Federal tax credit

[Bigfeets]

They never stopped taking orders last year for any significant amount of time. Any backlog would be a fraction of what it was last year since there will be no incoming orders piling on for many months.

Let's talk about how many 2022 orders were placed starting Oct 2021 and are remaining to be filled. Then we'll compare that to 2021 and the chip hold and recall delivery delays. Oops, nobody knows those numbers. Don't forget that Cuautitlan production serves the non-US markets, as well. How many MME are going to Europe/Canada each month. What are backlogs like in non-US markets and how does Ford decide which markets to serve? Apparently, even today there are 2021 orders, converted to 2022MY that have not recieved their MME; I wonder how many. For someone who has waited 21 weeks with no build date, the "existing" backlog is of more interest to me than the future "backlog" since I'm part of it. Certainly, the folks who are thinking about ordering a 2023MY ought to stay optimistic just as long as possible. They probably should not read any of the threads on this forum with titles such as "x/xx/xx week build group..." or "...scheduling next week...".

Sponsored

 

[nvabill]

So you ordered a car in November(ish) and were already behind a very long backlog with all the converted orders plus the many who ordered when the 2022 banks opened? A situation that is apples to oranges for what will be happening later this year for all the many variables mentioned. But I do understand the need for ranting hope you get your car asap!

FWIW I ordered August 22 and drove home on April 30 so 8 months and a week for me. Now they're playing catch up.

Yeah, you are right, hopefully the '23 MY will roll out much smoother and Ford will be ramping up production as they have promised.

 

[yngwenli]

If I was OP, I wouldn't expect it to be a full credit and maybe not even the $3750 credit.

I think like projects at work, any construction projects, pretty much anything, it'll be delayed from what's expected. Remember when order banks were just closing, it was like a 40+ week wait? OP also has to factor in what trim of car.

If it's a Select, try to find one within any driving distance from you and get it since there are so many more out there. My dealer always seems to have like ~15 In Transit. For Premiums/GT/CaRt1, those are more like 1 or 2, and they drop off within a week or 2.

Do people seriously assume that when MY2023 order banks are open, everything will be back to normal in terms of the supply chain? I think at this rate/point/everything else, that's impossible.

The good thing is more EV options will be showing up soon at the latter part of this year and you may want to consider other things as well. I'm keeping an eye on the Macan EV.

There could be another chip hold, escalated conflict with Russia/China, another variant, assuming you order once when order banks open for 2023 and they start producing in Jan 2023, seems unlikely to get a car within 6 months, not to mention there are probably other folks like you also waiting for order banks to open. With probably an increased MSRP price for the MY2023 version, you may as well consider even paying an ADM now to get the tax credit for 2022 taxes since as most people state, $7500 credit isn't happening.

 

[RickMachE]

We will not see normal again until at least 2024. Or later.

 

[nvabill]

Does anyone have the cumulative US EV sales numbers for Ford through 2022 Quarter 2?

 

[RickMachE]

Ford does... No way they hit 200,000.

 

[NJ_MachE]

Does anyone have the cumulative US EV sales numbers for Ford through 2022 Quarter 2?

You can get the Mach-E, E-Transit and Lightning sales data from the latest (June) sales press release. Add that to the 2021 numbers posted on the IRS website. And then add an unknown number of Escape and Lincoln PHEVs. Based on that thy will likely hit 200k in August or September. So consider the phaseout to begin on January 1st.

 

[KrazyEd]

As of the end of 2021, ford had sold about 160,000 EVs. Keep in mind that they had been selling the
electric Focus since 2012. The Fusion and Cmax EnergI also got tax credit. I would be surprised if
they don't start to taper after this quarter

 

[dbsb3233]

As of the end of 2021, ford had sold about 160,000 EVs. Keep in mind that they had been selling the
electric Focus since 2012. The Fusion and Cmax EnergI also got tax credit. I would be surprised if
they don't start to taper after this quarter

Remember there's an extra quarter before it tapers. So for instance, if Ford hits 200,000 in this quarter (3Q2022), the $7500 remains thru 12/31/2022 and drops to $3750 on 1/1/2023.

If they actually hit 200,000 already in 2Q2022, then it would drop to $3750 on 10/1/2022. Seems unlikely, but we won't know until the 2Q sales numbers are reported. (Which is why they allow an extra quarter -- so there's time for the sales figures to get reported.)

 

[RickMachE]

As of the end of 2021, ford had sold about 160,000 EVs. Keep in mind that they had been selling the
electric Focus since 2012. The Fusion and Cmax EnergI also got tax credit. I would be surprised if
they don't start to taper after this quarter

If Ford hits 200,000 in Q3, the reduction in the tax credit starts Q1 2023. There is no "taper" in 2022.

 

[daemonic3]

Really less than 3500 since a car ordered on day 1 for 2023 should still get half the rebate.

But should also be considered that the significant price increases announced and abandoned last month will probably be the minimum jump for 2023 MSRP.

I've only been researching MachE for about a week so I'm curious if anyone saw the increase that was announced/abandoned and approximately how much it was?

My options are:
* Order Aug15 with xplan (slightly below MSRP), increased '23 sticker, and get likely $3750 credit
* Get one from a lot with current dealer markup ($10k at local dealers) and $7500 credit

 

[RickMachE]

I've only been researching MachE for about a week so I'm curious if anyone saw the increase that was announced/abandoned and approximately how much it was?

My options are:
* Order Aug15 with xplan (slightly below MSRP), increased '23 sticker, and get likely $3750 credit
* Get one from a lot with current dealer markup ($10k at local dealers) and $7500 credit

It was $2,000 I believe, but that's irrelevant because after that Ford announced that they have no profit on Mach-E due to cost increases. I expect a $5,000 increase.

Keep in mind you will have much higher finance rates.

 

[ARK]

Does anyone have the cumulative US EV sales numbers for Ford through 2022 Quarter 2?

According to the math done by InsideEVs and published today, they are at about 185,000, which means it really can go either way as to whether 200,000 will be reached in Q3 or Q4. It seems if Ford wanted to game it, it would not take much to ensure that 200,000 happens in Q4 since they will be close to the line by the end of this quarter.

The difference will be whether the tax credit halves to $3,750 either on January 1, 2023 or April 1, 2023 (i.e., whether early order 2023s will get the full tax credit or not).

 

[devmach-e]

My money says Ford hits the 200K threshold in mid to late August. While MME deliveries have slowed due to the recall and production issues, Lightning sales are starting to ramp up. It’s gonna be a squeaker, that’s for sure…

 

[nvabill]

My money says Ford hits the 200K threshold in mid to late August. While MME deliveries have slowed due to the recall and production issues, Lightning sales are starting to ramp up. It’s gonna be a squeaker, that’s for sure…

Interesting you should mention late August as my Mach E was built 7/02 but Ford estimates it won’t arrive until 8/15-8/21.

Sponsored