Wait for Mach-E or not?

[Snowbolster]

So with all that is going on these days, I have been really trying think whether it makes sense to continue with my Mach-E reservation or not.

As a little background, I have reserved one probably 5 minutes after they opened the reservation website so I'm very bullish on the car. I was hoping to get one of the first production cars at the end of this year but now I'm not sure it will happen.

Basically, because of Covid-19 I'm having second thoughts about the car ROI. Some of the things I'm considering:
1) Production delays - They say it probably not going to be delayed by more than 6 weeks, but I call it bull. There is no way that they can produce a well QC'd product when people are working from home for the near future.
2) Gas price crashing - I mean I don't drive that much anyway so I wasn't buying the EV for Gas savings, but with the ultra low gas prices these days, it makes it very hard for me to pay such a premium for an EV now.
3) Current car market - The dealers are STUCK with tons of brand new 2020 cars that will likely to get a ton of discounts, incentives and what not until the EOY just to get rid of those cars, which makes buying a $53K EV ( Even with the rebate) make much less sense that buying a new Mercedes/BMW/Porsche SUV with all the bells and whistles for a discounted price and with knowing that the car will be of the highest standards once you buy it, vs pretty much unknown on the Mach-E.

Basically I'm still on the fence on this, what do you guys think? Anyone is struggling with justifying the Mach-E nowdays as well?

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[cjljr41]

Everyone has different reasons for making their reservations. For me, I don't mind a production delay because my current vehicle will suffice till I receive the Ford. As for gas prices, they're not going to stay low forever. As for current car market, I guess you have a point about discounts on other brands, but those vehicles will have higher insurance premiums, more expensive maintenance costs, and higher property tax bills (something we have to pay to our towns here in CT).

 

[cometguy]

Yes, everybody has different reasons. My desire to get a BEV has little to do with gasoline savings; rather, it's mostly to avoid going to gas stations, having the car ready to go every morning after charging overnight (and overnight charging isn't even needed daily if you're just doing local commuting -- for most people), saving lost of money via tax credits/rebates *and* long-term maintenence, having that great accleration/torque, not giving off fumes in your garage or even into the world at large from tail pipes, not giving my hard-earned money to the exasperating, corrupt oil industry, and feeling a tad better that I'm helping the world more by driving a BEV.

As for the wait: yeah, all new models are going to be a wait, with factories closed. I heard Mach-E next spring now. I'm not in a hurry because we've been planning to get my wife her new vehicle this year, which will be a RAV4 Prime (plug-in with up to 39 miles of all-electric range, meaning she'll be able to probably go months on a single tank of gas, but she'll have that flexibility to drive out-of-town without worrying about dealing with public charging stations), but word is that the RAV4 Prime will be delayed from this summer to maybe fall or winter now due to Covid19 -- which doesn't please my wife. Our first BEV will be my daily driver, for commuting to work, and I'm content to wait til next year. The Mach-E intrigues me, but I'm also actively looking at several other automakers' BEVs also, with so many coming out quickly now (as soon as the pandemic lets up). To me, the biggest challenger to the Mach-E is the Polestar 2; another thread that's been going on this forum lately is comparing the new XC40 BEV to the Mach-E, but I think that Polestar 2 is a more apt comparison to the Mach-E. Another apt comparison will be the Macan BEV when it comes out in a couple years.

 

[Billyk24]

As for the PHEV RAV4 Prime--ask if the HVB system is air or liquid cooled. An air cooled PHEV is going to be problem some during the warmer summer months leading to degraded capacity. I have both a RAV4 Hybrid and PHEV CMax Energi.

 

[timbop]

1. Absolutely there will be delays from when they intended to start producing and shipping the car, but you were already prepared to wait over a year from your reservation on Nov 17th. Will waiting a couple months more be that much of a difference? Of significant importance is that the hardware engineering is already done and at this point in the development cycle they are tuning and testing software, which absolutely can be done at home. I know, I am a software engineer and have been working from home for the last month and my team's efficiency is at least at 95%. It actually feels higher because I've been getting fewer interruptions.
2. Don't kid yourself into thinking gas prices will stay this cheap for long. Russia and Saudi are playing for market share right now, hoping to put smaller players and frackers/tar sand producers out of business. Add to that the major fluctuations caused by hurricanes in the gulf or a whole host of other upheavals and oil will skyrocket again soon
3. Absolutely there are some good deals on what is sitting on dealer's lots right now. If you want a car now, no question it is a buyer's market. Every little bit helps to keep the economy afloat now, so taking advantage of the situation isn't a bad thing - unless you settle for a car you don't want just because it is a "good deal".

As for me, I want to decrease my impact on the world I leave to my grandkids. Therefore, I will be buying an electric car; actually 2 when I convince my wife to get rid of her durango. My convertible pony is paid off in February 2021, and I will keep it in the garage as a weekend cruiser when the weather is nice, but the 15.000 miles I drive commuting a year won't be in an ICE. If I didn't love driving that car so much I would've traded it in on a tesla 2 years ago when the rebate was still available.

