Elon's Prediction

[DevSecOps]

corradoborg's point is that you're downplaying the luck factor quite badly.

No, what it comes down to is ones definition of luck. Luck is such a broad word that it can be used for anything. I could say we are lucky to have been born, therefore all of us are inherently lucky. I mean, there's no end to it's use. I completely understand how it's being applied by some in this thread, I just vehemently disagree and think that particular usage is extremely political in nature, which I'm trying to avoid.

The DACA kid is lucky to have been smuggled here, lucky to have been part of DACA, lucky to have had enough food to not starve to death. That's not the definition of luck that I consider to be part of success. The challenges that we face can help us be better people. There's two paths to every challenge, woe-is-me or hell-nah. Hell-nah is not luck, that's never giving up. I don't see them as equals.

I gave the definition from the dictionary - "success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions." While someone might have met me at a convention by chance, they knowingly attended, approached me, initiated conversation and asked for help by their own actions. Seeking out a better life is not "chance". Luck would be walking down the street and finding 1 million dollars while your intent was to go to the grocery store. A person digging for gold, with the intent of finding gold and therefore finds gold did it by devotion, not chance or luck. They might not find gold in that spot, but if they keep looking (devotion) I'm sure they will.

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[dbsb3233]

From what I've read, maybe from around the 1940's up until the 1960's, maybe the 1970's, there was a mainstream (but perhaps not majority) view that corporations could be forces of good in society. Recognizing that a strong middle class is needed for a strong nation and national economy, workers were treated well and paid well. Those were the days you heard about companies being loyal to their people, and people being loyal to their companies. Under that view, we should aspire to have larger, profitable companies doing more to share their wealth with their workers, enriching society as a whole in the process.

A few things there. First, there was much less competition (especially globally) back then. Less flexibility. Career jobs were more common. It's a much more competitive world now with global competition, the gig econony, the internet/information age, remote work, etc.

Second, something else was going on in the late 60s and 70s as well... the societal change of women wanting their own careers (the Women's Lib movement). Suddenly way more people were being added to the supply side of the labor equation. Higher supply vs demand = downward price (wage) pressure. It meant a shift toward more two-income households being common. The market adjusted to that new paradigm. Housing priced in buying power from two incomes instead of just one. The paradigm was no longer the 1950s single earner supporting the household with the other spouse staying home.

 

[Ghost Ryder]

I say this lovingly, but Elon Musk has predicted a lot of things and I'm not sure any of them have come true.

Let's see...
He predicted that online payment would be big. (PayPal)
He predicted that there would be a need for the privatization of space (SpaceX)
he predicted that EVs would be feasible and that people would want to drive them (Tesla)


Man, I wish I could be as wrong as he is.


Love him or hate him, but give the man his due.

 

[Mach1E]

Seems like this thread has completely lost focus.

No clue how the union workers seem have become the “poster children” for the unlucky, downtrodden, the middle class and/or marginalized groups.

These are people with 6 figure compensation plans, pensions (who has those anymore??) and who are already getting paid well above market value.

And they’re asking for a 40% pay raise PLUS and additional 10 1/2 weeks of paid vacation per year.

Seems quite a few people are projecting emotions and beliefs into something that is really not being represented here.

 

[Mach1E]

Let's see...
He predicted that online payment would be big. (PayPal)
He predicted that there would be a need for the privatization of space (SpaceX)
he predicted that EVs would be feasible and that people would want to drive them (Tesla)


Man, I wish I could be as wrong as he is.


Love him or hate him, but give the man his due.

Lol, those aren’t predictions, they’re self-fulfilling prophecies. He made those things happen.

“I predict I will eat eggs for breakfast tomorrow.” ?

 

[Ghost Ryder]

Yes, a lot of luck was involved. Congratulations to you and your grandfather. I'm not saying both of you didn't put in a lot of hard work. But anecdotes are not evidence that this is possible for everyone. Self-worth, drive, and dedication don't pay the bills. There a millions of people throughout history who had all of those things in huge amounts, who still starved or froze to death due solely to a lack of financial success. Luck is literally the MAIN determinant of success.

