Production runs & line output guesstimates

SnBGC

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How many completed orders are there... that’s the million dollar question. Ford is not saying.
Is LG Chem the battery supplier for MME? What we need is some idea of how many KW they have on hand in Mexico and how many are on order and what the order frequency is. That would give us a pretty darn good idea of how many vehicles they plan to produce in a given time frame. I am guessing that Ford is assembling the battery pack them selves vs fully assembled 75kw and 99kw packs but not really sure about that.

Anyone know anybody in Ford's Inventory and procurement department?

Otherwise.....we wait until Aug 20th when production scheduling begins and we see how many of the 200 on the Roll Call list get some sort of notification that their car has been scheduled. We can build a pretty good picture once that info is shared.
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ChasingCoral

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Is LG Chem the battery supplier for MME? What we need is some idea of how many KW they have on hand in Mexico and how many are on order and what the order frequency is. That would give us a pretty darn good idea of how many vehicles they plan to produce in a given time frame. I am guessing that Ford is assembling the battery pack them selves vs fully assembled 75kw and 99kw packs but not really sure about that.

Anyone know anybody in Ford's Inventory and procurement department?

Otherwise.....we wait until Aug 20th when production scheduling begins and we see how many of the 200 on the Roll Call list get some sort of notification that their car has been scheduled. We can build a pretty good picture once that info is shared.
Is this like the trick to counting cars on a lot is to count the tires and divide by 4?

Yes, the batteries are coming from LG Chem in Poland and we have been told they have a contract for LG to guarantee batteries for 50,000 cars. We don't know if the packs are shipped to Cuautitlan as modules or intact packs.

I expect we'll start getting a better estimate once more information comes in but it still seems to be tricking in, leaving us to guess at the rest.
 

portlandg

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That was my guess as well but the call to dealers to order FCTP demos clearly shows the Cuautitlan plant won't start producing those demo units until mid-November.
Is this like the trick to counting cars on a lot is to count the tires and divide by 4?

Yes, the batteries are coming from LG Chem in Poland and we have been told they have a contract for LG to guarantee batteries for 50,000 cars. We don't know if the packs are shipped to Cuautitlan as modules or intact packs.

I expect we'll start getting a better estimate once more information comes in but it still seems to be tricking in, leaving us to guess at the rest.
I seem to recall in the early days after launch somewhere in an interview with a Ford team member that they were buying individual modules and assembling the packs themselves.
 
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ChasingCoral

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OK, quick update as @trutolife27's engineer friend provided the critical information my source didn't -- a better estimate of production rate. That estimate has come in two forms: the expected line throughput per shift and day (128, 256), and a rough estimate of more than 10,000 by the end of the year (which is conservative relative to the daily rate).

That brings us to more accurate estimates based on these:
Ford Mustang Mach-E Production runs & line output guesstimates 1596078646274


Following @portlandg's suggestion they may be filling a Roll-on Roll-off freighter for the EU/UK delivery, about 8,000 cars, I had used that in v2 of my estimate.

V3b tries that and I think fails:

Ford Mustang Mach-E Production runs & line output guesstimates 1596078788221


The problem here is we now know they will allow about 2,000 FCTP orders that will be in this first run and delivered in December. The new rate estimates only 12,288 before the end of the year (or even less, 10,000 to be conservative). Sending a full RORO for EU/UK deliveries in early 2021 leaves only 4,200 for NA, half would be FCTP and at least a quarter FEs. That means only about 1,000 customer Premiums. Sorry chaps, I don't see a RORO full of Mach Es crossing the pond that soon. They'll probably only be part of the shipment, or a smaller ship.

Instead, my v3a assumes an equal split between EU/UK and NA. While they want to get lots of vehicles into the US market, EU/UK is 60% of the Mach Es in Ford's first year plan., so let's assume an even split for now.

That leaves us with
Ford Mustang Mach-E Production runs & line output guesstimates 1596079183423


Even with that, only about 3,000 Premium reservations converted to orders this month are likely to be delivered before the end of the year.

Still lots of assumptions and unknowns, but this is my best guess for now.

If we assume the 2 weeks rail delivery discussed elsewhere, most of the first run will arrive in time to fill some very large Christmas stockings with the rest of Run 1 arriving by Three Kings Day ?.

First Editions may even arrive by Thanksgiving ???.
 

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Ford's Q2 earnings call is tomorrow at 5:00pm EDT. I'll be interested to see if they have any tidbits or announcements about timing of the Mach E in that call. In what I'm sure is going to be an overall poor quarter due to COVID, they'll want to throw as much good news in there as possible.
 


