Mach-E resale value

[dbsb3233]

The question still stands, "How will the 2021 Mach-E's range and charging speed compare against rivals in 2024?"

I think the answer will drive the resale value.

Or even against the 2024 Mach-E.

I'm guessing 3 years probably won't produce dramatic battery improvement in production vehicles yet. There tends to be a multi-year lag between lab success and mass production at a good price point, and we haven't even heard of dramatic lab success yet. Still more like "encouraging, but not there yet" results.

I'd expect gradual improvement for maybe the next 3-5 years. Then who knows.

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[Shayne]

We keep our cars till near the end of their life anyway so resale value is a non-issue for me. But yes, since batteries are expected to get better and better through the decade, I do expect resale value to decline more than normal. A 2025 model may get 50% more range and charge 2x as fast. Hard to compete with that.

Yes but by than it will at least be better than an ICE. It will do fine for us and picking stuff up for 10 to 15 I believe. Buy and die (when maintenance is on the horizon).

 

[dbsb3233]

Yes but by than it will at least be better than an ICE. It will do fine for us and picking stuff up for 10 to 15 I believe. Buy and die (when maintenance is on the horizon).

That's why we'll likely keep it 10-15 years, along with our Escape to pair with it.

Whether it's better than ICE still depends on each buyer's situation. For some purposes, yes; for other purposes, no.

 

[ARK]

I think to an extent, even if battery tech ends up improving surprisingly fast over the next few years, the CCS charging network will also certainly be improving. If there are 150 kW CCS chargers everywhere in 2025, it will matter less if BEVs are averaging as 500 mile range cars by then, because we can easily find places to fast charge our 200-300 mile range MMEs.

For example, my 2006 Mustang GT supposedly gets 288 miles to a tank, but the way I (and I think most people with this car) drive it, it is more like 225 miles (15 miles per gallon with a 15 gallon tank). But aside from the cost of being a gas guzzler, I don’t think this limited range impacts resale value much if at all because filling gas is so easy. To the extent people can find fast chargers everywhere by the middle of the decade without having to plan out the trip or potentially wait in a long line on holiday weekends on popular routes, range will (or at least should) be less of consideration than it is today. Still important because 150 kW fast charging is still much slower than filling gas, but not as much of an issue as it is now if you can mindlessly leave your house on trips and not have to carefully think about your route.

And to the extent an over-the-air software update can lift the charging speed cap to 200 kW, 250 kW, or more, for example if Ford sees the batteries are holding up well over fast charging, than all the better from this perspective - range will be even less of an issue.

 

[dbsb3233]

And to the extent an over-the-air software update can lift the charging speed cap to 200 kW, 250 kW, or more, for example if Ford sees the batteries are holding up well over fast charging, than all the better from this perspective - range will be even less of an issue.

That's a key. Living with frequent road trip charging (twice as often and half the distance of gas refuels) would be more palatable if they could cut the charging time in half.

But even if they can't and new BEVs in 2025 have more range and half the charge time, the MME will make for a good 2nd car to one of the new BEVs. Most MMEs today are likely going into 2-car households anyway (with the ICE as the road-tripper).

 

[ClaudeMach-E]

The question still stands, "How will the 2021 Mach-E's range and charging speed compare against rivals in 2024?"

I think the answer will drive the resale value.

My dealer had already giving me the retail value after a 4 year lease, and yes it is under 50% of the original value, so if you like the car has I think I will, then the buy back is not so bad if you want to keep it for many years.

 

[Billyk24]

Or even against the 2024 Mach-E.

I'm guessing 3 years probably won't produce dramatic battery improvement in production vehicles yet. There tends to be a multi-year lag between lab success and mass production at a good price point, and we haven't even heard of dramatic lab success yet. Still more like "encouraging, but not there yet" results.

I'd expect gradual improvement for maybe the next 3-5 years. Then who knows.

Here is my take: solid state electric car batteries arrive in 2024. Your 300 mile range MME becomes 475 with the new more energy dense battery pack. Your 10-80% SOC charging experience at 45 minutes becomes just under 15 minutes. This is all being stated by QuantumScape (QS) which Bill Gates has an investment in and the company recently raised 1 billion in investments . QS is going to deliver these batteries for VW starting in 2024. These solid state batteries are designed in a pouch, smaller than the current lithium-ion pouches meaning additional pouches can be fitted into the existing battery pack hardware. Links: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/04/us-battery-builder-quantumscape-raises-1-billion/ https://www.quantumscape.com/

EV autos are undergoing remarkable advances. The MME of 2021 could appear "dated" in 2025 if the prediction of solid state batteries in EV is correct. Resale values dropping 50% in four years is likely accurate with this type of advancement.

 

[SD_Solar]

One big factor in driving the resale value of the Mach-E up in 2024 is how very few will be available on the used car market. Remember total 2020 – 2021 NA sales are only 20,000 – about 4,000 GT’s and of those only a few thousand will be coming off the 3 year option plan or 3 year financing.

Most NA Ford dealers will only have 1 or 2 used Mach-E’s to sell in all of 2024.

 

[Billyk24]

One big factor in driving the resale value of the Mach-E up in 2024 is how very few will be available on the used car market. Remember total 2020 – 2021 NA sales are only 20,000 – about 4,000 GT’s and of those only a few thousand will be coming off the 3 year option plan or 3 year financing.

Most NA Ford dealers will only have 1 or 2 used Mach-E’s to sell in all of 2024.

Demand for the MME will also determine its value. We don't know the exact specifications of other EV's that will be on the market at this time frame.

 

[GoGoGadgetMachE]

The bottom line is that, like any brand new model from any manufacturer, the resale value (and residual value) are guesses at this point.

