Solar payoff....worth it?

[Scooby24]

I live in Phoenix and have really high usage, up to 6000 KWH in the hot months. I spend $5K per year. so I just got a solar quote, they quoted 30KW system at $100K. 20 year payoff, no way, it is not worth it. Every few years I hear costs are coming down, but each time I get a quote it is ridiculous.

My personal opinion is this, if it cannot pay for itself in 5 years, then it is too expensive. 90% of my usage is off peak, including charging my two EVs and running my pool pumps, laundry, etc.

What if you could do it for less than half that yourself?

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[ZuleMME]

You typically need batteries to simulate the line when power goes out to give timing to the inverter. Otherwise you have no power when the grid is down even though your panels are fine. Small battery system is plenty if the goal is just power during the day When power is out.

 

[TRP]

If I read correctly, you said you have a quote, you should have several. There are a lot of ways to approach this and what one engineer has proposed may not be the best option for you.

Next, a ground based system is the most expensive way to go. It may not be your best option. My home system has the worst roof imaginable for solar. To get enough panels on my roof I have some facing North, East, West, and some South - hardly optimal - but my system is paying for itself in 5.5 years.

Maybe if it was on your roof there would be partial shade at times - ok, maybe you need a system with micro inverters.

I talked to multiple companies, looked at multiple configurations, and many different sizes and layout before I found the sweet.

Every situation is different, so you need to look closely to find the right solution.

In general though - buy - don't lease. Don't just do Solar - get rid of all your incandescent bulbs and go LED. Talk with your utility company and find out about rebates and special rate plans, some areas have special metering and incentives just for EVs.

I am looking for other places to get quotes. I'm not done on that front.

Ground vs roof is the same cost from these folks with the exception of the trenching work. My roof is not even remotely a viable location for solar. Way too many trees, I could give you my address to google earth and you won't be able to see the house. Not even exagerating. Our solution is place a ground array about 200 feet from the house in the horse pasture in direct sunlight.

Not considering a lease either.

I'm in TN......there are no incentives from our utility. NONE. No special rate plans, no off our rates, absolutely nothing. Flat rate of 90-10cents that updates daily, that's it.
We have replaced all bulbs with LED, did that a few years ago. Honestly, out utility bill is not that bad. I was just looking for a solution to reduce or eliminate it that would pay for itself in a reasonable amount of time. I haven't found that solution yet. I could do a large portion of the work myself but there are portions of it that at this time are beyond my comfort level. This is not a project I take lightly and will not make a decision for a while as I have a ton more work to do before I can even consider doing that.

 

[TRP]

OK, just to show my unique situation. Here's a goggle earth pic. That red flag is the house. I know, you can't see it. That clearing to the right is the pasture. That's our only option for clear sky.

Maybe I'm chasing my tail thinking we can make this work for us, but I'm trying. LOL

 

[TTT]

The plus side is you have a great place to live. It sure does look like you need to put them in the horse pasture, huh? If you are game do ask what it would cost if you did the trench yourself maybe. The ditch witch is an easy rental, and the number for your local dig safe is a few clicks away.

I think the suggestion that you need to pay it off in 5 years is a bit aggressive. Your are probably putting money away in a retirement account - what has that averaged over the last 10 years - 7%? Whatever your solar does its going to be pretty reliable, and electric rates don't tend to go down, so the ROI will probably go up slowly over time, even if you lose a little efficiency year over year.

My system is 5 years old now and I can't prove any loss in efficiency - my annual average seems to be pretty consistent. Maybe that's an advantage of changing weather?

That does bring up the intangible value though, if it gets you closer to carbon neutral - that has value. Regardless of how much sleep you lose over climate change, or not, nobody can argue that burning fossil fuels is good for anybody or anything, just a question of how bad.

If your local electric utility is in fact solar unfriendly today, the good news is that it can only get better. Maybe 5 years in policy will shift and and they will have a time of use plan. Certainly in 5 years the cost of electricity will be higher than today. Your numbers can never get worse then.

 

[TruWrecks]

Even if the goal is electric independence like mine is. I want my house to not need the grid. I will make adjustments to live on the 8.4 kWh system and 20 kWh batteries. In a 15 years it will pay for itself. If the panels last 40 years that is 25 years of free power.

 

[BMT1071]

I live in Phoenix and have really high usage, up to 6000 KWH in the hot months. I spend $5K per year. so I just got a solar quote, they quoted 30KW system at $100K. 20 year payoff, no way, it is not worth it. Every few years I hear costs are coming down, but each time I get a quote it is ridiculous.

My personal opinion is this, if it cannot pay for itself in 5 years, then it is too expensive. 90% of my usage is off peak, including charging my two EVs and running my pool pumps, laundry, etc.

That is a mind blowing level of usage.

 

[WWJPD]

The batteries are what is pushing up your price, but if you want the piece of mind, you either need that or a backup generator, but a backup generator is going to throw lots of CO2.