This attitude, that Luck is the main determination of success is what keeps people down. This is why so many people remain poor for generations and can never improve, while a lot of immigrants are successful.

Successful people make their own luck.

 

[Ghost Ryder]

Lol, those aren’t predictions, they’re self-fulfilling prophecies. He made those things happen.

“I predict I will eat eggs for breakfast tomorrow.” ?

Predictions are foreseeing the future. Whether you had a hand in it or not is irreverent.

 

[Mach1E]

This attitude, that Luck is the main determination of success is what keeps people down. This is why so many people remain poor for generations and can never improve, while a lot of immigrants are successful.

Successful people make their own luck.

For sure luck makes a HUGE difference.

But it’s what’s considered “sunk cost.” You take what luck you got, THEN you determine success based on your actions.

Born in the USA? Instant luck. Why? Opportunity. Our “minimum wage” is already has you richer than half the planet.

Good genes? Health, intelligence, skills, looks. Super lucky!

But I’ve heard it said:
Effort beats skill (luck) any day. But when skill shows effort…… they’re unstoppable.

These things (effort and luck) aren’t mutually exclusive though. No point arguing which matters more.

 

[Mach1E]

Predictions are foreseeing the future. Whether you had a hand in it or not is irreverent.

I think you meant irrelevant. ?

But it isn’t. No one should be impressed if I predict my own behavior.

 

[DevSecOps]

Seems like this thread has completely lost focus.

Did it ever have focus?

Also, can I come over for eggs in the morning?

 

[MACH-E Mountain Way]

And that is not unique to the auto industry. Fast food, retailers are replacing humans with apps and self checkout.

It's an interesting world.

I haven't scrolled through this entire thread and am not convinced it's worth my time to do so but I have a question for all of the folks who talk about (and seem to cheer) that all of these human workers will be replaced by robots in the near future...

In this capitalist utopia that you envision where the workers are a mere obstacle in the never ending thirst for more profit, who exactly is buying all of this Robot made shit? Last I checked Robots don't buy cars, hamburgers, or blue jeans and certainly don't need health care or medications per se.

It's called UBI people. Look into it. Robots are coming but I for one am not cheering for that side. You do you though, boo.

 

[DevSecOps]

I haven't scrolled through this entire thread and am not convinced it's worth my time to do so but I have a question for all of the folks who talk about (and seem to cheer) that all of these human workers will be replaced by robots in the near future...

In this capitalist utopia that you envision where the workers are a mere obstacle in the never ending thirst for more profit, who exactly is buying all of this Robot made shit? Last I checked Robots don't buy cars, hamburgers, or blue jeans and certainly don't need health care or medications per se.

It's called UBI people. Look into it. Robots are coming but I for one am not cheering for that side. You do you though, boo.

I don't think I've seen a single post where people are championing robots....

When American workers demand more pay to the point where foreign made products are 2x cheaper and companies go out of business they often resort to outsourcing or robots to do the work. UAW workers currently get $33 an hour with an approximate $70 total package per hour, which is many multiples greater than the average salary in those states. It's gotten to the point where 1 million robots are now working in auto factories. I've said 2 times in this thread, no CEO wants to replace humans with robots. But if McDonalds pays $100/hr while burger king across the road pays $15/hr, which business will sell more burgers? I guarantee you McDonalds will either go bankrupt and close or employ robots who don't cost $100/hr in order to compete.

 

[Phrozen]

Funny... when a Ford design or business decision is unpopular, Jim Farley is a worthless hack. But when UAW goes on strike and asks for a wage scale commensurate with their work and the growth in executive pay, all of a sudden Mr. Farley is the most valuable and hardest working man in the company.

I would happily pay a few more bucks for my next car knowing that the workers who built it were well-paid for their efforts and had mutual respect with the company. There was this guy named Henry Ford who had a similar perspective.

 

[Ghost Ryder]

I think you meant irrelevant. ?

But it isn’t. No one should be impressed if I predict my own behavior.

Damn public school education.....

 

[Ghost Ryder]

What I mean is that he foresaw a need for those things and made it happen. He could have been wrong in his prediction that there would be a need for online payment and PayPal would have been a failure. The jury is still out for FSD and Robotaxi.

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