 

[Billyk24]

So with all that is going on these days, I have been really trying think whether it makes sense to continue with my Mach-E reservation or not.

As a little background, I have reserved one probably 5 minutes after they opened the reservation website so I'm very bullish on the car. I was hoping to get one of the first production cars at the end of this year but now I'm not sure it will happen.

Basically, because of Covid-19 I'm having second thoughts about the car ROI. Some of the things I'm considering:
1) Production delays - They say it probably not going to be delayed by more than 6 weeks, but I call it bull. There is no way that they can produce a well QC'd product when people are working from home for the near future.
2) Gas price crashing - I mean I don't drive that much anyway so I wasn't buying the EV for Gas savings, but with the ultra low gas prices these days, it makes it very hard for me to pay such a premium for an EV now.
3) Current car market - The dealers are STUCK with tons of brand new 2020 cars that will likely to get a ton of discounts, incentives and what not until the EOY just to get rid of those cars, which makes buying a $53K EV ( Even with the rebate) make much less sense that buying a new Mercedes/BMW/Porsche SUV with all the bells and whistles for a discounted price and with knowing that the car will be of the highest standards once you buy it, vs pretty much unknown on the Mach-E.

Basically I'm still on the fence on this, what do you guys think? Anyone is struggling with justifying the Mach-E now days as well?

As a newbie to EV's, we all learn the pro and cons of such potential vehicles. The potential long(er) distance travel concerns (locations/dead areas in your region, significant drop in highway driving range) makes one think as if a PHEV would be a better vehicle now for some of us. If we are to just use the EV for local driving so we can minimize the charging and range issues, then would a lower cost EV be a better buy-Bolt verse the Mach E as the VW Jetta verse Audi? My CMax PHEV usually obtains 43-45 mpg on the highway. Spending $21 bucks for a gas refill at $2 a gallon will net a range of over 450 miles while the existing retail efficient EV is going to get 180-225 miles in range-2x the cost. At $3 a gallon (total cost is $21), my PHEV is going to get on the highway over 301 miles. At $4 a gallon (total cost is $21), my PHEV will obtain 225 miles. This is one of my concerns.

 

[jlauro]

I suggest keep your reservation for now. No reason to think about it until either your dealer calls ready to finalize the order or you see something else you want more than a Mach E.

 

[eager2own]

We haven't seen any indication that manufacturing will be frozen in Mexico for 4-6 months. Not saying it's impossible, but I wouldn't state it as a fact that delay is 4-6 months.

Another reason to buy BEV (at least my reason) is performance. I consider myself a "car guy." I'm not buying a GT Performance to save the world (but don't tell my wife, because that is the reason she wants me to buy it). I agree that you pay a premium on a base BEV that cost 25-50% more than a comparably utilitarian vehicle.
However, when it comes to performance, I would be spending six figures for an ICE vehicle with utility and performance (such as 3.5 sec. 0-60) of the MME.
Reducing green house gases is an added perk but, if it was my sole priority, I'd be buying an SR.

 

[dbsb3233]

As for oil and gasoline prices, there's no way they can stay THIS low. But... I think the days of expensive oil and gasoline are pretty much over (market price anyway, not counting what some governments do to tax the crap out of it).

The world is on the precipice of a gradual shift away from oil and gas usage, to be replaced by electricity (batteries for cars, wind/solar for generation). 2020 will see a huge drop in demand from virus shutdowns, of course, but I don't think it will ever get back to the same oil/gas demand point. I'm predicting that 2019 will end up being the peak in worldwide O/G demand. Up until now, new demand from developing economies around the world has been keeping O/G rising faster than electricity can replace it, but I think this shutdown will turn out to be the demand pause that will change that. And with more supply than demand, I expect a low market price for O/G from here on out.

Just my speculation anyway.

 

[eager2own]

Ford didn't stop production in Mexico until March 18. We don't hit 4 moths until second half of July. Again, none of us know if restart will be in May, July ... or later, but there's no need to be sensationalist and claim that a delay of 4-6 months is inevitable.
In fact, given that production of the MME wasn't supposed to have begun in March anyway, it is possible that the MME won't be affected 1:1 as other Ford vehicles in production.

 

[ChasingCoral]

You're forgetting that production was always scheduled to start in June. There are steps in assembly line setup and pre-production that can be compressed. There was also an Easter plant shutdown built into the original schedule.

 

[Mopey]

The arguments for a long stretch-out in Mach E deliveries supposes the plant in Mexico can only produce autos at a rate of approx. 4,200 vehicles per month (50,000/year). New model, or not, that is a very modest production rate for a modern auto plant. In all likelihood, Ford can still meet their 2020 delivery schedule, and maintain vehicle quality, by simply increasing their production rate. In other words, even a production startup delay of 2 or 3 months should have little effect on the delivery schedule.

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