20-30 years for EV transition?

[Mach1E]

Compared to Gas, yeah, it's slower, but is a 15 min charge time to go 75 miles unreasonable? I don't think so, certainly if I've already traveled 100 miles or more. The issue is not purely the charge time, people stop on long trips for breaks/food/water/waste disposal etc.... This argument is tired. You don't need to make a bunch of lifestyle changes to accommodate a modern EV. There are a small percentage of people where a 250 mile range EV would be impractical from a pure range perspective. If you want to talk about urban home charging and apartments, that's a reasonable argument, but it's not about range or recharge times, it's about access.

The issue is, in my opinion, two fold:
Charging infrastructure. Not enough DC chargers in enough of the right places. Tesla has done a reasonable job with this, but had a 10 year head start.

Lack of education of the end user. These forum users all know how DC charging works, and how to best manage our charging. How many times have you been at a DC station where someone doesn't know to stop at 80%, or doesn't know that the cables the charger has only support 80kW even though the advertised rate is 150+kW? Tying into point one, gasoline infrastructure is highly regulated, all of the nozzles are the same size, flow rates are measured, etc... None of that exists in DC charging, its the wild west.

Electrify America has no real interest in reliable infrastructure. The way I see it, at some point, DC charging will have to get regulated and existing infrastructure converted to whatever that ends up being. Now that NACS is the defacto standard going forward, I'd like to see more Tesla charging infrastructure, they're doing a much better job of actually managing it in addition to building it.

Your arguments are fine, but it’s still a compromise.

Refueling speed is just one of the reasons batteries are a compromise.

The others are weight and cost (both initial and repair costs).

You claim the solution is more DC infrastructure (as many do). It think that is just a bandaid fix.

DC charging…….sucks. It’s way too expensive (both the infrastructure and to the drivers) and inconvenient. Also worse for your battery. It should be used only if you have no other choice as a last resort.

DC is definitely not the solution. Yes, it’s a necessary evil. Yes they can do better. But we need to figure out a real refueling solution, not just a bandaid fix.

The end goal with new technology should be BETTER, not just “it’s not that unreasonable/bad etc.”

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[dtbaker61]

That’s what the President/CEO of VW is predicting-
... He thinks the complete changeover to pure EVs will take 20-30 years.”

in a traditional market-driven transition maybe......

My prediction is that new ICE vehicle sales will be outlawed Legislatively before the market is 'comfortable' with BEV as soon as charging infrastructure is in place.

Yes there will be gas stations supporting 'used' ICE for 15-20 years after that, but then it will be hard to find gas/diesel.

 

[Gloff]

Your arguments are fine, but it’s still a compromise.

Refueling speed is just one of the reasons batteries are a compromise.

Sure it's a compromise, but so is visiting a gas station, is it not? I charge at work, my car gets preferential parking and charges when it would otherwise sit doing nothing. I don't need to go to the gas station at all, no detour, no side trip, no stopping.

The others are weight and cost (both initial and repair costs).

Weight does make a difference on our roads, but so does environmental damage from leaking fluids of all kinds on ICE cars. Sure, repair costs on a battery pack are higher, but batteries are warrantied for 100k miles nationally, more in certain areas. So your repair cost basis doesn't really even start until 100k!

You claim the solution is more DC infrastructure (as many do). It think that is just a bandaid fix.

DC charging…….sucks. It’s way too expensive (both the infrastructure and to the drivers) and inconvenient. Also worse for your battery. It should be used only if you have no other choice as a last resort.

Is it though? Depends where you get it, doesn't it? Here in the SF Bay Area the average rate of electricity is 35 cents/kWh. Right this very moment it's 46 cents/kWh at Tesla's closest Supercharger to where I am in Daly City, and it's peak time, that's the highest rate today, later in the evening it goes to 28 cents/kWh. So a full charge on a Mach E is $41.86 (in theory) to go 273 miles (averaging 3 miles/kWh). That same distance in a vehicle of similar size assuming 25 mpg, and $4.50/gallon, would be $49.14.

