Will Tesla still lead the BEV market in 3-5 years?

[thekat03]

That figure is a little deceptive, isn't it? Aren't most of them basically go-carts?

If you're bored, Bjorn Nyland is currently livestreaming the 1000 km challenge with the BYD Atto. Good chance to see if it's a go-cart or not.
https://www.youtube.com/live/0RGCzvzO8yM

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[dmastro]

Tesla is losing market share in every market.

When you start at essentially 100%, it would be hard not to lose share as other makers jump in the market.

 

[dmastro]

As opposed to TESLA's quality control??? Hello Panel Gaps, squeaks and rattles!!!

Granted I've only owned one Tesla, but the build quality has been equal or superior to the more than dozen Fords I've owned. Talk about squeaks and rattles... glass houses, people.

 

[voxel]

People are still buying Toyotas (whose market share is declining)…. So I guess it will be a while. From what I’ve seen… folks mainly care about price no matter if it is an ugly noisy sh*tbox.

 

[thekat03]

Granted I've only owned one Tesla, but the build quality has been equal or superior to the more than dozen Fords I've owned. Talk about squeaks and rattles... glass houses, people.

Build quality was worse with older Teslas. Tesla actually is improving on this front.

 

[dmastro]

I give Tesla a lot of credit for pushing forward the BEV market as a whole, they took it mainstream. Tesla was first to mainstream market, doesn’t mean they’ll be number 1 forever.

As almost all manufacturers now are pushing the BEV trend, do you think Tesla will still be the leader in 3-5 years in terms of sales volume?

IMO I don’t think so. Most manufacturers will have at least 5 BEVs+ (likely in 3-5 years) in their lineup giving consumers a ton of great options. I think Tesla will shrink compared to the mass flood of BEVs coming down the pipeline.

It’ll be interesting to see how this rapidly changing market evolve.

What do you think?

I think Tesla has enough of a head start that they lead market share in the US for at least the next 3-5 years. Over the longer term, I have to imagine one of the legacy automakers will overtake them.

 

[Blue highway]

Tesla is losing market share in every market.

The market is not EVs only... Tesla is gaining overall market share in the US, Europe, and China.

 

[Jferrari427]

I think Tesla has enough of a head start that they lead market share in the US for at least the next 3-5 years. Over the longer term, I have to imagine one of the legacy automakers will overtake them.

I think that’s a very high likelihood they’ll maintain the lead for a few years before falling off…I just can’t imagine Tesla leading the charge (no pun intended) for 10+ years.

Ton of stiff competition coming in with deep pockets and experience.

 

[thekat03]

I think that’s a very high likelihood they’ll maintain the lead for a few years before falling off…I just can’t imagine Tesla leading the charge (no pun intended) for 10+ years.

Ton of stiff competition coming in with deep pockets and experience.

And newer car manufacturers as well. I wouldn't blow off the Chinese EVs. They're growing fast, and not just in Asia.

 

[superdave80]

Aren't most of them basically go-carts?

You are probably thinking of these:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuling_Hongguang_Mini_EV

 

[voxel]

Ton of stiff competition coming in with deep pockets and experience.

And yet the 5 year old Bolt outsells them all except for two Tesla models.

I think carmakers are addicted to high margin SUVs and have high overhead with dealerships.

A cheap Rivian R2 SUV might outsell Teslas but I don’t see legacy carmakers caring about high volume, lower margin EVs.

 

[Hammered]

Tesla has a large gap in manufacturing technology and vertical integration, they'll still be well ahead globally. BYD for instance tops china's complaints, and china's other EV competitors are mad at how profitable tesla is even in china. China's EV companies were trying to band together for pricing and tesla basically said piss off.

Their cars are not of a flavor I really care for, even though the plaids are mind numbing fast. I really appreciate what they've done for the global vehicle market overall. They entered a market segment where startups just "couldn't even compete", with a vehicle platform "nobody wanted", and showed the world that yes, the incumbent OEMs were full of bloat and inefficiency. Now they're a bar-setter others can't really compete with as a package. They're easily the value leader right now in the US if for no other reason than their charging just works. They've transformed autos in a way we're just beginning to see.

The difference is that tesla will morph their vehicles into its most perfect self whereas Fords and GMs just continue to throw an inferior product down the pipe instead of making big revisions. They'll just 'fix' it in the next one. As such we're still ~2 years at least away from seeing vehicles that match where tesla was 2 years ago, except they can't compete on price and need tesla's charging infrastructure to do it. In the end the consumers win. There's still not a tesla I'd want to own, and there's not one even hinted at I'd want to buy, but because of them the vehicles I will buy have had their standards raised.

When toyota takes apart a car and remarks "Taking the skin off the Model Y, it was truly a work of art. It's unbelievable," -- they're clearly doing things right.

 

[Jferrari427]

Tesla has a large gap in manufacturing technology and vertical integration, they'll still be well ahead globally. BYD for instance tops china's complaints, and china's other EV competitors are mad at how profitable tesla is even in china. China's EV companies were trying to band together for pricing and tesla basically said piss off.

Their cars are not of a flavor I really care for, even though the plaids are mind numbing fast. I really appreciate what they've done for the global vehicle market overall. They entered a market segment where startups just "couldn't even compete", with a vehicle platform "nobody wanted", and showed the world that yes, the incumbent OEMs were full of bloat and inefficiency. Now they're a bar-setter others can't really compete with as a package. They're easily the value leader right now in the US if for no other reason than their charging just works. They've transformed autos in a way we're just beginning to see.

The difference is that tesla will morph their vehicles into its most perfect self whereas Fords and GMs just continue to throw an inferior product down the pipe instead of making big revisions. They'll just 'fix' it in the next one. As such we're still ~2 years at least away from seeing vehicles that match where tesla was 2 years ago, except they can't compete on price and need tesla's charging infrastructure to do it. In the end the consumers win. There's still not a tesla I'd want to own, and there's not one even hinted at I'd want to buy, but because of them the vehicles I will buy have had their standards raised.

When toyota takes apart a car and remarks "Taking the skin off the Model Y, it was truly a work of art. It's unbelievable," -- they're clearly doing things right.

Toyota was a major investor in Tesla…I’d take their words with a grain of salt? with compliments.

 

[nvabill]

As opposed to TESLA's quality control??? Hello Panel Gaps, squeaks and rattles!!!

According to data from the NHTSA Ford is the number one manufacturer for recalls for the last three years running, facts, not your personal opinion!
Check out this chart, that great big 36% is Ford, hell Tesla doesn’t even make the list. Give me a break with all the Tesla hate, Ford has a problem.

 

[GreaseMonkey]

Tesla has a very significant advantage over everyone else atm. In addition to market leadership, they have vertically integrated into the three areas that matter: lithium, retail, and charging network. These advantages are extremely tough for legacy OEMs (almost impossible) to overcome. Effectively, Tesla will be a Toyota on steroids for the next 10+ years from a market dominance, tech, and profitability perspective. I used to try not to laugh at Musk when he talked about 20M cars per year. I now pretty much believe him. BTW, I’m not a fan, but you have to give credit where deserved.

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