Solar payoff....worth it?

[EELinneman]

correct

my point is that you typically do not NEED $15k worth of BBU to cover a couple hours outage once a year. It is less expensive to get a propane Generator for $3k-$4k

...or disconnect fro the grid, get an 'off-grid' pure-sine inverter, and run critical loads directly from your MME battery until the grid comes back up.

Does anybody know if doing this voids your warranty? I remember hearing about Texas Tesla owners doing this during the brownout earlier this year and having their warranties voided as a result.

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[Scooby24]

Since it didn’t exist in 2008, they would be correct.

I don’t think that in 10 years we will still have thousands of competing currencies that all still exist and are widely used for transactions…….

And I definitely don’t trust the one that was created in 2009 by an anonymous group who disappeared in 2011 and funds drugs, sex traffickers, terrorists and money launderers while requiring TONS of electricity for transactions (which is horrible for the planet by the way, back on topic).

Its existence was conceptualized in 2008, hence when speculation began. The network went online 1/3/2009.

The electricity argument is a great one if you don't look at what we currently use for maintaining our dominating currencies.

 

[Mach1E]

Its existence was conceptualized in 2008, hence when speculation began. The network went online 1/3/2009.

The electricity argument is a great one if you don't look at what we currently use for maintaining our dominating currencies.

I agree with the first half of your sentence: “The electricity argument is a great one.”

One single Bitcoin transaction consumes the same energy as hundreds of thousands of credit card transactions:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/881541/bitcoin-energy-consumption-transaction-comparison-visa/

There’s literally no comparison.

Bitcoin and environmentalism shouldn’t be used in the same sentence.

And the irony of using your energy savings from Solar energy to fund Bitcoin investments……

Reminds me of a joke I made the other day about being “carbon neutral.” I told my friend for every can I recycle, I throw one in the ocean.

 

[Scooby24]

I agree with the first half of your sentence: “The electricity argument is a great one.”

One single Bitcoin transaction consumes the same energy as hundreds of thousands of credit card transactions:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/881541/bitcoin-energy-consumption-transaction-comparison-visa/

There’s literally no comparison.

Bitcoin and environmentalism shouldn’t be used in the same sentence.

And the irony of using your energy savings from Solar energy to fund Bitcoin investments……

Reminds me of a joke I made the other day about being “carbon neutral.” I told my friend for every can I recycle, I throw one in the ocean.

Much of the bitcoin energy is coming from renewables, and many times otherwise wasted renewables....or it was up until China stopped the farms.

Everything starts from somewhere. Bitcoin was the first of its kind. I never said I was investing in bitcoin, did I? I said I'm mining crypto. Of which ETH is what's profitable. It's also using way less power. I'm processing those transactions at 480 mh/s for only around 30kwh per day.

But you know what they say about assumptions.

 

[Mach1E]

Much of the bitcoin energy is coming from renewables, and many times otherwise wasted renewables....or it was up until China stopped the farms.

Everything starts from somewhere. Bitcoin was the first of its kind. I never said I was investing in bitcoin, did I? I said I'm mining crypto. Of which ETH is what's profitable. It's also using way less power. I'm processing those transactions at 480 mh/s for only around 30kwh per day.

But you know what they say about assumptions.

I feel like it was someone here who first brought up Bitcoin.

Yeah...just like they were saying about bitcoin back in 2008...oh wait.

? Yup that’s what I thought, wasn’t me.

So 1/3 of the Bitcoin energy comes from renewables. Cool.

That only makes it 200,000 times worse than a credit card transaction instead of 300,000 times worse.

And yes, ETH uses less electricity, but not less than a credit card. Since you’re on solar you did your part to offset it, but not the case for most people.

Bottom line? Crypto causes hurricanes and it’s your fault. (How’s that for a logical leap? ?)

 

[dtbaker61]

Does anybody know if doing this voids your warranty? I remember hearing about Texas Tesla owners doing this during the brownout earlier this year and having their warranties voided as a result.

why would it void anything?

you would simply be using the 12v 'connection points' they provided to put energy into, or export from, the 12v battery.

