Heading to $0 value? Not sure if makes sense to keep...

[Avelli]

If you want to turn $60,000 into $30,000 as quickly as possible, buying an automobile is a great method.

Method 2: buy LCID

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[blkadr08]

Method 2: buy LCID

Absolutely Correct, Probably Method 1.

 

[hartmms]

Maybe in 8 years the battery market will be different. Maybe there will be aftermarket solutions for pack replacement. Hell, maybe even there will be better battery tech that someone makes a swap in replacement that is better than stock.

 

[ARK]

Maybe in 8 years the battery market will be different. Maybe there will be aftermarket solutions for pack replacement. Hell, maybe even there will be better battery tech that someone makes a swap in replacement that is better than stock.

To be honest, I think the touchscreens will be an issue before the batteries. On older analog cars, the a/c switch works just as effectively as on Day 1. But if these new cars where most things are controlled by the touch screen start getting unreasonably slow as they age, that may be the bigger impediment to daily driving a 12 year old Mach-E, not a battery that has gone to pieces.

 

[Mach1E]

The used car market is as hard to predict as any market.

Try to resist “recency bias.”


A perfect example is my last car- 2015 Chevy SS.

In 2015, they were selling near MSRP ($48k).

I bought it as a leftover in March 2016 for around 25% off ($36k).

A few months later, Chevy advertised “25% off MSRP on all 2016s.” They ran that promo ALL YEAR!!

Killed my resale. Mid 20s if I tried to sell then.

In 2017, similar discounts, resale sucked.

For 2018-2020, the car didn’t exist anymore, resale value hovered around 30k the whole time.

In 2021 I sold it to CarMax for $45,000. First time I didn’t negotiate on a car.

Who knows what the future brings? But if the Tesla discounts go away, it will definitely help our resale values.

Boats have been like this for the last 20 years. Used boat values super high because the new boat prices keep going up. The markets are tied together.

Right now used prices suck because new prices dropped.

 

[BigMach-E]

You’ve already eaten a ton of depreciation. It would be a bad move to sell now if you are afraid of depreciation.

The car is not going to be worth $10,000 when it is 5 years old. The batteries are not going to die on such a short timeline.

In fact, if there was some catastrophic battery failure inside of 8 years of ownership or 100,000 miles on the odometer, Ford will replace the battery.

It seems to me if you are worried about $30,000 value going to $0 and you are at year 3 of ownership, then even if we knew for a fact that this car will die and be worthless at year 8, day 1, there is no chance you can buy a similar vehicle new today and not eat more than $30,000 depreciation over the course of the coming 5 years.

And of course, this is a ‘doomsday scenario’, absolutely nothing indicates the batteries will wear out so soon, you likely can push two decades if you will be fine with 75 miles of range to be honest.

Yeah, here’s my thing. None of my varied commutes are longer than 75 miles a day. If the car is still a hoot to drive with 75 miles of range in 19 years from now, I’ll still be keeping it. If the car lasts that long, then the monthly cost of the car “purchase” will have been less than it costs monthly to insure it at that point.

 

[devmach-e]

I have had multiple "Prii" and have no issues thus far. The money invested to replace/repair is money well spent IMHO.

I just purchased a New 2024 Prius and it is by far the best car I have ever owned. They last forever and hold their value quite well. ( I usually buy 1 new car each year for my business)

I plan on keeping my MME for around 4 years and then I will decide what to do at that time. I am in kind of a different camp because I use it for a business. I could take the miles or depreciate it out. Either way, the money stretches much further with that and the "hit" is much smaller so I am not losing any sleep.

I've had two Prii: the aforementioned 2005 with the battery replacement (caused by a seized engine at 202K miles, long story, now at 270K miles), and a 2012 Plug-in Prius (something like 160K miles). Both were sold to my daughter at some point in their life, and are still operational. We have a 2016 Highlander Hybrid, so we're pretty sold on Toyotas and their hybrids.

My plan in 2.5 years, when the Options balloon payment comes due, is probably to keep the car unless there is something way better out there for around the same price as the balloon payment. The car works for what I need it to do: get me from point A to point B in relative comfort and safety.