I’ve seen the ”payback” argument many times and I think if that’s all you want to focus on, go ahead, but to me, it was more about reducing my family’s carbon footprint, then backup, then payback. The MME is one part of that as I won’t be spewing exhaust, but I’m sure not going to get a “payback” on the car, even using the free energy from my big ass PV array. So the payback argument isn’t really valid for my reasons. Now that doesn’t mean I shouldn’t have tried getting a decent deal. And I’ve heard the arguments that making solar panels creates as much CO2, but that’s just not true-there is a CO2 cost, but not the literal tons of CO2 an ICE car is pushing out.

Good luck with the solar project.

 

[woody]

Relative.
Should you expect to get rich from a solar install, forget it.
Should you expect to save money over the next 25 years, go for it.
Should you think you will feel good or wish to make the world better by purchasing an EV or installing solar, do it, Pruitt.
Have fun in the sun.

 

[woody]

footnote:
we use No fossil fuels for energy - all electric home, only EVs.
We produce more energy than we use (much more in Summer months when the grid needs it the most)
Batteries are the current obstacle:
Our battery back up is only ~30kWh. Should be much more.
Solid state, we wait.
CO recently passed legislation allowing 200% solar install, which should make up most of the difference in winter months

 

[TruWrecks]

I live in Phoenix and have really high usage, up to 6000 KWH in the hot months. I spend $5K per year. so I just got a solar quote, they quoted 30KW system at $100K. 20 year payoff, no way, it is not worth it. Every few years I hear costs are coming down, but each time I get a quote it is ridiculous.

That is about 200 kWh per day. I know people with Arc welders that don't use that much daily on very busy projects. That can run my 1240 sq ft house for 7 days without being cautious.

You have some serous use going on there!

 

[engnrng]

I have a bid from a solar install company for 7.6kw system. Included is 9kw battery backup, 7.6kw inverter, all racking for a ground mount, wiring and trenching, installed comes to about $30000.

Based on a solar calculator estimating what that system can expect to generate here looks like we would see about $79 mo on each bill averaged out over the year.

We pay 9-10cents per kw, let's call it 10cents for arguments sake.
Our total bill last year was $1653.55
Est output of solar system would be $943.70
Leaving a balance of $709.85 or about $59.16mo for our usage.
Last year average bill was $137.79.
Difference between old and set new bill would be $78.63.

Tax credit is 26% right now so total installed price after tax credit would be $22200 with the tax credit being $7800.

Admittedly I am not good at the maths but my best effort shows about a 20yr to pay off estimate. That hardly seems worth the effort to install it. Am I missing something or is that about right?

Now, I'm all for going green, I drive electric for crying out loud, but 20yrs is a bit much, in my opinion.

What say you?

These topics have also been discussed on other threads. From a purely $$ standpoint, using your numbers, you estimate $950 annual savings on a $22,000 investment. That works out to 4.3% TAX FREE rate of return on net invested capital. Unless you are over 72 years old, I would use an equity line of credit rather than taking money out of your retirement nest egg - see your tax advisor. In that case, you might still do better than break even - interest expense for HELOC (deductible) vs savings (tax free). Last year we increased our solar and battery setup by 50% so that our 2 EV's would be fueled by solar and we are net producers of zero emission energy. Since I am in SoCal, our electricity cost is more than double yours, on average, so easy to justify from a $$investment standpoint, we get about 7% tax free rate of return. However, even if I broke even I would still have done it. Have you seen the movie "Chasing Coral" or "Chasing Ice"? Given the bigger picture of the planet, and the effects of GHG and the resulting climate changes, it is an absolute no-brainer for anyone willing to look beyond next month's electric bill. Look beyond your lifetime, what can you do for those who are going to live in the conditions we all leave behind? That is what I say!

 

[engnrng]

That is about 200 kWh per day. I know people with Arc welders that don't use that much daily on very busy projects. That can run my 1240 sq ft house for 7 days without being cautious.

You have some serous use going on there!

I agree, we have a 5000 sf house, 2 EV's, 2 Air Conditioners, 2 EV's, a pool and spa, and we average about 40 kWh per day, or 1200 kWh per month - more in the hot months, less in the winter. I can't imagine using 5X that amount - although I do not live in AZ!!!

 

[engnrng]

I live in Phoenix and have really high usage, up to 6000 KWH in the hot months. I spend $5K per year. so I just got a solar quote, they quoted 30KW system at $100K. 20 year payoff, no way, it is not worth it. Every few years I hear costs are coming down, but each time I get a quote it is ridiculous.

My personal opinion is this, if it cannot pay for itself in 5 years, then it is too expensive. 90% of my usage is off peak, including charging my two EVs and running my pool pumps, laundry, etc.

Perhaps look at ROI: Where can you get $5000 TAX FREE and RISK FREE return on $74k net investment? That works out to nearly 7% investment return - year after year, without paying taxes on that 7%. Stock dividends? Nope, they are taxable. Bonds? Nope, they are much less return and risky. Pretty good investment in your own home IMHO. Was it a solar roof?

 

[woody]

Who are you going with? Being local to you I'd be interested in getting them to give me a quote.

Check out Paragon Solar, Scott Carman. At the very least, hire him as a consultant. Worth it, trust me. He is actually a true solar expert.

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