 

[dtbaker61]

It would only be doubling your money if the 10 year old equipment is still worth what you paid for 10 years ago.

its the future production value for ANOTHER 10-15 years, which is warrantied with Premium Modules that makes the 10-year old equipment an asset that still has value. You don't have to remove it to realize the value, you have a good Realtor add the 'remaining warrantied production value' to their normal CMA when they set the List Price for the home.

If you don't sell the home, YOU get the value. If you DO sell the home, you actually get more because the remaining future production value can use the then-current utility retail rate * annual production * remaining warranty years

 

[dtbaker61]

No one!

That’s my point!

So you wouldn’t have “doubled your money in 10 years,” just like I said in the first place.

In that scenario, after 10 years, $10k went out to pay for the system, $10k came back in. Net return zero.

no......
you still own the asset on the roof. if it's Premium modules, they will produce ANOTHER $15k... and likely to continue after that, but just not warranteed.

Whether you keep the house, or sell it, you can still 'make' that $15k after 'payback'.... more than doubling your money.

 

[Mach1E]

its the future production value for ANOTHER 10-15 years, which is warrantied with Premium Modules that makes the 10-year old equipment an asset that still has value. You don't have to remove it to realize the value, you have a good Realtor add the 'remaining warrantied production value' to their normal CMA when they set the List Price for the home.

If you don't sell the home, YOU get the value. If you DO sell the home, you actually get more because the remaining future production value can use the then-current utility retail rate * annual production * remaining warranty years

Yes, which is why I said it “doubled your money in 20 years.” Which is a 3% return.

Again, tell me what you think the 10 yr old equipment is worth and I can calculate your rate of return at 10 years. But either way, it’s not double.

 

[Mach1E]

no......
you still own the asset on the roof. if it's Premium modules, they will produce ANOTHER $15k... and likely to continue after that, but just not warranteed.

Whether you keep the house, or sell it, you can still 'make' that $15k after 'payback'.... more than doubling your money.

Yes, you can eventually double your money. But again, in that example, not in 10 years.

It’s all just math. Not sure why so many are trying to argue the numbers. Pick whatever situation you like and we can calculate the rate of return.

I explained earlier why I ignore the “used panel value” at 10 years but I’ll try again:
1. What’s it even worth? It would cost money to rip off the roof and they’re 10 yrs old.
2. no one would do that (rip off a system and try to resell as an investment)
3. To keep the math straight forward and simpler to understand.

The one guy already has a situation where a $15k install saved $300/mo. The rate of return is awesome on that deal. Unfortunately it doesn’t seem like anyone else here has had the same cost nor result. Just a guess but I’m guessing to get those numbers you’d have to have done it a few years ago with a lot of tax credits and installed yourself.

 

[Scooby24]

I feel like it was someone here who first brought up Bitcoin.

? Yup that’s what I thought, wasn’t me.

Yes I referenced bitcoin because it's lasted well over 10 years and has dramatically increased in value. It was a direct contradiction to your claim that crypto would be worth nothing in 10 years. It was a logical counter argument and not predicated on that being my investment crypto.

So 1/3 of the Bitcoin energy comes from renewables. Cool.

That only makes it 200,000 times worse than a credit card transaction instead of 300,000 times worse.

50% was hydro alone during the wet season in China. Due to the consumption there's very strong motivation to use renewables for cost alone. That and network difficulty has improved over time in major ways. It's still in its infancy and there's nothing to say it will be the dominant crypto 10 years from now. But unless you're the worst investor ever, you monitor the market and convert when it's time. Ebbs and flows.

And yes, ETH uses less electricity, but not less than a credit card. Since you’re on solar you did your part to offset it, but not the case for most people.

Bottom line? Crypto causes hurricanes and it’s your fault. (How’s that for a logical leap? ?)