Your municipality is probably cheaper, meaning charge at home and DC when necessary, still cheaper than gas. If you want a tiny gas sipper, you're not buying a Mach E anyway, just go get a Prius. Most of us are choosing Mach E for more than just EV.

Long term studies on DC charging are coming out with information that it's not nearly as big of an effect on battery as previously though.

DC is definitely not the solution. Yes, it’s a necessary evil. Yes they can do better. But we need to figure out a real refueling solution, not just a bandaid fix.

The end goal with new technology should be BETTER, not just “it’s not that unreasonable/bad etc.”

Why even be on this forum? I'm not saying the goal isn't BETTER, we all want BETTER, have a vision for the future. We can't get to BETTER without the not that bad stage.

I'm sure horse owners in 1908 thought the Model T was impractical.

 

[Mach1E]

Sure it's a compromise, but so is visiting a gas station, is it not? I charge at work, my car gets preferential parking and charges when it would otherwise sit doing nothing. I don't need to go to the gas station at all, no detour, no side trip, no stopping.


Weight does make a difference on our roads, but so does environmental damage from leaking fluids of all kinds on ICE cars. Sure, repair costs on a battery pack are higher, but batteries are warrantied for 100k miles nationally, more in certain areas. So your repair cost basis doesn't really even start until 100k!



Is it though? Depends where you get it, doesn't it? Here in the SF Bay Area the average rate of electricity is 35 cents/kWh. Right this very moment it's 46 cents/kWh at Tesla's closest Supercharger to where I am in Daly City, and it's peak time, that's the highest rate today, later in the evening it goes to 28 cents/kWh. So a full charge on a Mach E is $41.86 (in theory) to go 273 miles (averaging 3 miles/kWh). That same distance in a vehicle of similar size assuming 25 mpg, and $4.50/gallon, would be $49.14.

Your municipality is probably cheaper, meaning charge at home and DC when necessary, still cheaper than gas. If you want a tiny gas sipper, you're not buying a Mach E anyway, just go get a Prius. Most of us are choosing Mach E for more than just EV.

Long term studies on DC charging are coming out with information that it's not nearly as big of an effect on battery as previously though.



Why even be on this forum? I'm not saying the goal isn't BETTER, we all want BETTER, have a vision for the future. We can't get to BETTER without the not that bad stage.

I'm sure horse owners in 1908 thought the Model T was impractical.

I guess I’m in the minority here, but I just don’t have a love affair with batteries as a technology. I really hope we come up with something better.

For now, they’re a niche use case and you have to be willing to live with the downsides.

I love my car, but only drive in town and have another gas car. Works great for us.

Kinda like how we have an electric weedeater and blower but a gas lawnmower.

 

[devmach-e]

Not to knock Hybrids, but they have to carry both technologies and have more complexity than ICE or EV. The transition to EV is happening now and I think VW is late to the game on Hybrids.

How long the transition takes is anyone's guess. Outside factors like oil prices, taxes, government policy, etc. will play a big part in how long it takes and it will be different in every country. All else equal, I believe there will be another step-up wave in a year or two as folks get more comfortable with their friend's EVs and EVs gain range and faster charging capabilities.

Toyota's hybrid system is dead simple. Most of the complexity of it is in the programming of how to blend the electric motors and the gas engine. The "transmission" is a planetary gearset no bigger than a small square kleenex box that ties together the two electric motors and the engine. And then a simple reduction gear to drive the wheels. Way less complicated than your traditional multi-speed transmissions. Plus no clutches, dogs, or extra gear ratios.

 

[devmach-e]

That’s what the President/CEO of VW is predicting-

https://www.motortrend.com/events/h...rce=braze&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=print

“VW does not offer hybrids in the U.S., but Di Si said they have the technology and are working to add them to the lineup. He sees hybrids as a great transition technology for the next 10-15 years, at a minimum, with pure EV sales growing but at a slower pace than previously forecast. He thinks the complete changeover to pure EVs will take 20-30 years.”

