Production runs & line output guesstimates

[agoldman]

I wouldn't go that far. I think all FEs delivered in December is rather likely -- unless something goes seriously wrong.

Well it helps knowing that Ford really wants to make that happen. So yes there is reason to hope.

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[tex]

OK, based on v7 Guesstimates (https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/production-runs-line-output-guesstimates.1033/post-43919) here are my guesstimates on delivery and reservation/order numbers reached.

I'm going with the optimistic 2-3 weeks for delivery that has come from multiple dealers. This is one of the few things I trust them on. They've ordered lots of cars. Yes, most have come from Michigan but Ford's been building cars in Mexico for a while now and that shouldn't add a whole lot more time.

I'll be realistic and assume Ford sticks with the 23 November OKTB date. What will be stacked up in the lot on 23 November?
2,300 FCTP cars, mostly the 1800 Premiums (I'm assuming those FEs will get special delivery!).
3,000 First Editions
1,000 + Premiums with maybe a few CA Route 1s and Selects thrown in for line spacing.
Over 6,000 cars.

Let's go with @dbsb3233's estimate of 500 cars per day loading time. That means it will take 12 days to get those all out, possibly 16 to 18 to be completely caught up as production will continue during that time. I'll assume train loading is a 7-day per week operation.

All FCTPs are moving on trains by 27 November
All FEs are moving on trains by 3 December
FCTPs arrive at dealers from 11-18 December
FEs arrive at dealers from 17-24 December
Premiums and scattered others arrive at dealers starting 18 December.

By the end of the year, I'm guessing North American dealers will have taken delivery of
2,300 FCTP cars, mostly the 1800 Premiums (I'm assuming those FEs will get special delivery!).
3,000 First Editions
5,200 + Premiums and other trims.
Over 10,000 cars.

Reading back over earlier posts and information on EU/UK orders, I don't think they started up as fast as NA orders. Rather than assuming the 60/40 split of planned sales (EU/UK vs NA), let's go with a 50/50 split of early reservations. It may even go 40/60 in the first couple of weeks. We should still assume 35% of the NA orders in the early period are GTs as that's what Ford reported to the press.

Since these are rough assumptions, I'll start with rough numbers:
Of course, reservations began with 4,000.
8,000 Mach Es becomes 16,000 reservation numbers accounting for the half reserved in the EU/UK. The 8,000 are also 35% GTs that won't be made yet, so that's only 5,200 cars to be made.
So, 4,000 + 8,000 + 12,000 = 24,000

I estimate that in 2020, the total number of customer Mach Es to reach dealers may exceed reservation number 24,000 or any order based on a November reservation.

Some time ago on forum factory was indicated to be shut down for two week holiday in mid December. From your table you seem to show production during that time ? Also if factory is closed for production rises question if shipping continues during holiday shutdown. With Kona/LG battery recall of 25000 cars I would think Ford will be be cautious about customer shipments until LG can pinpoint defect. Shipping to dealers for demos is manageable because it's a smaller number and cars are not released to public. That's my guess as far as what we will see - first public cars in January.

 

[ChasingCoral]

Some time ago on forum factory was indicated to be shut down for two week holiday in mid December. From your table you seem to show production during that time ? Also if factory is closed for production rises question if shipping continues during holiday shutdown. With Kona/LG battery recall of 25000 cars I would think Ford will be be cautious about customer shipments until LG can pinpoint defect. Shipping to dealers for demos is manageable because it's a smaller number and cars are not released to public. That's my guess as far as what we will see - first public cars in January.

Please show me the mid-December shutdown. I don't recall that. What was discussed and is in my estimates is the two-week shutdown from Christmas Eve through Three Kings Day.

Just because production is shut down, the entire plant is not. Shipping and Recieving in most facilities operate through holidays with short breaks at most.

You may be right on the LG Battery issue. That's one of those wildcards we can't factor in. However, if Ford is that concerned about the batteries it would probably be cheaper to stall the line than to have to retrofit thousands of cars. We haven't heard that sort of concern out of Ford so far. IIRC the Kona and Kuga issues have dealt with different batteries than the Mach E uses.

 

[PS20221]

Does anyone have any ideas/guesses what the reservation to order conversion rate could be?
It seems that the demand and orders are now very high, which have possibly off set a low conversion rate.