It will use far less as soon as it switches to ETH 2.0 next year (ish). The transition from proof of work to proof of stake will mean only the single transaction needs to be completed on the blockchain and difficulty will be incredibly easy. There are proof of stake coins out there already like Solana and Cardano.

I understand the skepticism but there are major, major benefits of crypto and decentralized exchanges. Retailers are moving in the direction of picking the cryptos they will take and it's growing...fast. The race is on for dominance in the crypto market. You're welcome to bury your head in the sand if you wish and pretend crypto won't be around long term. You may be right. But imagine if you're wrong like all of us were about bitcoin 10 years ago. I'm positioning myself to be prepared for it to take off....and Solar is helping me get there.

 

[dtbaker61]

Yes, which is why I said it “doubled your money in 20 years.” Which is a 3% return.

Again, tell me what you think the 10 yr old equipment is worth and I can calculate your rate of return at 10 years. But either way, it’s not double.

I will take one more shot at this... what I think you are missing is that the equipment is not a depreciable asset losing value over time like any other non-income producing/saving home improvement. It's minimum 'value' at ANY time is the total value of kWhrs produced x retail value of kWhrs that you would otherwise pay for. Better yet the savings are tax free.

If you have a $10k net investment (after Federal ITC of 26%), that means you had a gross cost about $12600... assuming you live in a State which has 0% State ITC. Many States have 10% State ITC, but forget that for now.

Your $12600 gross outlay probably got you a 3.6 kW Solar system, which will generate about 6120 kWhr per year in most places under average conditions. National retail cost for Electricity (excluding base fees) ranges from $.09/kWhr - $.30/kWhr peak in some places. National average I think is around $.13 last I read. So, the system will be producing about 6120 x .13 = $795 worth of Electricity per year.

If you consider $795/$10000 = annual rate of return on net investment = 7.96%
...and it gets better every time utility rates go up, which has been more (about 5% ) than rate of inflation (about 3%). but ignore that to keep it simple.

if you got Premium panels (with a true 25 year parts and labor production warranty, as opposed to many that have a 25 yr degradation rate warranty, but only 10 years on production in the fine print)... regardless when you sell your home, the minimum total value of the panels if utility rate never went up is determined by the 25 year warrantied production value.... 25 * $795 = $19890
... and the panels usually have a 40 yr 'design life' so likely to keep going, but not warranteed.

To me, this looks like a risk free 8% annual ROI, or better, unless you think Utility rates won't go up more than the inflation rate for the next 25 years?

Regardless, I'm done trying to correct your math.

 

[Mach1E]

Yes I referenced bitcoin because it's lasted well over 10 years and has dramatically increased in value. It was a direct contradiction to your claim that crypto would be worth nothing in 10 years. It was a logical counter argument and not predicated on that being my investment crypto.



50% was hydro alone during the wet season in China. Due to the consumption there's very strong motivation to use renewables for cost alone. That and network difficulty has improved over time in major ways. It's still in its infancy and there's nothing to say it will be the dominant crypto 10 years from now. But unless you're the worst investor ever, you monitor the market and convert when it's time. Ebbs and flows.



It will use far less as soon as it switches to ETH 2.0 next year (ish). The transition from proof of work to proof of stake will mean only the single transaction needs to be completed on the blockchain and difficulty will be incredibly easy. There are proof of stake coins out there already like Solana and Cardano.

I understand the skepticism but there are major, major benefits of crypto and decentralized exchanges. Retailers are moving in the direction of picking the cryptos they will take and it's growing...fast. The race is on for dominance in the crypto market. You're welcome to bury your head in the sand if you wish and pretend crypto won't be around long term. You may be right. But imagine if you're wrong like all of us were about bitcoin 10 years ago. I'm positioning myself to be prepared for it to take off....and Solar is helping me get there.

Just because something did well for the last ten years doesn’t mean it will for the next 10.

No head in sand here, just as simple as “this town ain’t big enough for the two of us” logic.