He's probably not wrong. In the US there's some 268M light duty cars and trucks on the road. Average age of a vehicle is 11 years. Some 16M to 17M new cars are sold in the US each year. If we were to buy nothing but EVs starting tomorrow, it would take 16 to 17 years to replace all those vehicles. And that's assuming that there's enough variety of models and price points to fulfill people's needs. If anything, I think he's a bit optimistic in how rapidly the transition will happen.

 

[Larry Paul]

Your arguments are fine, but it’s still a compromise.

Refueling speed is just one of the reasons batteries are a compromise.

The others are weight and cost (both initial and repair costs).

You claim the solution is more DC infrastructure (as many do). It think that is just a bandaid fix.

DC charging…….sucks. It’s way too expensive (both the infrastructure and to the drivers) and inconvenient. Also worse for your battery. It should be used only if you have no other choice as a last resort.

DC is definitely not the solution. Yes, it’s a necessary evil. Yes they can do better. But we need to figure out a real refueling solution, not just a bandaid fix.

The end goal with new technology should be BETTER, not just “it’s not that unreasonable/bad etc.”

I totally agree that we need a better DCFC infrastructure that just works with appropriate supply of them to make people comfortable, but the reality is for me at least- not required with a car that has a 250 mile range.

Sorry- on this one for what I do with a car-this is a feature and an advantage over a gas car. A gas car is a total compromise for what I do with my car 365 days a year. It is not a compromise to me - it is a benefit.

What I do on a daily basis is far superior plugging in at my home than several times a month going to a gas station that is not where I am. Getting a gas car for daily commuting would be a significant compromise (oh and oil changes, tune ups, transmission service etc). It may not be a battery forever...but I expect that an electric motor will be the only thing that turns the wheels of my cars for daily driving.

 

[Mach1E]

He's probably not wrong. In the US there's some 268M light duty cars and trucks on the road. Average age of a vehicle is 11 years. Some 16M to 17M new cars are sold in the US each year. If we were to buy nothing but EVs starting tomorrow, it would take 16 to 17 years to replace all those vehicles. And that's assuming that there's enough variety of models and price points to fulfill people's needs. If anything, I think he's a bit optimistic in how rapidly the transition will happen.

I’m guessing, but was thinking he was predicting 20-30 yrs before all new cars sold are EV.

For full adoption (let’s say 95% of the cars on the road being EV) may be decades after that for the reasons you listed.

 

[devmach-e]

The supposed hybrid queen was Toyota. Had they really been serious about that it would have been the standard on most of their models about 2015. I understand that they are making only a few thousand a year RAV4 Primes, which is really an outstanding vehicle. Hope I misread something.

They sold 26K RAV4 Primes in the US in 2023. Which is an increase over the 18.5K they did in 2022.

Over half of their sales in Europe are hybrids or plug-in hybrids now. In the US it was 29.2% for 2023. Two models, Sienna and Venza, are available only in hybrid trim. There's 12 other models available in hybrid trim, with another 10 on the Lexus side.

 

[Larry Paul]

I’m guessing, but was thinking he was predicting 20-30 yrs before all new cars sold are EV.

For full adoption (let’s say 95% of the cars on the road being EV) may be decades after that for the reasons you listed.

The bottom line is I think Rush may have just got this about right about driving a Red Barchetta at some point in the future.

Rush 2112, Red Barchetta

Lyrics

My uncle has a country place
That no one knows about
He says it used to be a farm
Before the Motor Law
And on Sundays I elude the eyes
And hop the Turbine Freight
To far outside the Wire
Where my white-haired uncle waits
Jump to the ground
As the Turbo slows to cross the borderline
Run like the wind
As excitement shivers up and down my spine
Down in his barn
My uncle preserved for me an old machine
For fifty odd years
To keep it as new has been his dearest dream
I strip away the old debris
That hides a shining car
A brilliant red Barchetta
From a better vanished time
I fire up the willing engine
Responding with a roar
Tires spitting gravel
I commit my weekly crime
Wind
In my hair
Shifting and drifting
Mechanical music
Adrenaline surge
Well-weathered leather
Hot metal and oil
The scented country air
Sunlight on chrome
The blur of the landscape
Every nerve aware
Suddenly ahead of me
Across the mountainside
A gleaming alloy air car
Shoots towards me, two lanes wide
I spin around with shrieking tires
To run the deadly race
Go screaming through the valley
As another joins the chase
Drive like the wind
Straining the limits of machine and man
Laughing out loud with fear and hope
I've got a desperate plan
At the one-lane bridge
I leave the giants stranded at the riverside
Race back to the farm
To dream with my uncle at the fireside