 

[AliRafiee]

If I decide to keep my MME forever. Putting in a new battery is like getting a brand new car.

 

[RickMachE]

I had a 9 year-old Prius where the traction battery died (over 200K miles, so well out of warranty). Took it to a shop that specialized in hybrids and rebuilt battery packs. We had the option of replacing it with a rebuilt pack for $2K, or a factory fresh one with a 12-month warranty for $3200. We chose the $3200 option because the shop had started to see some issues with the rebuilt packs they were getting. This is not to say that rebuilt packs are garbage, but based on their experience, the factory fresh pack was a better choice in terms of predicted longevity. I suspect that if I am faced with a similar choice with the Mach-E, the price delta between a factory pack and a rebuilt pack will be much larger than $1200, and the warranty offered better on a rebuilt pack, and may make the rebuilt pack a better choice. But that's not a problem I have to worry about for another 68K miles or 6 years.

[Sarcasm font] You used the cost of the HVB for the Prius 9 years after you bought it, and it was only $3,200. Clearly you should have used the cost after year 1 or 2, which probably was $20,000, so you could be outraged or in deep despair... [/sarcasm font]

 

[Mach1E]

If I decide to keep my MME forever. Putting in a new battery is like getting a brand new car.

A brand new car with a worn out brakes, suspension, interior, exterior and everything else that rots, wears, and falls apart on a car.

There are good reasons you don’t see people putting a brand new crate motor in 20 year old cars.

 

[devmach-e]

[Sarcasm font] You used the cost of the HVB for the Prius 9 years after you bought it, and it was only $3,200. Clearly you should have used the cost after year 1 or 2, which probably was $20,000, so you could be outraged or in deep despair... [/sarcasm font]

Heh.

Left out the part where I was supposed to spend over $5K for a new battery after the car was only 3 years old...

 

[SpaceEVDriver]

Heh.

Left out the part where I was supposed to spend over $5K for a new battery after the car was only 3 years old...

I was always told to expect $10k battery replacement within 3 years.

We had a 2002 Prius, upgraded to the new model in 2005 and sold the '02 to family; upgraded in 2010, gave the '05 to family; sold the '10 to family and got a 2014; sold that in 2022. None of those ever had battery issues while they were in our family or extended family.

 

[devmach-e]

I was always told to expect $10k battery replacement within 3 years.

We had a 2002 Prius, upgraded to the new model in 2005 and sold the '02 to family; upgraded in 2010, gave the '05 to family; sold the '10 to family and got a 2014; sold that in 2022. None of those ever had battery issues while they were in our family or extended family.

Yup, we followed a similar pattern. Super solid cars. No regrets.

 

[4sallypat]

In hindsight, yes the car is depreciating harder compared to overall market trend. EV market went downhill. If you want the most bang for your buck at this point. Keep driving it. You could sell it right after you pass the battery warranty. Or take on the risk and continue to use it. It may drive another 100K miles without problem.

If you have the dough and it is time for you to shop new cars. It is possible to find less depreciating cars. Aside from the dirt cheap entry level cars like civic/corolla. Very few high end cars hold values well. Mostly are niche cars. A few that I can think of are, Porsche 911/718, C8 corvette, Ford Bronco, Jeep Wrangler, LR Defender. I don't think any typical luxury SUV/car holds value well. The upcoming new land cruiser would probably do well in terms of depreciation.

I guess I got really lucky when I traded in my '22 Lightning before the big EV resale drop.

Got what I paid (MSRP) when I traded in the '22 Lightning a year later with 10K miles on her.

June 2023 was the last month for good EV resale values.

If I had waited a few months, I would have been upside down.

Plus the $4500 PCO and $2000 incentive on my '23 MME was a really nice bonus.

 

[AliRafiee]

A brand new car with a worn out brakes, suspension, interior, exterior and everything else that rots, wears, and falls apart on a car.

There are good reasons you don’t see people putting a brand new crate motor in 20 year old cars.

Not the way I take care of my car. My 11 year old Mustang GT looked brand new inside and out. Replacing wear items is much cheaper than a new car.

The replacement battery for the LEAF was around $5K.

BTW, I do my own brake and suspension work. I trust myself more than any mechanic.

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