What if Ford decides this was all a failure, and kills the Mach-E in 2023? What if aliens show up tomorrow? What if Tesla starts making cars that aren't quality shitshows? What if the ID.6 is $20K and gets 500 miles of range? What if an EV Mustang coupe is announced in 2022? What if Tesla announces a new Roadster during "Battery Day" and it does 0-60 in 2.8s and ships in January?

We just don't know. Nobody knows.

 

[dbsb3233]

Here is my take: solid state electric car batteries arrive in 2024. Your 300 mile range MME becomes 475 with the new more energy dense battery pack. Your 10-80% SOC charging experience at 45 minutes becomes just under 15 minutes. This is all being stated by QuantumScape (QS) which Bill Gates has an investment in and the company recently raised 1 billion in investments . QS is going to deliver these batteries for VW starting in 2024. These solid state batteries are designed in a pouch, smaller than the current lithium-ion pouches meaning additional pouches can be fitted into the existing battery pack hardware. Links: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/04/us-battery-builder-quantumscape-raises-1-billion/ https://www.quantumscape.com/

EV autos are undergoing remarkable advances. The MME of 2021 could appear "dated" in 2025 if the prediction of solid state batteries in EV is correct. Resale values dropping 50% in four years is likely accurate with this type of advancement.

Agree with your conclusion IF your premise proves true (that dramatically better solid state batteries are perfected and are being mass produced at competitive prices by then). Don't think I'd put my money on 2024 for that, but it's possible.

It would sure be a game-changer if it does though. Double the range and half the charge speed (-ish) would be a quantum leap.

 

[Blinkin]

I think to an extent, even if battery tech ends up improving surprisingly fast over the next few years, the CCS charging network will also certainly be improving. If there are 150 kW CCS chargers everywhere in 2025, it will matter less if BEVs are averaging as 500 mile range cars by then, because we can easily find places to fast charge our 200-300 mile range MMEs.

For example, my 2006 Mustang GT supposedly gets 288 miles to a tank, but the way I (and I think most people with this car) drive it, it is more like 225 miles (15 miles per gallon with a 15 gallon tank). But aside from the cost of being a gas guzzler, I don’t think this limited range impacts resale value much if at all because filling gas is so easy. To the extent people can find fast chargers everywhere by the middle of the decade without having to plan out the trip or potentially wait in a long line on holiday weekends on popular routes, range will (or at least should) be less of consideration than it is today. Still important because 150 kW fast charging is still much slower than filling gas, but not as much of an issue as it is now if you can mindlessly leave your house on trips and not have to carefully think about your route.

And to the extent an over-the-air software update can lift the charging speed cap to 200 kW, 250 kW, or more, for example if Ford sees the batteries are holding up well over fast charging, than all the better from this perspective - range will be even less of an issue.

Totally agree. I think EV cost could come down because battery packs will be able to shrink. If DC fast chargers are half as abundant as gas stations, a 150 mile EV range will be plenty usable if long distance road trips aren't too frequent.

 

[ClaudeMach-E]

Agree with your conclusion IF your premise proves true (that dramatically better solid state batteries are perfected and are being mass produced at competitive prices by then). Don't think I'd put my money on 2024 for that, but it's possible.

It would sure be a game-changer if it does though. Double the range and half the charge speed (-ish) would be a quantum leap.

Here's an article stating that Merceces Benz is ready with Solid State battery has they are commercializing a city bus with it. It doesn't seem the ultimate Solid State battery yet but it just proves how fast the technology can develop.

https://www.autoblog.com/2020/09/15/mercedes-benz-solid-state-battery-tech-bus/

 

[Popeye]

Here is my take: solid state electric car batteries arrive in 2024. Your 300 mile range MME becomes 475 with the new more energy dense battery pack. Your 10-80% SOC charging experience at 45 minutes becomes just under 15 minutes. This is all being stated by QuantumScape (QS) which Bill Gates has an investment in and the company recently raised 1 billion in investments . QS is going to deliver these batteries for VW starting in 2024. These solid state batteries are designed in a pouch, smaller than the current lithium-ion pouches meaning additional pouches can be fitted into the existing battery pack hardware. Links: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/09/04/us-battery-builder-quantumscape-raises-1-billion/ https://www.quantumscape.com/

EV autos are undergoing remarkable advances. The MME of 2021 could appear "dated" in 2025 if the prediction of solid state batteries in EV is correct. Resale values dropping 50% in four years is likely accurate with this type of advancement.

If I am not mistaken, last year Ford talked about having to revamp a vehicle every 3-5 years to keep it fresh. Prior was 5 years. Why I bring that up, is that I follow the news on SolidPower. It’s the solid state battery company Ford has invested in. They are looking to start producing smaller ASSB’s with smaller form factors next year. They are working larger cells which follow the current pouch form specs for automotive purposes. Because of the usage and safety demands of the an automotive battery, they expect be able to reliable produce ASSB pouches for automotive purposes in the mid-2020’s.

I would guess this would align with when Ford is expecting to have the MME redesigned. In fact earlier this year SolidPower sent out sample cells to its automotive partners for testing and evaluation. So resale values based upon battery, it might be fair to say would not be as effected by ASSB’s as much as a redesigned model would be anyways by that time.

Keep in mind this coming from a guy who is driving a 2004 Jeep Wrangler with 210k miles on it. Do resale valuereally means nothing to me, when I buy my MME.

 

[timbop]

Availability of far better batteries in 2025 does not automagically replace the ones in your existing 2021 model. Even if you are willing to spend $10k or more they may not be compatible. The newer batteries may require a completely different BMS, thicker or wider bus cabling, etc etc.

If you want to go farther, recharge faster, or in general have to worry less about practicality of longer drives or dirves to more remote locales, you will care about the resale value.

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