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Instead, my Even with that, only about 3,000 Premium reservations converted to orders this month are likely to be delivered before the end of the year.

Still lots of assumptions and unknowns, but this is my best guess for now.

If we assume the 2 weeks rail delivery discussed elsewhere, most of the first run will arrive in time to fill some very large Christmas stockings with the rest of Run 1 arriving by Three Kings Day ?.

First Editions may even arrive by Thanksgiving ???.
Ford is not in an enviable position with this COVID-19 addled launch. If those numbers are accurate, or even in the ball park, we could have people who converted on opening day or so, that won’t get delivery until close to Easter 2021. Or after even.

Those would be the folks with higher reservation numbers that converted early (opening weekend) and under this scenario would necessarily fall into run 2. And that could push them further back behind those who convert reservations in late 2020 but have earlier reservation numbers.

Worst case scenario? 10 months at the outside? That’ll cost a fair number of orders imo. If I was still waiting on my MME on Easter Sunday, I’d be out.
 

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Those would be the folks with higher reservation numbers that converted early (opening weekend) and under this scenario would necessarily fall into run 2. And that could push them further back behind those who convert reservations in late 2020 but have earlier reservation numbers.
That's because reservation order means something, as it should. When you converted the reservation-to-order shouldn't change your reservation priority, unless you choose to wait so long to convert that you missed your window. Then it's the customer's fault for waiting too long.

Converting to order on June 23rd (opening weekend) shouldn't mean jumping ahead of earlier reservations, as long as those reservations converted in the ample time allotted (August or so).
 

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That's because reservation order means something, as it should. When you converted the reservation-to-order shouldn't change your reservation priority, unless you choose to wait so long to convert that you missed your window. Then it's the customer's fault for waiting too long.

Converting to order on June 23rd (opening weekend) shouldn't mean jumping ahead of earlier reservations, as long as those reservations converted in the ample time allotted (August or so).
You're misunderstanding. I’m referring to folks who make the August cutoff but because of the limitations on run 1 will not have their vehicle built in run 1. In particular the Premium level builds in run 1 would be most affected.

So put yourself in someone with an order conversion on June 26 with say a 30,000 reservation number. Moves to run 2 as not enough can be built in run 1. That‘s fine and quite understandable. Now, someone who’s been sitting on on their reservation until very late in the year (or whenever the run 2 cutoff date is) converts their 10,000 number Rez into an order. That would push back the early order person yet further.

That would reward delaying ordering and punish early orders. I understand how the reservation system works and generally agree with it. But in the scenario laid out above, there’s little likelihood everyone who’s already converted will receive a vehicle in run 1. And that pushes them further back.

Personally, if I had made the order in June and saw people converting after Christmas getting delivery before me? I’d walk.
 

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You're misunderstanding. I’m referring to folks who make the August cutoff but because of the limitations on run 1 will not have their vehicle built in run 1. In particular the Premium level builds in run 1 would be most affected.
But the August cutoff applies only to FE reservation, no? In which case they're getting delivery anyway. For everyone else, date of conversion shouldn't affect place in line, right?
 

Kamuelaflyer

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But the August cutoff applies only to FE reservation, no? In which case they're getting delivery anyway. For everyone else, date of conversion shouldn't affect place in line, right?
Terminology issues.

There’s a conversion cutoff for FE’s is the end of this month. Miss that cutoff and you lose your FE forever.

After that there’s a late August cutoff for actually being scheduled in run 1. Cars are scheduled to be built only after being ordered. If they meet the conversion deadline for that production run they get scheduled for production based upon their reservation time (other than all converted FEs will get built first). When the production run is full the left overs get rolled over to the next production run. Production run 1 is the shortest.

There are in all probability more conversions than spots available in run one. By necessity some confirmed orders (of an unknown number) will roll into run 2. There will be another cutoff to be scheduled into run 2. Then there’s the hard cutoff for all non GT orders of December 31. Miss that deadline and you lose your ability to order altogether.

And it’s the possible rollover that triggers the scenario I’m talking about. The question is how they handle the rollovers from production run to production run. Do they put them first in line or schedule by reservation time stamp and slide (some) back even further.
 
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ChasingCoral

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You're misunderstanding. I’m referring to folks who make the August cutoff but because of the limitations on run 1 will not have their vehicle built in run 1. In particular the Premium level builds in run 1 would be most affected.

So put yourself in someone with an order conversion on June 26 with say a 30,000 reservation number. Moves to run 2 as not enough can be built in run 1. That‘s fine and quite understandable. Now, someone who’s been sitting on on their reservation until very late in the year (or whenever the run 2 cutoff date is) converts their 10,000 number Rez into an order. That would push back the early order person yet further.

