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TheSteelRider

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The numbers don't lie.

https://fordauthority.com/2023/11/ford-f-150-lightning-sales-numbers-figures-results-third-quarter-2023-q3/#:~:text=Ford F-150 Lightning Sales - Q3 2023 - United States,40 percent to 12,260 units.

Ford lightning is down 45% in Q3 2023 compared to Q3 2022. Demand dropped so much that Chevy is delaying the Silverado ramp up.

I just don't think we're there yet where EV makes sense for trucks (at least doing truck stuff like towing).

The CT is a different beast because it will sold to people that care out image, and not likely used for truck duty.
But, then there was a jump from the beginning of Q4 until now: https://insideevs.com/news/699231/ford-us-ev-sales-november-2023/

I'm sure we can all easily find data to backup our cognitive bias, though.
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Ghost Ryder

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But, then there was a jump from the beginning of Q4 until now: https://insideevs.com/news/699231/ford-us-ev-sales-november-2023/

I'm sure we can all easily find data to backup our cognitive bias, though.
You, my friend are cherry picking your data.

The industry is heading toward EVs. It's inevitable. But the adoption rate is much slower than predicted.

From your same article:


So far this year, Ford already delivered more than 20,000 Ford F-150 Lightning pickups, compared to over 15,000 in the whole of 2023.

On the other hand, considering how far the result is from the originally targeted production rate of 150,000 units per year (12,500 per month), Ford has still a lot to do.


The lightning only sold 5000 more unit this year than last. And that 15k sold last year was really only from June-Dec. So Ford is actually selling less per month average than the did last year when they were just starting production. Ford was expecting to sell 150k a year. They're at less than 15% of expectation. Can't sugarcoat that the Lightning is not doing so hot.

Again I point to GM who has put the Electric Silveratdo on hold. If there were huge demands for EV trucks, surely GM would want a piece of the pie.
 
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TheSteelRider

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You, my friend are cherry picking your data.

The industry is heading toward EVs. It's inevitable. But the adoption rate is much slower than predicted.

From your same article:


So far this year, Ford already delivered more than 20,000 Ford F-150 Lightning pickups, compared to over 15,000 in the whole of 2023.

On the other hand, considering how far the result is from the originally targeted production rate of 150,000 units per year (12,500 per month), Ford has still a lot to do.


The lightning only sold 5000 more unit this year than last. And that 15k sold last year was really only from June-Dec. So Ford is actually selling less per month average than the did last year when they were just starting production. Ford was expecting to sell 150k a year. They're at less than 15% of expectation. Can't sugarcoat that the Lightning is not doing so hot.

Again I point to GM who has put the Electric Silveratdo on hold. If there were huge demands for EV trucks, surely GM would want a piece of the pie.
Honestly not understanding the point unless maybe the point is, "Ford is not good at predicting volumes for new vehicle production". I lot of companies would kill for a 54% y/y growth rate in pretty much any industry. I'm not sure most sane people would call a 54% y/y growth rate "doom and gloom oh no nobody must want this thing" but then again we appear to live in an insane world.

By the way, I tend agree with this

I just don't think we're there yet where EV makes sense for trucks (at least doing truck stuff like towing).
Or, at least I would refine it to say "full size trucks". I'm baffled why automakers are not making mid- and small-sized BEV trucks.
 

Ghost Ryder

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Honestly not understanding the point unless maybe the point is, "Ford is not good at predicting volumes for new vehicle production". I lot of companies would kill for a 54% y/y growth rate in pretty much any industry. I'm not sure most sane people would call a 54% y/y growth rate "doom and gloom oh no nobody must want this thing" but then again we appear to live in an insane world.

By the way, I tend agree with this



Or, at least I would refine it to say "full size trucks". I'm baffled why automakers are not making mid- and small-sized BEV trucks.
Its not a 54% year or year growth. in 2022 Ford sold 15k lightning, and they were only produced from june to dec. So 6 months. Sold 15k in 6 months. This year, they sold 20k in 11 months. If you extrapolate that out, Ford would of sold less on a month to month basis this year compare to last.
 

ericNdfw

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Again I point to GM who has put the Electric Silveratdo on hold. If there were huge demands for EV trucks, surely GM would want a piece of the pie.
They actually have just delayed it; saying they've put it "on hold" sounds like they are contemplating not making it, which is not something they have said.
 


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They actually have just delayed it; saying they've put it "on hold" sounds like they are contemplating not making it, which is not something they have said.
Ok delay, why would they delay a product that is ready? Because the demand is just not there. And that's the whole point. They're also delaying the EV Equinox. They're also abandoning the predicted 400k/year sales target.
 

