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mamejunkie

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Think about the last project you worked on. What took longer, the preparations or the actual work? It’s the whole measure twice, cut once sort of thing.
Oh crap...if its like my last project, we are screwed. Two line of code changes requires multiple directors/managers debating for weeks. Thank god its not. 😆

@hybrid2bev Thanks for the valuable insight into the process.
 

dbsb3233

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Think about the last project you worked on. What took longer, the preparations or the actual work? It’s the whole measure twice, cut once sort of thing.

Once the orders are put into production sequencing, now we know how many parts are needed and when. Now multiply that preparation by a few hundred parts. Then multiply that preparation by several thousand copies of those parts. Everything needs to be sequenced and staged in the right places so that production can run smooth once it gets started. Where are the parts stored? How do the parts get from storage to the production floor? Where do the vehicles go after they are built and prepared for shipping? There are hundreds of things to work out so the process can run efficiently.
And another angle on that... it's EVERY part that needs to be there. Meaning it's all dependent on the LAST part to arrive. Maybe 50% is already there, and another 48% is on it's way in the next few months, but there could be those last few parts that are still delayed from China or something.

Or maybe it's the batteries from the Poland factory that got pushed back a few months and are only set to arrive on a certain staggered schedule. (Which Ford is jostling with other manufacturers for the supply of.)

As you say, there's a myriad of parts and supplies that have to be received, staged, and ready to assemble for a production line to run.
 
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Update from Cuautitlan:

Great news: the last of the big tools has arrived from Michigan and will be set up this week. By August, they will start "production". I put production in quotes because you have to remember this is the Ford Motor Company Cuautitlan Stamping and Assembly Plant (CSAP). They start producing body panels soon (stamping). They'll start painting soon. Lots of things have to be made before assembly begins. That's the difference between "production" starting in August and Job #1 on October 26. They'll need all those frames, all those painted body panels, etc. in place.

Remember that we learned from the early July FDNB (Fleet Distribution News Bulletin), that the production timetable for the 2021 Mustang Mach-E is:
  • 06/22/2020 - 2021MY Order Bank Open Date
  • 08/20/2020 - 2021MY Scheduling Begins
  • 10/26/2020 - 2021MY Job #1 Date
Order bank open - check

Scheduling: That's when they make sure they plan for all the parts in all the right colors, interior colors, styles, etc. for all the varied build options. Remember that Selects and First Editions have body colored mirror caps and Premiums and CA Route 1s have black mirror caps? All you Infinite Blue lovers will want all the needed body panels stamped and pre-painted in Infinite Blue. Of course, we can't forget all those battery packs from Poland, wheels of various types from wherever, and so on, and so on.

Sorry, my source didn't know anything about whether demo units will start assembly in advance of the customer units, so we're still left with guessing whether the fabled demo units coming to at least some dealers in September will be early full production units or will come out of the pre-production units being tested and driven now. I also don't have any more intel about the production rate at the plant. My source thinks it is capable of way more than 1000 units per week but we also should remember they produced 60,000 Fiestas per year in that plant.

BTW, the folks in Cuautitlan were as excited about the Mach E 1400 as we were. Nothing like a little enthusiasm builder to raise morale!
 

dbsb3233

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Sorry, my source didn't know anything about whether demo units will start assembly in advance of the customer units, so we're still left with guessing whether the fabled demo units coming to at least some dealers in September will be early full production units or will come out of the pre-production units being tested and driven now. I also don't have any more intel about the production rate at the plant. My source thinks it is capable of way more than 1000 units per week but we also should remember they produced 60,000 Fiestas per year in that plant.
I think it's clear the plant has the space to produce way more (and did in the past), but all that really matters is what they're sizing this assembly line for. As you well detailed, there's a lot that goes into it, and they can't just decide to triple production one day. It's all sized based on months of pre-planning. The plant size isn't the limiting factor in this case (which is good because it means they might be able to crank out 100k or more in future model years if need be).

As far as the demos, pretty sure the ones we're hearing being promised to most dealers will be production units, not the existing pre-production ones. A few PPs might still make their way around for display but I think we heard there's only about 100 total. The actual FCTP demos are ones that the dealers can eventually sell (after 6 months or 2000 miles). The PP's can't be sold.
 