 

[devmach-e]

I suggest get rid of the planetary gearset all together and market a pure serial hybrid. No PHEV, just a high-effeciency ICE driving a generator with a small EV battery for braking load shed and peak power needs.

That's called the BMW i3.

 

[devmach-e]

I’m guessing, but was thinking he was predicting 20-30 yrs before all new cars sold are EV.

For full adoption (let’s say 95% of the cars on the road being EV) may be decades after that for the reasons you listed.

Oh, yeah, I think it's going to be 40 or 50 years before most everything is electric. Or at least not a traditional ICE. This is a marathon, not a 1600-yard dash.

 

[bp99]

Compared to Gas, yeah, it's slower, but is a 15 min charge time to go 75 miles unreasonable? I don't think so, certainly if I've already traveled 100 miles or more.

Considering my experience with ICE is stopping for 10 minutes to go 600 miles, yes, that is very unreasonable. It's over an additional 100 minutes of stopping to go 600 miles. Your 75 mile example does seem extremely low. And that's only if I'm also driving slower to get better range in the BEV. I pack a cooler and snacks. I don't stop for food. I stop for fuel and that's it. My thought for long road trips is that the quicker I get there, the less fatigued I am and the safer I am. Unless I take a nap at a fuel stop, stretching my legs for 30 minutes does not refresh me.

The issue is not purely the charge time, people stop on long trips for breaks/food/water/waste disposal etc.... This argument is tired. You don't need to make a bunch of lifestyle changes to accommodate a modern EV.

What bugs me is when people project their own habits and lifestyle and can't understand that not everyone is just like them. Or that not everyone should just adapt and be just like them. All of us have different ways of doing things. We have different requirements.

300 mile range was my minimum requirement. I've road tripped in both my MME and my wife's MY. It greatly impacts how we travel. I took one trip in the MME that used to take me under 10 hours. It took nearly 14. That is not a tired argument about a lifestyle change. That's a 40% increase in travel time. Part of that was the need to take a less direct route due to charging infrastructure. Another part was needing to slow down to reduce stops (and in some cases, just to make it between chargers). But a very big part was more stops and longer stops. Traveling in the MY isn't as bad as the MME. It seems to do better mileage at highway speeds and charging tends to be faster.

Lack of education of the end user. These forum users all know how DC charging works, and how to best manage our charging. How many times have you been at a DC station where someone doesn't know to stop at 80%, or doesn't know that the cables the charger has only support 80kW even though the advertised rate is 150+kW?

People should not need to know any of this. It needs to be, stop, plugin, then leave when it's time (the car navigation telling you when to leave is a big help in this regard). But the 80% rule is also not hard and true depending on where the next charger is. If your destination is before the next charger (or just not in the direction of one) and you need to get back to this same charger again on your return trip, etc, you very well might need to go well past 80% and hit the dreaded slow part of the curve.

Electrify America has no real interest in reliable infrastructure. The way I see it, at some point, DC charging will have to get regulated and existing infrastructure converted to whatever that ends up being. Now that NACS is the defacto standard going forward, I'd like to see more Tesla charging infrastructure, they're doing a much better job of actually managing it in addition to building it.

