Wonky_Donkey
Well-Known Member
- First Name
- Tony R
- Joined
- Feb 13, 2020
- Threads
- 29
- Messages
- 1,807
- Reaction score
- 3,026
- Location
- Norwich UK
- Vehicles
- 2022 Mach-E RWD ER
I’ve gone very safe....Sad question, what have you named your car?
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I’ve gone very safe....Sad question, what have you named your car?
I'm debating between Lord Lucan or The Scarlet Pimpernel. Probably go with Lord Lucan as I didn't order a red car!Sad question, what have you named your car?
I pretty much agree with all of that. None of us can know this for sure but you can already see residual value's slipping. That might be a covid related issue but new ICE sales will certainly be affected by Policy.Nick Nick said:
we are looking at expanding our second car and originally wanted a Disco/Disco Sport/Defender - but in 5 years when the ban hits I would hate to think how much they would be worth
So for the price of a ICE BMW X3 I'm getting an all Electric Mustang that carries the kids and will be future proofed for the next 10 years
"jongodfrey, post: 84343
Exactly. Soon I won’t even be able to drive my discovery in to the centre of Bristol. I just hope I can sell it at the end of lockdown.
I think this is an interesting conundrum.
Clearly there are pressures on petrol and diesel cars. Emission zones and their potential expansion, the changing tax regime on cars, societal issues and the impending ban on new car ICE sales from 2030.
Manufacturers will have to make the change in production well in advance of the 2030 date otherwise factory lines and engine plants would be redundant assets. So actually the end of new car sales of ICE vehicles will come sooner rather than later.
What might this mean for used vehicle sales. Well, for BEV’s although new BEV’s will be better than their predecessors so have new ICE cars been and this has not impacted the used car market as the buyers of new and second hand cars are not necessarily the same.
Clearly a general reduction in new BEV prices would potentially impact. However an expanding charging network might mean more people are encouraged to make the change.
Tax regimes will have an impact as well as emission zones.
Regarding ICE used car sales. Petrol and diesel cars will stay on our roads indefinitely or at least until petrol and diesel stations cease to exist. Although with the need for serving commercial vehicles I imagine this is some way off.
There will be a demand from the classic car enthusiasts, die hard petrol heads and those that find an ICE car suits their need better despite restrictions, be it frequent fast long journeys, daily work, heavy loads, towing, limited ability for home charging.
Additionally many cars new bought now will be exhausted by 2030.
The demand for rarer used ICE vehicles may actually increase, particularly for low mileage prestige marques. Witness the prices of ‘ordinary’ 30 year old classic cars.
I am not saying any of this is fact. Just prophesying. However I do believe that the the future of BEV and ICE used car prices is not necessarily cut and dried. Clearly if someone comes up with a low cost 1000mile range battery that fits in a shoe box all bets are off. I certainly did not predict 10 years ago we would be where we are today.
Personally we will hedge our bets. We will keep the Q5 for those awkward or long or urgent trips and to carry a roof box when needed and have a Star White X for all the rest.
I'd hope long before then it will be mandatory that ev cars can have their worn out/eof batteries exchanged rather than scrapping the car.I pretty much agree with all of that. None of us can know this for sure but you can already see residual value's slipping. That might be a covid related issue but new ICE sales will certainly be affected by Policy.
One other factor is the balance of products made from crude oil. If demand drops for one of the fractions the wholesale price will drop. You can't make kerosine without operating all the fractions so prices will be interesting. We'll see if Opec will drop production levels but their track record is not very strong.
New tech in EV's will be a factor but it's a very slow burn. Solid state batteries for example will take ages to flow through to the mainstream. They will hit the high end first and flow down. Then I think we will see 3rd party battery updates to the common platforms. We already seeing this with early Nissan Leaf's with people fitting 40Kw new batteries in 12 year old cars. So if your MME becomes a Classic they will be fitting 200Kw solid state batteries in them in around 2035.
I can see it now, in the future Rear Wheel Drive MME's with kids "hotting" them up by installing larger battery packsSo if your MME becomes a Classic they will be fitting 200Kw solid state batteries in them in around 2035.
I can absolutely guarantee it. I work in electronic recycling and EV's are very much in everybody's headlights, if you excuse the pun. Rare Earth/Strategic materials are a key focus for recycling and the UK government is funding the research in part through Innovate UK. Approximately none will end up in landfill. The raw material value is too high.I'd hope long before then it will be mandatory that ev cars can have their worn out/eof batteries exchanged rather than scrapping the car.
They will probably just hack the ECU and take out all the Ford safety margin. There's enough power to endlessly spin the wheels is that's what you want. Might be fun actually`!I can see it now, in the future Rear Wheel Drive MME's with kids "hotting" them up by installing larger battery packs
AND.... only 50kw charging so not great on long journeys. Unless you stop for two hours each time.High price and low size battery. Utter rubbish spec for the price.
In the brouchure they also offer a 'self charging hybrid'!
Yeah I got the email too and thought - oh already saw that weeks ago LOLI have just received an email from Ford sending me to 'a sneak preview just for me' of a video of VBH doing a walkround of an MME.
Funny that, I watched it 2 weeks ago on Youtube. So judging by the time lag I predict that we will get our cars 2 weeks before Ford say they are ready to collect at our dealers.