased revenue.

EV's are plenty mature in some markets like urban areas and short commutes but long distance travel is still not the most optimal experience nationwide.

This is going to be a dance, going to one plug standard should eventually pay off (to make the charging experience better for everyone) but the market is still developing, tech is changing pretty quickly.

So in the end has Ford given up on the Mach-E, this is hard to say, maybe listen to some shareholder meetings and see.

 

[MyMach-E is a Boat Anchor]

Even if that rumor is true, they're probably going to continue to update and sell the current generation for quite some time. They just announced a retooling of a plant in Mexico to make motors for the Mach-E.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ford-plans-invest-273m-mexico-151943531.html

Vehicle has so many engineering problems which are not fixable that a complete restart on a new vehicle is needed. If they are really losing $100K to $150K on each sale, why would they continue?

 

[dbsb3233]

So everybody has to lose their pants in this game, Tesla lost money for YEARS and eventually took over the market in their segment, everybody was asleep at the wheel and now has to also take a loss until they erode Tesla's control of it's market share to make the volume of sales vs cost to make EVs make sense, this is currently happening and is why Tesla has been aggressively lowering their prices and has decreased revenue.

EV's are plenty mature in some markets like urban areas and short commutes but long distance travel is still not the most optimal experience nationwide.

This is going to be a dance, going to one plug standard should eventually pay off (to make the charging experience better for everyone) but the market is still developing, tech is changing pretty quickly.

So in the end has Ford given up on the Mach-E, this is hard to say, maybe listen to some shareholder meetings and see.

Tesla and China have been successful with EVs because they've been able to radically redesign the vehicle manufacturing process to drive costs out, including labor, and external suppliers.

That's where Ford (and GM, and Stellantis in the US which is already on it's last legs) are in trouble EV-wise. They have long-established supply arrangements that are hard to shake, and they're married to the UAW which has exactly the opposite mission (to preserve jobs and keep labor costs high).

I'm not sure if Ford (and GM) will be able to shake those ties preventing the radical changes necessary to slash costs on EVs. I hope so, but it doesn't look promising. I suspect they'll be mostly ICE & hybrid companies for a long time, while sprinkling in enough EVs to keep government regulators at bay.

 

[Herbknowsit]

interim technologies are never good long term bets. .....

and the EV revolution has already happened in the largest car market in the world... China. Hiding behind massive tariffs is never a sustainable position... yet both Europe and North America are trying to buy time... if that time is wasted by automakers pursuing hybrids... then they are doomed.

Let's say for discussion that EV sales and ICE sales become equal. 50/50. At that point, if manufacturers were selling a LOT of EV's, would it be more profitable for them sell EV's as they would be leaving out all the ICE components and, perhaps as EV sales rise, the battery costs drop? Several years back an engineer from GM told me that making EV's might be way more profitable for GM (than ICE) once they can be scaled up in numbers. He downplayed the environmental aspects of "for the good of the world" and stated EV's could possibly get on manufactures "to do" list in order to jack of sagging profits. It makes you wonder ...

 

[Sikkun]

Let's say for discussion that EV sales and ICE sales become equal. 50/50. At that point, if manufacturers were selling a LOT of EV's, would it be more profitable for them sell EV's as they would be leaving out all the ICE components and, perhaps as EV sales rise, the battery costs drop? Several years back an engineer from GM told me that making EV's might be way more profitable for GM (than ICE) once they can be scaled up in numbers. He downplayed the environmental aspects of "for the good of the world" and stated EV's could possibly get on manufactures "to do" list in order to jack of sagging profits. It makes you wonder ...

China knew they couldn’t compete with ICE manufactures given they are fully embedded in the world market. So they heavily invested in making EV’s have large market share in China AND are expanding globally at the dismay of traditional auto manufacturers.

China isn’t making EV’s to lose money…..

But for some reason our media acts like the Mach E has to not only generate a ton of profit, but enough to make up for multiple multi billion dollar manufacturing plants (which will be used for years to come), or it’s a failure, EVs suck, profit is impossible to make, might as well buy an F350.

 

[dbsb3233]

Let's say for discussion that EV sales and ICE sales become equal. 50/50. At that point, if manufacturers were selling a LOT of EV's, would it be more profitable for them sell EV's as they would be leaving out all the ICE components and, perhaps as EV sales rise, the battery costs drop? Several years back an engineer from GM told me that making EV's might be way more profitable for GM (than ICE) once they can be scaled up in numbers. He downplayed the environmental aspects of "for the good of the world" and stated EV's could possibly get on manufactures "to do" list in order to jack of sagging profits. It makes you wonder ...

Well, yes but for a different reason. For EVs to reach 50% market share in the US, it will have meant that they already got the costs way down to manufacture them, enough to make them profitable.

For legacy makers, it's not a matter of making them more profitable, it's a matter of making them profitable period. Gotta get that far first, and they're a long way from that right now. 10's of $thousands in cost per vehicle have to be eliminated.

 

[dbsb3233]

China isn’t making EV’s to lose money…..

Sort of. The manufacturers themselves, yes. But that's one of the big complaints about Chinese EVs that have caused Western countries to slap high tariffs on them -- unfairly high levels of government subsidization for their manufacturers. 100% tariffs now from the US and Canada, up to 37% in the EU.

It's an interesting game China is playing. They probably are losing money when you include the hidden government subsidies. But they're apparently playing a long game to try and dominate production for control sake. It's a deeper agenda for them.

 

[zvez]

Sort of. The manufacturers themselves, yes. But that's one of the big complaints about Chinese EVs that have caused Western countries to slap high tariffs on them -- unfairly high levels of government subsidization for their manufacturers. 100% tariffs now from the US and Canada, up to 37% in the EU.

It's an interesting game China is playing. They probably are losing money when you include the hidden government subsidies. But they're apparently playing a long game to try and dominate production for control sake. It's a deeper agenda for them.

I'm not a huge fan of tariffs but in the instance of the chinese EV, I think the 100% tariffs by EU US and Canada are called for because of the high subsidization you note.

 

[Sikkun]

Sort of. The manufacturers themselves, yes. But that's one of the big complaints about Chinese EVs that have caused Western countries to slap high tariffs on them -- unfairly high levels of government subsidization for their manufacturers. 100% tariffs now from the US and Canada, up to 37% in the EU.

It's an interesting game China is playing. They probably are losing money when you include the hidden government subsidies. But they're apparently playing a long game to try and dominate production for control sake. It's a deeper agenda for them.

What is an unfair subsided amount? Not like we have a lack of subsidizing or government spending on R&D towards future technologies. .

 

[dbsb3233]

What is an unfair subsided amount? Not like we have a lack of subsidizing.

Agreed, we subsidize too. More on the consumer end of EVs than the manufacturer, although it all just passes through so it just "feels" better to some people. Still taxpayer subsidy though.

As for how much China subsidizes, I really don't know but most reports seem to suggest it's massive. This article says $230B over the last 15 years.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/21/chi...uild-its-electric-car-industry-csis-says.html

 

[Sikkun]

Agreed, we subsidize too. More on the consumer end of EVs than the manufacturer, although it all just passes through so it just "feels" better to some people. Still taxpayer subsidy though.

As for how much China subsidizes, I really don't know but most reports seem to suggest it's massive. This article says $230B over the last 15 years.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/21/chi...uild-its-electric-car-industry-csis-says.html

We also subsidize on the research side, battery tech etc. via our national laboratories and universities.

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