Ford Model E Division Lost $60K on Every Electric Vehicle It Sold in the First Quarter

[mache_matt]

I do wonder with Tesla if they are making too many cars and what they will do when demand slows down .. they can only discount it so much .. and especially since they take so long to come out with new models like the cyber truck ..

I hope Ford doesn't run into the same problem with EVs.. hopefully ford will release new/more models soon ..

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[Mach1E]

This quote from CEO Jim Farley last night just confirms what I said earlier about everyone chasing the same sector of the market:

“By 2025, we now expect there to be 45 EV models to be offered in the U.S. in the small-medium utility segment. It will be a very saturated two-row EV market.”

Oopsie.

 

[Mach1E]

Would that be the ADM, incompetent service, poor product knowledge, or months long EV service backlog that everyone is going to lose out on? /sar ('cause it's only half /sarcasm)

Nope, just the convenience of a close by place for service, test drives, trade ins, showrooms, financing, etc.

“Convenience” stores like 7-11 are convenient…… that’s about it. ?

As far as “ADM’s” go, that’s a temporary and now gone issue. Back to the rebates and discounts we like!

 

[Guss-E 2021]

CAPEX is not included, but depreciation most definitely is.

Yup. I forget what EBITDA was but Ford has a huge amount of annual depreciation. Not at all surprising for a manufacturer. I wonder if they will decide to take a large amount of Year 1 depreciation on Blue Oval City in its first year. That decision is all about taxes so it will depend on profits at that point. Oh to be a fly on the wall at these companies.

 

[RedStallion]

this is a misinformed comment. i don't know by what metric "rivian is trading higher than ford", if you can find me anyone that has made [material] gains on rivian stock i'll be shocked. rivian is trading -90% down from their IPO

here is their comparative charts for the last 12 months since that's the metric you used

There are many ways to evaluate a company's health and valuations. But for me one thing I always look at is the sales per employee. That gives you an idea how stable the company is and their current market position.
F: $913k/employee
RIVN: $117k/employee
TSLA: $672k/employee

That tells me that if economic degradation continues (which is likely) RIVN will go broke, and Tesla will have a difficult time and start firing employees. Ford will likely survive if they don't make a big mistake (like going all EV). In good times those numbers can improve and the companies can do well at the end, but we are not living in such times and things are likely to get more ugly ahead.

 

[voxel]

There are many ways to evaluate a company's health and valuations. But for me one thing I always look at is the sales per employee. That gives you an idea how stable the company is and their current market position.
F: $913k/employee
RIVN: $117k/employee
TSLA: $672k/employee

That tells me that if economic degradation continues (which is likely) RIVN will go broke, and Tesla will have a difficult time and start firing employees. Ford will likely survive if they don't make a big mistake (like going all EV). In good times those numbers can improve and the companies can do well at the end, but we are not living in such times and things are likely to get more ugly ahead.

The problem right now is carmakers (wholesalers) are stuffing the channel (dealers) with trucks and SUVs nobody wants at current prices. Incentive spending will skyrocket. I think revenue and profit will take a massive hit in Q3 and Q4.

 

[jeffMachE]

There are many ways to evaluate a company's health and valuations. But for me one thing I always look at is the sales per employee. That gives you an idea how stable the company is and their current market position.
F: $913k/employee
RIVN: $117k/employee
TSLA: $672k/employee

That tells me that if economic degradation continues (which is likely) RIVN will go broke, and Tesla will have a difficult time and start firing employees. Ford will likely survive if they don't make a big mistake (like going all EV). In good times those numbers can improve and the companies can do well at the end, but we are not living in such times and things are likely to get more ugly ahead.

This is a good comparison, but doesn't take into account the use of contractors. Ford IT, for example, has historically used contractors for 40-60% of staffing positions. Just in IT, that could be 2-3K positions that don't show up as "employees".

 

[JSeis]

Families are devalued as nation discovers they go horribly into debt to get educated, find a job, buy homes, and have kids. Shocking I tell yah, just unacceptable.

 

[Blue highway]

This quote from CEO Jim Farley last night just confirms what I said earlier about everyone chasing the same sector of the market:

“By 2025, we now expect there to be 45 EV models to be offered in the U.S. in the small-medium utility segment. It will be a very saturated two-row EV market.”

Oopsie.

The car business is tragic and fascinating. - everybody is chasing the EV crossover... next up EV pickup trucks. Because these are the largest vehicle segments with the highest margins. Sedans are dead... can't give them away.

Ford will be on Gen 2 of their EVs before many companies are ready with gen 1. The real race is to get to low cost production so you can compete on price... that takes high volumes and product cost out... being one design cycle ahead will help a lot.