TheSteelRider

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Its not a 54% year or year growth. in 2022 Ford sold 15k lightning, and they were only produced from june to dec. So 6 months. Sold 15k in 6 months. This year, they sold 20k in 11 months. If you extrapolate that out, Ford would of sold less on a month to month basis this year compare to last.
Ok, you have convinced me. The entirety of the BEV industry is a hoax. Except of course the CT, and FSD. Those are real. I grovel at your feet. Long live Nostradamus!

Ford will go bankrupt, GM will go bankrupt. Everybody will go bankrupt. All exiting BEVs (except Teslas) will immediately and spontaneously combust.
 

Ghost Ryder

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Ok, you have convinced me. The entirety of the BEV industry is a hoax. Except of course the CT, and FSD. Those are real. I grovel at your feet. Long live Nostradamus!

Ford will go bankrupt, GM will go bankrupt. Everybody will go bankrupt. All exiting BEVs (except Teslas) will immediately and spontaneously combust.
Why are you taking so much offense. No one said the BEV industry is a hoax. If you actually read what I said and what the industry insiders are saying, it's that the EV adoption rate has not been as robust as projected. Doesn't mean that EV shares are not increasing, just that they are not meeting projections.

As far as CT goes, I think the initial demand will be high, but will fall flat quickly.
 

MacherAWD

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Why are you taking so much offense. No one said the BEV industry is a hoax. If you actually read what I said and what the industry insiders are saying, it's that the EV adoption rate has not been as robust as projected. Doesn't mean that EV shares are not increasing, just that they are not meeting projections.

As far as CT goes, I think the initial demand will be high, but will fall flat quickly.
I agree, I think YOY EV sales will only go up, just maybe slower, or faster at times. I also agree on the CT, excitement, then it will die off. I also agree with the poster above, an EV Maverick would sell like hotcakes, OEMs need to build what people want instead of reacting (oh people pay for expansive EVs, lets only build giant expensive ones...)
 

Ghost Ryder

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I agree, I think YOY EV sales will only go up, just maybe slower, or faster at times. I also agree on the CT, excitement, then it will die off. I also agree with the poster above, an EV Maverick would sell like hotcakes, OEMs need to build what people want instead of reacting (oh people pay for expansive EVs, lets only build giant expensive ones...)
The problem with EV maverick is that I don't think Ford can make a profitable EV at the price range yet.
 

MacherAWD

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The problem with EV maverick is that I don't think Ford can make a profitable EV at the price range yet.
Oh agreed also. The fact that Chevy was losing money on Bolts is very telling, even the small, no option EV, yes it could go 260 miles, but it was less than $30k and still losing money. I just mean people would want an EV Maverick since its more commuting, light moving use. Trying to make heavy duty trucks as EVs does not work yet.
 

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Ghost Ryder

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Looks like the only CyberWedgie people can buy right now is the $120,000 “Foundation Series”

Tesla starts selling fully-loaded Cybertruck ‘Foundation Series’ for $120,000

https://electrek.co/2023/12/06/tesla-cybertruck-foundation-series-fuly-loaded/
Yup, essentially "fully loaded" including FSD which is a 12K option? So for 8k you get moved to the front of the line and a few extra tidbits. This is only for people that had reservations already. And probably for early reservation holders at that.
 

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Ok delay, why would they delay a product that is ready?
I honestly think they are looking at Tesla and Rivian wondering how the hell they are out selling these big legacy Auto makers.

In my humble opinion, no one wants an EV version of an ice vehicle. Especially since we now know that Ford etc use ice components to cobble together an EV that can't get updated without the approval of 20 global companies.

The ground up approach looks to be the hot ticket. I think they are seeing the writing on the wall. That has nothing to do with EVs as a whole, it's just legacy Auto makers that thought they knew better than the startups and they're admitting defeat by delaying and reconsidering.
 

Ghost Ryder

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I honestly think they are looking at Tesla and Rivian wondering how the hell they are out selling these big legacy Auto makers.

In my humble opinion, no one wants an EV version of an ice vehicle. Especially since we now know that Ford etc use ice components to cobble together an EV that can't get updated without the approval of 20 global companies.

The ground up approach looks to be the hot ticket. I think they are seeing the writing on the wall. That has nothing to do with EVs as a whole, it's just legacy Auto makers that thought they knew better than the startups and they're admitting defeat by delaying and reconsidering.
It's all about vertical integration and complete control from the drafting stage to final sales and servicing. It's the only way to contain cost and be agile to market forces. That and avoiding the Union albatross. Going to be hard to for legacy OEM to compete against that headwind.
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