Sadly Saying Goodbye

[slambertr]

Lucid are great cars, but I seen a few comments by financial analysts they most say that they are close to 50/50 shot of going bankrupt by the end of 2026 (Especially if the Saudi's ever pull their investment). The EV market is not getting any friendlier which doesn't help either.

I looked into this before buying. Can't say I've seen any 50/50 analyst reports (I work in the investment business). The Saudi PIF fund doubled down with an additional $1.5 billion funding last August. Lucid has signed partnership agreements with Aston Martin ($450 million), and weeks ago, with Uber ($300 million).
They are shipping the new Gravity SUV and, as some legacy manufacturers (see: Stellantis) backtrack from BEVs in the US, it opens opportunities for market share growth for pure-plays like Lucid and Rivian.
So - all in all, I'm comfortable making the move.

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[ChrisO]

I tend to believe that Saudi PIF fund will do whatever it takes to keep them alive if for no other reason that they are now building a plant in their country, and it seems to me they view this as their "in" to the EV market.

 

[Mach1E]

I tend to believe that Saudi PIF fund will do whatever it takes to keep them alive if for no other reason that they are now building a plant in their country, and it seems to me they view this as their "in" to the EV market.

We shall see for sure. Every company needs a path to profitability though no matter how much money you are willing to lose in the beginning.

If you want to know what investors think about the bankruptcy probability, just look at the stock price.

 

[mkhuffman]

Lucid is higher risk than Rivian. Rivian is higher risk than GM. GM went bankrupt. Risk is relative. But they can fail.

Leasing reduces some of the risk. At least you are not stuck with a $100k vehicle if the manufacturer goes under. That is one reason I leased for the first time. And I hate not owning. If Rivian is still viable when my lease expires I plan to buy the solid state version of my R1T.

 

[ChrisO]

I too, leased my Mach-E, the first time in my life that I have leased a car. With Ford, I wasn't too worried about them going under (even though it can happen, and they can clearly stop making Mach-Es at any time), but just the "tech changing so fast" risk, leaves me not wanting to take the risk of regretting it because something much better becomes available.

 

[Kamuelaflyer]

Leasing EVs is not an unwise decision. I bought the Mach-e as I wasn’t particularly concerned about Ford. If I was seriously considering Lucid right now, I’d lease. Same with Rivian. Id also never buy or lease Tesla or almost any GM EV.

 

[Shayne]

31kw often means a bad temp sensor in the cable. That's what it usually limits to when it *thinks* the cable is too hot. That's a common problem at EA stations. Sometimes all it takes is just switching to the other cable. Works maybe 50% of the time for me. Can save the trouble of moving the car. But will all things EA, it's hit & miss.

I could be overstating just a bit what you should be getting with the SR battery, as I don't have direct experience with that. I haven't seen a typical charge curve for the SR. Maybe someone here has one and can post what it *should* be. After that first 2-minute surge, maybe 90-100kw is more normal up to 40%. But certainly not down to 40-50kw before 40%. That's a bad charger. The fact you have at least seen 100kw suggests it's the chargers and not the car.

Not all MME are equal and not all DCFC are derated. That is the nature of IC's and their assemblance with logic.

Fords view is if you plug it in and it at least charges than that is as good as it is going to get. They are not going to trouble shoot and fix bad sensors for slow charging even if they can reproduce it multiple times in one of their shops. That is one reason I will be moving on also when the time is right.

We saw the DCFC curve and specified home charging speeds before pulling the final trigger and bought them anyway. First ev and like the tech. Quick and quiet. Definitely buying another one also . 650 HP appears is becoming the new norm for a year round grocery wagon

 

[rreddy3]

Leasing EVs is not an unwise decision. I bought the Mach-e as I wasn’t particularly concerned about Ford. If I was seriously considering Lucid right now, I’d lease. Same with Rivian. Id also never buy or lease Tesla or almost any GM EV.

Sounds right to me too, except I’m curious why GM is on your “no fly list”. Concerns about GM’s commitment or long term viability or simply don’t like the brands or their approach to EVs? I’m not beating the drum for GM, just curious.

 

[mkhuffman]

I too, leased my Mach-E, the first time in my life that I have leased a car. With Ford, I wasn't too worried about them going under (even though it can happen, and they can clearly stop making Mach-Es at any time), but just the "tech changing so fast" risk, leaves me not wanting to take the risk of regretting it because something much better becomes available.

This is a good point. Technology changes so fast. With ICEVs it is about owning the newest, but it is not usually significantly better than then last year's model. With a BEV, the differences could be huge as platform improvements are made.