 

[methorian]

What's the status of scheduling and VINs (or at least the current rumors)? I feel like I've kept up with most posts, but I thought scheduling was starting end of September? Guess I thought we'd start seeing VINs posted by now.

 

[ChasingCoral]

Does anyone have any ideas/guesses what the reservation to order conversion rate could be?
It seems that the demand and orders are now very high, which have possibly off set a low conversion rate.

We haven't heard an actual rate but @trutolife27's comments about numbers makes it seem like conversion has been high.

 

[ChasingCoral]

What's the status of scheduling and VINs (or at least the current rumors)? I feel like I've kept up with most posts, but I thought scheduling was starting end of September? Guess I thought we'd start seeing VINs posted by now.

IIRC First Edition VINS should start to be entered into the scheduler soon. We'll see how long it takes for Ford or dealers to let us know once that happens.

 

[MJMachForum]

My dealer in WA just reached out to confirm that my order is correct. Apparently today is the last day to make any changes to my FE order. They said that the car is slated to go into production in the next few weeks.

 

[MailGuy]

My dealer in WA just reached out to confirm that my order is correct. Apparently today is the last day to make any changes to my FE order. They said that the car is slated to go into production in the next few weeks.

I want your dealer. Mine keeps saying late January/early February for my confirmed FE as recently as yesterday. I'm holding out hope they really don't understand as others are saying on other threads.

 

[TxTom]

You're asking a tough question as we know more about the orders that had early reservations than we do about the late orders. The best we can do is a ballpark estimate on these. I'd guess no sooner than April and probably by Summer 2021. I'm betting they will get most of those out before the GTs. At this point Ford has said nothing about rolling any orders from 2021 to 2022 models. I recommend you read @trutolife27's messages, including the recent t one where he talked about maybe having 12,000 more cars that can be ordered?

Thanks for your insight. Of course we are all concerned that while we each want one of these vehicles as soon as possible, we know through experts writing in this Forum that the demand apparently exceeds what is the production capability to bring the cars to our driveways. What we can't project is the true percent count of final orders that will be built. Time will provide data that provides a handle on this important factor. I hope the April-Summer 2021 estimate holds up for my order. Somewhere I have read that there are maybe 90,000 orders and if the percentage of orders converted is "high" as indicated, then I guess the Summer 2021 end of the range could be Fall 2021, or maybe model year 2022. The 1,500 units/week for 52 weeks may produce 78,000 at best.
With the 60/40 Europe/NA ratio, it is tough to even see my car in 2021. Wish someone would state the current order total, knowing that there are 12,000 still that can be ordered.
I'll continue to follow this Forum seeking updates.

 

[MJMachForum]

I want your dealer. Mine keeps saying late January/early February for my confirmed FE as recently as yesterday. I'm holding out hope they really don't understand as others are saying on other threads.

Bowen Scarff in Kent. They also said that they were expecting their demo unit in November and would let me know when it arrived so I could see one in person before my FE arrived.

 

[highland58]

Bowen Scarff in Kent. They also said that they were expecting their demo unit in November and would let me know when it arrived so I could see one in person before my FE arrived.

I went by there last spring and the sales manager referred me to a clueless sales rep (Daniel) who consistently did not return messages and was not able to answer any questions, so I decided to pass on them despite them having high customer ratings.

 

[ChasingCoral]

Bowen Scarff in Kent. They also said that they were expecting their demo unit in November and would let me know when it arrived so I could see one in person before my FE arrived.

We keep hearing dealers are expecting FCTP demos in November but we've heard from @trutolife27 that even FCTP cars won't ship until OKTB. This gives me hope OKTB will be moved up ?

 

[RonTCat]

We keep hearing dealers are expecting FCTP demos in November but we've heard from @trutolife27 that even FCTP cars won't ship until OKTB. This gives me hope OKTB will be moved up ?

I'm hoping OKTB doesn't slip

 

[highland58]

We keep hearing dealers are expecting FCTP demos in November but we've heard from @trutolife27 that even FCTP cars won't ship until OKTB. This gives me hope OKTB will be moved up ?

My dealer was surprised when I told him that I had heard that the FCTP cars would be held up for OKTB. He said that was normally not the case, but added that the Mach-E rollout was anything but usual.

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