That would reward delaying ordering and punish early orders. I understand how the reservation system works and generally agree with it. But in the scenario laid out above, there’s little likelihood everyone who’s already converted will receive a vehicle in run 1. And that pushes them further back.

Personally, if I had made the order in June and saw people converting after Christmas getting delivery before me? I’d walk.
There is no punishment here, or rewards for delaying ordering. These are all adults who were told their options. Whether you convert on June 30 or July 31 shouldn't matter at all, even for First Editions. Ford has always been clear that it is reservation timestamp (not number) that matters. That also puts direct orders from dealers behind all converted reservations, with an obvious exception made for FCTP units. However, deadlines matter too. If Ford tells you you need to order by XX/xx date to keep your place in line (or lose your FE reservation), that matters too.

If you reserved and FE, you have until tomorrow 7/31 to convert or lose it.

If you reserved any other non-GT model, getting your order in by tomorrow 7/31 may mean being in the first hopper of orders to be scheduled. Then again, they may sweep in all the orders in hand 8/20 when scheduling begins. We don't know this but if I really wanted my Premium as soon as possible, I'd convert by tomorrow just in case.

All orders on hand 7/31 or 8/20 are swept into the scheduling system and used for the first run. The length of runs is unknown. I put them into three logical time chunks to match periods between holiday plant closures. They could be monthly, weekly or some other logical chunk.

The bigger questions come in after 8/20. Options include:
1) All orders in hand 8/20 are in the first "hopper-full" and emptied in order of reservation until the hopper is empty, scheduling all of those on hand into runs. They then they sweep in the next batch of reservations once the first hopper-full is empty. This puts higher priority on order date.
2) All orders in hand 8/20 are in the first "hopper-full" and emptied in order of reservation until the hopper is empty or the first run is fully scheduled. They then they sweep in the next batch of reservations in and re-sort by reservation date. This puts higher priority on order date.
3) There are no hoppers. All orders in hand 8/20 scheduled in order of reservation. The system continually takes in any new orders submitted and res-sorts and orders that have not already been scheduled. Once an order is scheduled it is pretty well locked-in; to do otherwise would cause system in the JIT parts logistics. This puts the highest priority on order date.

Perhaps someone with a better understanding of Ford's JIT implementation can help out here. I'm just a scientist.

No matter how you look at it, reservation timestamp is the top priority (along with model batching including FE first and at least some Premiums second, scheduling some for NA, some for EU/UK, etc.). Order/conversion date matters, too. I understand what you are saying @Kamuelaflyer about being annoyed if an order is passed over. However, just think about the person who has had their reservation in since last December. Hopefully Ford will continue to honor those early commitments.
 

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Hopefully Ford will continue to honor those early commitments.
*shrug* This is all a theoretical discussion anyway Mark, and there's nothing any of us can do about it even if it wasn't.

There's an inherent "not rightness" about any system that might keep pushing back someone's confirmed order simply because it couldn't fit it run 1. My personal preference is that orders be processed primarily on the reservation time stamp and secondarily upon order conversion date. Thus everyone in run 1 by reservation timestamp, Run 2 starts with the overflow from run 1 (sorted by rez timestamp), then adds in the people after that who didn't make the August scheduling date for run 1 sorted by rez timestamp. Wash, rinse, and repeat until the MY is done.

I think there's an extremely high likelihood that there are far more confirmed orders at this point than slots available in run 1. A fair, or maybe even large, percentage of orders are going to slide into run 2. For them, it's not theoretical as to how they fare compared to those who don't convert till say Post Thanksgiving but there's still nothing we can do about it. And we're just speculating as to just how the scheduling actually works anyway.

I personally have a limit as to how long I'll wait before I'll just walk away, but I long ago realized that the pandemic destroyed any chance I had at a 2020 delivery. Whether that limit is reached is quite another story.
 

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There is no punishment here, or rewards for delaying ordering. These are all adults who were told their options. Whether you convert on June 30 or July 31 shouldn't matter at all, even for First Editions. Ford has always been clear that it is reservation timestamp (not number) that matters. That also puts direct orders from dealers behind all converted reservations, with an obvious exception made for FCTP units. However, deadlines matter too. If Ford tells you you need to order by XX/xx date to keep your place in line (or lose your FE reservation), that matters too.

If you reserved and FE, you have until tomorrow 7/31 to convert or lose it.