At the same time...the last stand for ICE cars will be middle America and some 3rd world countries. At our current trajectory, the West and East coasts will be mostly EV before Kentucky or Indiana get above 10%. Interesting times.

 

[Mach1E]

The car business is tragic and fascinating. - everybody is chasing the EV crossover... next up EV pickup trucks. Because these are the largest vehicle segments with the highest margins. Sedans are dead... can't give them away.

Ford will be on Gen 2 of their EVs before many companies are ready with gen 1. The real race is to get to low cost production so you can compete on price... that takes high volumes and product cost out... being one design cycle ahead will help a lot.

At the same time...the last stand for ICE cars will be middle America and some 3rd world countries. At our current trajectory, the West and East coasts will be mostly EV before Kentucky or Indiana get above 10%. Interesting times.

The problem is that we still buy (and need) variety.

Thinking things like “the sedan is dead,” is how we have 45 small electric SUVs coming and only a few sedans.

The saturated SUV market will result in many models selling poorly.

We need more variety. Full size SUVs, performance coupes, small trucks, minivans and yeah, even sedans (small and large).

If we use the data here:https://www.statista.com/statistics/276506/change-in-us-car-demand-by-vehicle-type/
Crossovers are 45% of the market, but 45 models equals a 1% market share average per model.

That would mean with any less than 8 midsize sedan models, you have less competition. (8% of total vehicle sales).

Probably why the Model 3 is the best selling electric car, despite being in a “dead” category.

 

[Blue highway]

The problem is that we still buy (and need) variety.

Thinking things like “the sedan is dead,” is how we have 45 small electric SUVs coming and only a few sedans.

The saturated SUV market will result in many models selling poorly.

We need more variety. Full size SUVs, performance coupes, small trucks, minivans and yeah, even sedans (small and large).

If we use the data here:https://www.statista.com/statistics/276506/change-in-us-car-demand-by-vehicle-type/
Crossovers are 45% of the market, but 45 models equals a 1% market share average per model.

That would mean with any less than 8 midsize sedan models, you have less competition. (8% of total vehicle sales).

Probably why the Model 3 is the best selling electric car, despite being in a “dead” category.

from the article you linked...


Crossovers benefit from the shift away from sedans

  Crossover SUVs (sport utility vehicles) combine the fuel efficiency levels of compact and midsized cars and the higher seating positions of light trucks. They gained in popularity when fuel prices were low and, consequently, automakers increased production volumes and model additions of this vehicle type. Between 2014 and 2021, U.S. car sales fell from over 7.7 million to around 3.34 million units. Concurrently, light truck sales increased from 8.7 million units in 2014 to close to 11.6 million units in 2021.



People vote with their wallets... sedans are dead as are hatchbacks in the US.
The model Y is the best selling electric car... not the model 3.

 

[Mach1E]

from the article you linked...


Crossovers benefit from the shift away from sedans

  Crossover SUVs (sport utility vehicles) combine the fuel efficiency levels of compact and midsized cars and the higher seating positions of light trucks. They gained in popularity when fuel prices were low and, consequently, automakers increased production volumes and model additions of this vehicle type. Between 2014 and 2021, U.S. car sales fell from over 7.7 million to around 3.34 million units. Concurrently, light truck sales increased from 8.7 million units in 2014 to close to 11.6 million units in 2021.



People vote with their wallets... sedans are dead as are hatchbacks in the US.
The model Y is the best selling electric car... not the model 3.

I was thinking cumulative sales.

But either way, the model 3 is still kicking ass in sales…….. because of the lack of competition in the “dead sedan” market.

https://cleantechnica.com/2023/04/22/tesla-just-passed-4-million-cumulative-sales-charts/amp/

 

[Ghost Ryder]

There are many ways to evaluate a company's health and valuations. But for me one thing I always look at is the sales per employee. That gives you an idea how stable the company is and their current market position.
F: $913k/employee
RIVN: $117k/employee
TSLA: $672k/employee

That tells me that if economic degradation continues (which is likely) RIVN will go broke, and Tesla will have a difficult time and start firing employees. Ford will likely survive if they don't make a big mistake (like going all EV). In good times those numbers can improve and the companies can do well at the end, but we are not living in such times and things are likely to get more ugly ahead.

That's an interesting way of looking at a business. But does Ford's number of employees include dealerships? Otherwise is it really an apple to apple comparison?

 

[Ghost Ryder]

I was thinking cumulative sales.

But either way, the model 3 is still kicking ass in sales…….. because of the lack of competition in the “dead sedan” market.

https://cleantechnica.com/2023/04/22/tesla-just-passed-4-million-cumulative-sales-charts/amp/

100%. We need more sedans.

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