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Planning and logistics are an art all unto themselves. Odd how Ford actually has a plan, almost like they’ve been doing this for awhile. ;)

But you do know What happens when a car manufacturer flunks planning, logistics and quality control? A Model Y. :p

Yes, I’m being facetious. It post Hurricane Douglas (it missed the whole state ... so far).
 
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As far as the demos, pretty sure the ones we're hearing being promised to most dealers will be production units, not the existing pre-production ones. A few PPs might still make their way around for display but I think we heard there's only about 100 total.
300

The actual FCTP demos are ones that the dealers can eventually sell (after 6 months or 2000 miles). The PP's can't be sold.
Yes, you are probably right, although we have heard rumor they make make demos out of some fo the PPs. I'd be glad to have some of the PPs driven around for "show off" days at dealers.
 

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Update from Cuautitlan:

Great news: the last of the big tools has arrived from Michigan and will be set up this week. By August, they will start "production". I put production in quotes because you have to remember this is the Ford Motor Company Cuautitlan Stamping and Assembly Plant (CSAP). They start producing body panels soon (stamping). They'll start painting soon. Lots of things have to be made before assembly begins. That's the difference between "production" starting in August and Job #1 on October 26. They'll need all those frames, all those painted body panels, etc. in place.

Remember that we learned from the early July FDNB (Fleet Distribution News Bulletin), that the production timetable for the 2021 Mustang Mach-E is:
  • 06/22/2020 - 2021MY Order Bank Open Date
  • 08/20/2020 - 2021MY Scheduling Begins
  • 10/26/2020 - 2021MY Job #1 Date
Order bank open - check

Scheduling: That's when they make sure they plan for all the parts in all the right colors, interior colors, styles, etc. for all the varied build options. Remember that Selects and First Editions have body colored mirror caps and Premiums and CA Route 1s have black mirror caps? All you Infinite Blue lovers will want all the needed body panels stamped and pre-painted in Infinite Blue. Of course, we can't forget all those battery packs from Poland, wheels of various types from wherever, and so on, and so on.

Sorry, my source didn't know anything about whether demo units will start assembly in advance of the customer units, so we're still left with guessing whether the fabled demo units coming to at least some dealers in September will be early full production units or will come out of the pre-production units being tested and driven now. I also don't have any more intel about the production rate at the plant. My source thinks it is capable of way more than 1000 units per week but we also should remember they produced 60,000 Fiestas per year in that plant.

BTW, the folks in Cuautitlan were as excited about the Mach E 1400 as we were. Nothing like a little enthusiasm builder to raise morale!
Thanks for the update!
 

Raymondjram

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It post Hurricane Douglas (it missed the whole state ... so far).
Good for you! Living in Puerto Rico, I went through two hurricanes in 2017, being Maria the worst. We were witout power, communications (Internet, phone, and celular), TV (all broadcast and cable), radio (some restored days later), and gasoline (only one station sold limited amounts). Only water service was not interrupted. I was one of the many thousands who waited in a two-hour line under the Sun (we had a curfew) to buy $14 worth of gasoline every two days for my emergency generator (Onan 5 kW) so I can cook and cool off with fans, since all of my home appliances are electrical. And I also had to wait in line to buy water and other food supplies at the only supermarket that was open after the storm. A week later, most of the services were restores, but electrical power was restores after six weeks.

So you were blessed for not having to suffer what I did. And for us, this season is not over. Today we are watching a new depression forming in the Atlantic, which could be T.S. Isaias.
 

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Good for you! Living in Puerto Rico, I went through two hurricanes in 2017, being Maria the worst. We were witout power, communications (Internet, phone, and celular), TV (all broadcast and cable), radio (some restored days later), and gasoline (only one station sold limited amounts). Only water service was not interrupted. I was one of the many thousands who waited in a two-hour line under the Sun (we had a curfew) to buy $14 worth of gasoline every two days for my emergency generator (Onan 5 kW) so I can cook and cool off with fans, since all of my home appliances are electrical. And I also had to wait in line to buy water and other food supplies at the only supermarket that was open after the storm. A week later, most of the services were restores, but electrical power was restores after six weeks.