If you reserved any other non-GT model, getting your order in by tomorrow 7/31 may mean being in the first hopper of orders to be scheduled. Then again, they may sweep in all the orders in hand 8/20 when scheduling begins. We don't know this but if I really wanted my Premium as soon as possible, I'd convert by tomorrow just in case.

All orders on hand 7/31 or 8/20 are swept into the scheduling system and used for the first run. The length of runs is unknown. I put them into three logical time chunks to match periods between holiday plant closures. They could be monthly, weekly or some other logical chunk.

The bigger questions come in after 8/20. Options include:
1) All orders in hand 8/20 are in the first "hopper-full" and emptied in order of reservation until the hopper is empty, scheduling all of those on hand into runs. They then they sweep in the next batch of reservations once the first hopper-full is empty. This puts higher priority on order date.
2) All orders in hand 8/20 are in the first "hopper-full" and emptied in order of reservation until the hopper is empty or the first run is fully scheduled. They then they sweep in the next batch of reservations in and re-sort by reservation date. This puts higher priority on order date.
3) There are no hoppers. All orders in hand 8/20 scheduled in order of reservation. The system continually takes in any new orders submitted and res-sorts and orders that have not already been scheduled. Once an order is scheduled it is pretty well locked-in; to do otherwise would cause system in the JIT parts logistics. This puts the highest priority on order date.

Perhaps someone with a better understanding of Ford's JIT implementation can help out here. I'm just a scientist.

No matter how you look at it, reservation timestamp is the top priority (along with model batching including FE first and at least some Premiums second, scheduling some for NA, some for EU/UK, etc.). Order/conversion date matters, too. I understand what you are saying @Kamuelaflyer about being annoyed if an order is passed over. However, just think about the person who has had their reservation in since last December. Hopefully Ford will continue to honor those early commitments.
To get to the point the dealers suppose to be working hard and turn reservations into deposits and orders by July 31st. We will find out the true number in the next weeks I'm sure of that. No one expected the demand for the mache to be this much. One shift already turning into two shifts, if suppliers can keep up then 2 shifts can turn into adding a C crew also. Once the broadcast sheets start coming in from Dearborn on where the Mache's are going and what specs are. Then will have some more feedback. That could take all of August. This is not just a trim launch on a car, few upgrades, new model in a ford plant. Total new car never done, and Ford is not going to rush anything out to the public that is not going to meet Fords high stakes on this car. I have seen two mache and road in one. Also road in the model y, model3, and the Mache craftmanship is on a whole nother level.
Ford Mustang Mach-E Production runs & line output guesstimates 1596129281292
 
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ChasingCoral

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5) I'm also sad to say that my theory they will produce FCTP (dealer demo) units before Job #1 has been squashed. So has the theory that dealers will get production cars for FCTP in September (pre-production special events are still possible). Each EV-certified dealer, of which there are ~2000, will only get to order a maximum of one Mach E (see attached from a little birdie not in Mexico), although there may be some supplements. Clearly they are being produced after Job #1 (currently scheduled for October 26) and it looks like the First Editions may literally be the first off the line.

Ford Mustang Mach-E Production runs & line output guesstimates 1596129281292
Just heard from someone at a dealership on the other site who just confirmed this information, completely with estimating they will have theirs in December.
 

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*shrug* This is all a theoretical discussion anyway Mark, and there's nothing any of us can do about it even if it wasn't.

There's an inherent "not rightness" about any system that might keep pushing back someone's confirmed order simply because it couldn't fit it run 1. My personal preference is that orders be processed primarily on the reservation time stamp and secondarily upon order conversion date. Thus everyone in run 1 by reservation timestamp, Run 2 starts with the overflow from run 1 (sorted by rez timestamp), then adds in the people after that who didn't make the August scheduling date for run 1 sorted by rez timestamp. Wash, rinse, and repeat until the MY is done.

I think there's an extremely high likelihood that there are far more confirmed orders at this point than slots available in run 1. A fair, or maybe even large, percentage of orders are going to slide into run 2. For them, it's not theoretical as to how they fare compared to those who don't convert till say Post Thanksgiving but there's still nothing we can do about it. And we're just speculating as to just how the scheduling actually works anyway.

I personally have a limit as to how long I'll wait before I'll just walk away, but I long ago realized that the pandemic destroyed any chance I had at a 2020 delivery. Whether that limit is reached is quite another story.
Agree - I would love to have the Mach E but if it takes too long to get it, and other BEV options become readily available (other than Tesla) I would consider those other options. Its unfortunate and I dont realistically expect my order before Spring but it goes into Summer it will be a decision time.
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