Musings on how IRA bill will affect Mach e resale values, orders, flippers, etc...

[kindofblue]

I would imagine that orders for Mach e's will increase substantially with so many EVs being built outside of the Americas (i.e., Canada--USA--Mexico). That in turn could also impact the near new (i.e., used) market for EVs and PHEVs.

I also wonder how or whether this will impact people "flipping" their Mach e's when they get them. Thoughts?

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[mateo]

I don't think it will change things with the Mach-E. Now IF it still qualifies for $7500 in '23, then maybe they'd have a leg up on similarly priced EVs. But it's still too expensive to be in consideration for most car buyers. It's possible there will be an increase in pre-orders in the hopes it qualifies, but those could easily be canceled in January.

But if the Bolt EV/EUV qualify and GM doesn't change their prices, then those will be the ones flying off the lots in my opinion. In some states you could be looking at $11k discounts on a $26k car. Add a trade-in on a 3-5 year old gas guzzler and you might be coming away with a "free" car.

 

[kindofblue]

It seems that it will qualify for the $7500 credit in 2023 w/the income qualification. As of 1/1/23 there aren't that many EVs that qualify.

I also agree with the your thoughts on the Bolt.

 

[Mach1E]

I would imagine that orders for Mach e's will increase substantially with so many EVs being built outside of the Americas (i.e., Canada--USA--Mexico). That in turn could also impact the near new (i.e., used) market for EVs and PHEVs.

I also wonder how or whether this will impact people "flipping" their Mach e's when they get them. Thoughts?

Impossible to tell.

Higher (or lower) prices on new cars doesn’t always translate to higher or lower resale.

It’s all about supply and demand for the used market.

My last car? Chevy SS sedan. Only built 2500/yr.

They sold so poorly that they sat on dealer lots for months and months. They had to run a 25% off MSRP sale for most of the year in 2016. That’s how I got mine for $36k new.

6 years later I sold it for $45k without even having to negotiate with CarMax. Insane resale!

For the Mach E (at least currently), the number of orders increasing is impossible. Every one that can be built is sold. Ford had to cut off orders months ago!

 

[Nklem]

Since talk of the bill, used purchase values have increased significantly. I just sold my 21 Premium ER AWD to an online buying service and am awaiting final papers. Anyway the sell price increased over $7000 (Yes $7K, pinch me) from offers from just 3-6 months ago with several thousand less miles. It's an Incredible time to sell as they are buying them for way over MSRP (more than 10%). Hard to replace though.

I think the limited production and reduced scheduling is impacting this as well. I am anxious to see what used Lightnings will be selling and buying for....

 

[RickMachE]

Since talk of the bill, used purchase values have increased significantly. I just sold my 21 Premium ER AWD to an online buying service and am awaiting final papers. Anyway the sell price increased over $7000 (Yes $7K, pinch me) from offers from just 3-6 months ago with several thousand less miles. It's an Incredible time to sell as they are selling for way over MSRP (more than 10%). Hard to replace though.

I think the limited production and reduced scheduling is impacting this as well. I am anxious to see what used Lightnings will be selling and buying for....

Your observation (that values are up) doesn't jibe with info I have from a dealer. He says auction prices have plummeted for the Mach-E, with cars not receiving bids. We sold our 2021 in mid-July to him (he beat every online service). Still on his lot today, price is down $500.

 

[Nklem]

Your observation (that values are up) doesn't jibe with info I have from a dealer. He says auction prices have plummeted for the Mach-E, with cars not receiving bids. We sold our 2021 in mid-July to him (he beat every online service). Still on his lot today, price is down $500.

Interesting. Another Friend just sold his '21 Job 1 Base Mach E Select (zero options) for $4.5k over MSRP today to the same service. He accepted his offer a few moments ago.

There must be some Magic happening somewhere. My guess is these are going to the West Coast via truck ASAP.

I do agree recent Vroom inventory is stale. There is a unit a Friend sold to them in January, still shown as available.

Anyway, I am very pleased. The check is in the mail.

 

[phil]

...doesn't jibe with info I have from a dealer.

Thanks, Rick. I can't remember the last time I saw or heard that word used correctly.

 

[MachTee]

Interesting. Another Friend just sold his '21 Job 1 Base Mach E Select (zero options) for $4.5k over MSRP today to the same service. He accepted his offer a few moments ago.

There must be some Magic happening somewhere. My guess is these are going to the West Coast via truck ASAP.

I do agree recent Vroom inventory is stale. There is a unit a Friend sold to them in January, still shown as available.

Anyway, I am very pleased. The check is in the mail.

Mind sharing which service was used?

 

[RickMachE]

Interesting. Another Friend just sold his '21 Job 1 Base Mach E Select (zero options) for $4.5k over MSRP today to the same service. He accepted his offer a few moments ago.

There must be some Magic happening somewhere. My guess is these are going to the West Coast via truck ASAP.

I do agree recent Vroom inventory is stale. There is a unit a Friend sold to them in January, still shown as available.

Anyway, I am very pleased. The check is in the mail.

I guess perspective is part of it. We sold our 2021 for 10.3% over MSRP. I was trying to get 13.9% privately, but one of the two people buying always gave thumbs down. And no one understood that assuming the 0.9% loan was worth thousands to them.

Quite happy with our profit though. I did an analysis of the 2021's full cost, including interest on payments, charging cost traveling and at home, auto insurance, etc. and we still made a few thousand before the tax credit, even having driven almost 10,000 miles. Gotta love it!

 

[RickMachE]

Mind sharing which service was used?

Just realize that values from these services are very time and location dependent. For example, I would have to drive two hours to the nearest CarMax just to get a value. Carvana was big in 2021, this year they're very low. Driveway.com seems to beat everyone for me. Second on the list was https://www.carbuyerusa.com/ as I recall.

 

[Nklem]

Dri

Mind sharing which service was used?

Driveway.com

 

[Pushrods&Capacitors]

Your observation (that values are up) doesn't jibe with info I have from a dealer. He says auction prices have plummeted for the Mach-E, with cars not receiving bids. We sold our 2021 in mid-July to him (he beat every online service). Still on his lot today, price is down $500.

Perhaps. But, our 4X offer from Driveway increased from $59,800 to $62,600 in a span of just 13 days - after the IRA bill passed through Congress. I’m sure there are regional differences.

Plus, my local dealer said he’ll buy it from us for $250 over any competing offer because he has a waiting list of customers for MMEs. Not surprised now that used ones can qualify for the $4K tax credit.

 

[RickMachE]

Perhaps. But, our 4X offer from Driveway increased from $59,800 to $62,600 in a span of just 13 days - after the IRA bill passed through Congress. I’m sure there are regional differences.

Plus, my local dealer said he’ll buy it from us for $250 over any competing offer because he has a waiting list of customers for MMEs. Not surprised now that used ones can qualify for the $4K tax credit.

You might want to read the law.

$4,000 credit for used vehicles requires...

- be at least 2 model years old
- have a sales price no higher than $25,000...

 

[Pushrods&Capacitors]

You might want to read the law.

$4,000 credit for used vehicles requires...

- be at least 2 model years old
- have a sales price no higher than $25,000...

Yep, that’s right! ‘21s are now 2 model years old in some cases, about that $25K cap though….

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