Leasing moves the risk of high depreciation due to technology changes. Of course the lease covers expected depreciation, but what if they are wrong? That is the risk we avoid with leasing.

Someone in another thread pointed out that if you are in an accident in a leased vehicle, the insurance company only pays the residual value of the vehicle. I put a lot down on my R1, so that means I could lose that if I get in an accident that totals the truck. I didn't know that. It is a pretty big deal and does make me think maybe I should have purchased it instead.

 

[Mach1E]

This is a good point. Technology changes so fast. With ICEVs it is about owning the newest, but it is not usually significantly better than then last year's model. With a BEV, the differences could be huge as platform improvements are made.

Leasing moves the risk of high depreciation due to technology changes. Of course the lease covers expected depreciation, but what if they are wrong? That is the risk we avoid with leasing.

Someone in another thread pointed out that if you are in an accident in a leased vehicle, the insurance company only pays the residual value of the vehicle. I put a lot down on my R1, so that means I could lose that if I get in an accident that totals the truck. I didn't know that. It is a pretty big deal and does make me think maybe I should have purchased it instead.

I think the sales pitch is that BEV tech moves rapidly.

Reality has been much slower though.

Since the Model S came out in 2013 the tech differences in actual production model BEVs seem pretty in line with the tech differences in ICE since 2013.

The next big breakthrough always seems to be “just around the corner.” But making it into affordable production? That’s a much larger ask.

Leasing used to be the most expensive way to buy a car, but with the lease deals being much better than the depreciation lately, they seem to be the way to go to take out that factor.

That said, I usually keep my cars 6 years or so, so I would have bought out the end of the lease. And at least 4 years in……. Nothing really changed as far as tech goes.

 

[Kamuelaflyer]

Sounds right to me too, except I’m curious why GM is on your “no fly list”. Concerns about GM’s commitment or long term viability or simply don’t like the brands or their approach to EVs? I’m not beating the drum for GM, just curious.

GM? CarPlay. Or the lack thereof. Although the Silverado EV had CarPlay in last year’s model irrc.
Tesla: Styling (it sucks imo), CarPlay, Elon. 2 of the 3 have been a consideration since the cars came out. Elon’s antics were just piling on in this case. For me anyway. YMMV.

 

[rreddy3]

GM? CarPlay. Or the lack thereof. Although the Silverado EV had CarPlay in last year’s model irrc.
Tesla: Styling (it sucks imo), CarPlay, Elon. 2 of the 3 have been a consideration since the cars came out. Elon’s antics were just piling on in this case. For me anyway. YMMV.

No, I’d say my mileage is the same as yours in this case. I had forgotten about the lack of carplay issue w/ GM.

 

[ChrisO]

I think the sales pitch is that BEV tech moves rapidly.

Reality has been much slower though.

Since the Model S came out in 2013 the tech differences in actual production model BEVs seem pretty in line with the tech differences in ICE since 2013.

The next big breakthrough always seems to be “just around the corner.” But making it into affordable production? That’s a much larger ask.

Leasing used to be the most expensive way to buy a car, but with the lease deals being much better than the depreciation lately, they seem to be the way to go to take out that factor.

That said, I usually keep my cars 6 years or so, so I would have bought out the end of the lease. And at least 4 years in……. Nothing really changed as far as tech goes.

Before I bought my Mach-E I certainly thought that the tech was going to move faster, now I'm certainly not as sure of that. I'm even wondering if the rumored "refreshed Mach-E" is going to be released before my lease is up in 2027.

Now if I had access to the Chinese market, I think what I had thought would be true, might have proved to be right.

 

[ChrisO]

GM? CarPlay. Or the lack thereof. Although the Silverado EV had CarPlay in last year’s model irrc.
Tesla: Styling (it sucks imo), CarPlay, Elon. 2 of the 3 have been a consideration since the cars came out. Elon’s antics were just piling on in this case. For me anyway. YMMV.

This sums up my view exactly! (Except it is Android Auto for me. )

 

[dbsb3233]

They are not going to trouble shoot and fix bad sensors for slow charging even if they can reproduce it multiple times in one of their shops.

We ran into an electrician hired by EA at a station 2 summers ago. Talked to him for a few minutes. He was working I-70 across UT & CO going station to station replacing the cable temp sensors. It was a known problem. They were often failing even when the temps were fine, causing false high readings that automatically derated the charger's power to the failsafe range (usually ~31kw).

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