EA is not overly interested because there's no money in fast charging. With the current volume, there's no money to be made (if a single 350kw charger is in use 24x7x365 it would take about 100 days just to pay for the cost of that charger without considering overhead like electricity, maintenance, land cost, etc and no chargers are in use anywhere near that). That's why the rates to charge are so high compared to electric rates. To even try to break even, they have to jack up the margin. So long as the average charge is 15-25 minutes, volume per charger will never be sufficient for profit. Gas stations barely make money on gas and they have vastly higher volume. They depend on convenience store revenue. But that's also a fast turn/high volume business as well (just with way better margins). People spend no more than 5 minutes inside so you need quick turn over of customers at the pump/charger to bring more customers in to the store.

Adding additional government regulation will just make things worse. It always makes doing business more expensive. In a business that is struggling to find a profitable business model, that will just deter investment.

Tesla has a unique interest in charging - it's been a necessity to sell cars. And Musk also has an honest goal of making all cars on the road BEVs. That's their mission and charging is required for that. They don't need it to be profitable. They make money from selling cars. They spend money on charging infrastructure rather than advertising as other automakers do. But they were also motivated to make charging deployments cost efficient. They also designed their chargers to be simple and reliable. And here comes government regulations...they're going to be required to add complexity with payment terminals and other addons that they had removed to both decrease cost and increase reliability. Getting other automakers in the SuperCharger network is more about the electrification goal, not profit. Although the higher volume should help keep the SuperCharger network from being a loss on the balance sheet.

Energy density needs to vastly increase and fueling time needs to decrease. There will be limits to fueling time for electric. The charging cable can only get so big and be cooled so much. The distribution of power to charging stations can only be so much and if 30 cars need to charge, it has to be split between them. Solid state will only do so much to help

People that can charge at home and have typical daily commutes are good candidates for BEVs. But people also buy cars to meet all their needs. If they take several road trips a year, they need a car that can do that. If they're outdoors people and take frequent day trips out to the wilderness every weekend, they need a car that can do that. Commuting/errands is only one part of people's needs. Telling people to rent a different car for their other use cases is not a valid retort. Telling people to just change their lifestyle is bs. Telling people that no one needs something that does something you don't personally have a need for is just typical being stuck in your own echo chamber.

 

[DeluxeStang]

Not to knock Hybrids, but they have to carry both technologies and have more complexity than ICE or EV.

Hybrids tend to be the most reliable of the three major powertrain technologies. In some respects, they're more complex, but they also lack the major components that tend to wear out the earliest on ICE only, like starters and alternators, can't break a part you don't have.

Additional, everything has redundant systems, and neither the electric or ICE components are overly strained as they're both constantly switching off with each other, neither system has to rely purely on itself to get you down the road. There's no starter from a gas only car, and no 30k massive battery pack that you have to worry about with EVs long term.

Hybrids, at least at this stage, are what you want if you basically want a vehicle that lasts forever. Ford's 2.5 hybrid is one of the most reliable powertrains on the market.

 

[Larry Paul]

While I don’t share the need for this personally…I also know for some people it is a must have - and is one of the reasons that they don’t jump in.

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/02/1...ing-to-chase-the-electric-vehicle-blues-away/

As I have stated in the thread. I don’t need to rely on any public charging with a car that has a 250 mile range, however, I also do know that for some people it is critical requirement.

Personally I think the best answer in 2024 is for people that need a longer range occasionally is a serial plug in that has 80-100 miles of range on battery power but can then drive across the country like any other gas powered car. There are none of them on the market today, but I think that would be the best of all worlds for people who mostly could use an EV but occasionally need a road trip car.

I think that it is clear that in 2024 a BEV will Not work for everyone in all circumstances. I have also stated that many households only need one car to do the long range driving and one of the vehicles can be a BEV. I also think that it is unlikely that both vehicles are needed for long distance driving at the same time, but everyone’s circumstances are different.

I do think that most households can have one BEV today- but also know there are many reasons that people get what they get.

As a lifelong “car guy” I have just found the overall daily driving experience of an EV is just better for daily use transportation. Fun to drive, quiet and quick, as well as efficient and better for the environment too.

I still have some toys…but for daily use-I won’t ever go backwards.

my 2¢.

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