So you were blessed for not having to suffer what I did. And for us, this season is not over. Today we are watching a new depression forming in the Atlantic, which could be T.S. Isaias.
98% of the Hurricanes that head towards Hawaii form off the southern, west coast of Mexico. They generally head northwest to Hawaii and peter out long before they arrive. The few that do continue on always get the living daylights beaten out of them by Mauna Loa and Maunakea, both are 14,000 ft tall mountains. That generally historically kills all of them off as hurricanes. Iselle in 2016 was a category 3 storm approaching Hawaii and came ashore as a tropical storm. The damage was extensive where it made landfall. Douglas followed the predicted path, as they all do, for the most part, veering to the north missing every island. It dropped to a Category 1 storm by the time it hit Hawaiian waters (our water is cooler here than the very tropical Pacific coast of Mexico) and was a moderate strength tropical storm by the time it passed Hawaii island. Mauna Loa for the win! Peurto Rico is in warm water and doesn't have our massive mountains acting as high-pressure areas to tear down the hurricane low pressure. No matter what, they're not fun though.


The 2% of storms that form to the south of Hawaii are the ones to worry about. Those, like Iniki, are the ones that have caused the most extensive damage.


Of course, the real clue that this wasn't a big disaster in the making was "The Weather Channel" didn't send Jim Cantori. If he's around reporting on your weather, be afraid. Be very afraid. ;)
 

Daniel M

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98% of the Hurricanes that head towards Hawaii form off the southern, west coast of Mexico. They generally head northwest to Hawaii and peter out long before they arrive. The few that do continue on always get the living daylights beaten out of them by Mauna Loa and Maunakea, both are 14,000 ft tall mountains. That generally historically kills all of them off as hurricanes. Iselle in 2016 was a category 3 storm approaching Hawaii and came ashore as a tropical storm. The damage was extensive where it made landfall. Douglas followed the predicted path, as they all do, for the most part, veering to the north missing every island. It dropped to a Category 1 storm by the time it hit Hawaiian waters (our water is cooler here than the very tropical Pacific coast of Mexico) and was a moderate strength tropical storm by the time it passed Hawaii island. Mauna Loa for the win! Peurto Rico is in warm water and doesn't have our massive mountains acting as high-pressure areas to tear down the hurricane low pressure. No matter what, they're not fun though.


The 2% of storms that form to the south of Hawaii are the ones to worry about. Those, like Iniki, are the ones that have caused the most extensive damage.


Of course, the real clue that this wasn't a big disaster in the making was "The Weather Channel" didn't send Jim Cantori. If he's around reporting on your weather, be afraid. Be very afraid. ;)
My wife and I were in Hawaii in 2016 on our anniversary vacation and got to experience the tropical storm. It was definitely an experience that we don't want to have to relive on a vacation.
 

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Thanks for the update. I want to demo a car that is not a preproduction version.
 

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My wife and I were in Hawaii in 2016 on our anniversary vacation and got to experience the tropical storm. It was definitely an experience that we don't want to have to relive on a vacation.
Last year my wife and I were on a cruise that was supposed to go from baltimore to bermuda, but hurricane humberto decided to visit exactly the same days we were supposed to be there. Carnival smartly redirected the cruise south to amber cove and grand turk, even giving all onboard a 25% future cruise credit because of the itinerary change that was outside of their control. Unbelievably some nitwits on the cruise were mad about the change and wanted to go to Bermuda anyway, or get a 100% refund even though Carnival still took them on a 7 day cruise to a pair of beautiful islands.
 
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Thanks for the update. I want to demo a car that is not a preproduction version.
You're welcome.

I agree that I'd prefer to demo a production unit. However, I'd rather demo a pre-production now to be better informed when mine arrives for its test drive. Those of us with First Edition orders may see our cars at the same time the dealers get demo units.
 

dbsb3233

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You're welcome.

I agree that I'd prefer to demo a production unit. However, I'd rather demo a pre-production now to be better informed when mine arrives for its test drive. Those of us with First Edition orders may see our cars at the same time the dealers get demo units.
Yeah, it's all relative. I'd rather get to sit in a pre-production than nothing at all. If one came through tomorrow, I'd jump at the chance to sit in one. A production demo would of course be even better but they haven't even started making those yet.
 



 









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