For crypto it’s a matter of “this town ain’t big enough for the 6,500 of us.”

There cannot and will not be 6,500 competing currencies that survive the next decade. Either a few survive and dominate or none do.

And as an investor, I’m not going to bet that I can pick the zero to ten winners out of 6,500 and growing. If you think you’ve got the winning ticket, go for it.

This isn’t a dig on crypto nor blockchain, just a generalization about it as an “investment.”

Now the comments earlier about how it funds drugs, sex trafficking, money launderers and terrorists all while wasting ridiculous amounts of electricity ……. That’s a dig on crypto.

 

[Scooby24]

Just because something did well for the last ten years doesn’t mean it will for the next 10.

No head in sand here, just as simple as “this town ain’t big enough for the two of us” logic.

For crypto it’s a matter of “this town ain’t big enough for the 6,500 of us.”

There cannot and will not be 6,500 competing currencies that survive the next decade. Either a few survive and dominate or none do.

And as an investor, I’m not going to bet that I can pick the zero to ten winners out of 6,500 and growing. If you think you’ve got the winning ticket, go for it.

This isn’t a dig on crypto nor blockchain, just a generalization about it as an “investment.”

Now the comments earlier about how it funds drugs, sex trafficking, money launderers and terrorists all while wasting ridiculous amounts of electricity ……. That’s a dig on crypto.

Right, cash has never funded these, has it?

 

[Mach1E]

I will take one more shot at this... what I think you are missing is that the equipment is not a depreciable asset losing value over time like any other non-income producing/saving home improvement. It's minimum 'value' at ANY time is the total value of kWhrs produced x retail value of kWhrs that you would otherwise pay for. Better yet the savings are tax free.

If you have a $10k net investment (after Federal ITC of 26%), that means you had a gross cost about $12600... assuming you live in a State which has 0% State ITC. Many States have 10% State ITC, but forget that for now.

Your $12600 gross outlay probably got you a 3.6 kW Solar system, which will generate about 6120 kWhr per year in most places under average conditions. National retail cost for Electricity (excluding base fees) ranges from $.09/kWhr - $.30/kWhr peak in some places. National average I think is around $.13 last I read. So, the system will be producing about 6120 x .13 = $795 worth of Electricity per year.

If you consider $795/$10000 = annual rate of return on net investment = 7.96%
...and it gets better every time utility rates go up, which has been more (about 5% ) than rate of inflation (about 3%). but ignore that to keep it simple.

if you got Premium panels (with a true 25 year parts and labor production warranty, as opposed to many that have a 25 yr degradation rate warranty, but only 10 years on production in the fine print)... regardless when you sell your home, the minimum total value of the panels if utility rate never went up is determined by the 25 year warrantied production value.... 25 * $795 = $19890
... and the panels usually have a 40 yr 'design life' so likely to keep going, but not warranteed.

To me, this looks like a risk free 8% annual ROI, or better, unless you think Utility rates won't go up more than the inflation rate for the next 25 years?

Regardless, I'm done trying to correct your math.

Ughh……. At least your math is better than the first guy, and you’re close, but still not there

But it’s not because your math is wrong, it’s just because we are disagreeing on the value of the solar panels after they’re installed. Semantics at this point, but it’s a very impactful number that matters to the rate of return.

It is a depreciating asset. Plain and simple. But you’re treating it as if a $10,000 system is always worth $10,000.

As soon as you install it it starts losing value. Day 1: the cost to install….. gone.

Year 10- probably worth half the cost of the initial cost, less what it would cost to uninstall.

Yr 20,30 or whenever it dies, it’s worthless. Actually has a negative value at that point because you have to pay someone to uninstall it.

So it’s not an 8% return. It’s still a decent return, but not 8%.


It’s ok though, at least it’s better than when we convince ourselves that a $50,000 kitchen remodel will “pay for itself” when you sell your home 15 years later. In reality the next buyers will rip out your 15 yr old kitchen because it’s “dated.”

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