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Update on Mach-E launch progress from engineering friends in Mexico

JWW

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Ford owner site is in the dumper
"In the dumper" = error that your request cannot be processed becasue it is too old (transaction been idle too long)? 174
 

Kamuelaflyer

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The Ford site is one place I can always get into ... even on my iPhone. Go figure.
 

MerryBrown

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The Ford site is one place I can always get into ... even on my iPhone. Go figure.
Bill I am curious why you feel your emails make it sound like your car will be delayed until next year?
I haven't gotten any emails from Ford. Their website is frequently problematic for me, and as I have said before, I live on the edge of the Silicon Valley.
 

Kamuelaflyer

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Bill I am curious why you feel your emails make it sound like your car will be delayed until next year?
I haven't gotten any emails from Ford. Their website is frequently problematic for me, and as I have said before, I live on the edge of the Silicon Valley.
I reserved in very early February 2020. It's very unlikely that more than a "handful" of Premiums will be delivered in 2020. Unless you placed a premium reservation in November (and converted it), you were probably going to be waiting until 2021 anyway. At some point Ford has to start EU production and prioritize it as well. The original 50K split was 60% EU/UK and 40% NA. I think it's probable that the expanded orders (to 70,000 or 80,000) are split the same way. My reservation is slightly better than the 50% mark based upon the pre-order reservation numbers ranging from roughly 4000 through 80,000.

My personal opinion, based upon the fact that I'm an airline pilot and therefore have an opinion on most everything, is that the reservation numbers were sequential and that the conversion rate to orders is very high. I could be roughly the 32,000th reservation out of the 50,000 initial cars. At 1300 cars per week at peak production that's a bit over 24 weeks -- presuming 1300/week. Except they're not starting out at 1300 per week.

That means my car comes off the assembly line no earlier than April but later is not only possible it's quite likely. Add in the 2 month shipping time (high-end estimate, a best-case estimate is no less than 5 weeks) from the factory to Hilo and we're looking at a range of delivery from roughly June 2021 through September 2021.

Now if there are only really 50,000 orders, it's all different. And if there are only parts enough for 50,000 cars but orders for 70,000 plus, there's a very different issue (and an extremely improbable likelihood I think).

But if you were thinking I meant 2022 model year, no. But if that were to happen, I'd pass on the car regardless of why it happened.
 

ClaudeMach-E

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I reserved in very early February 2020. It's very unlikely that more than a "handful" of Premiums will be delivered in 2020. Unless you placed a premium reservation in November (and converted it), you were probably going to be waiting until 2021 anyway. At some point Ford has to start EU production and prioritize it as well. The original 50K split was 60% EU/UK and 40% NA. I think it's probable that the expanded orders (to 70,000 or 80,000) are split the same way. My reservation is slightly better than the 50% mark based upon the pre-order reservation numbers ranging from roughly 4000 through 80,000.

My personal opinion, based upon the fact that I'm an airline pilot and therefore have an opinion on most everything, is that the reservation numbers were sequential and that the conversion rate to orders is very high. I could be roughly the 32,000th reservation out of the 50,000 initial cars. At 1300 cars per week at peak production that's a bit over 24 weeks -- presuming 1300/week. Except they're not starting out at 1300 per week.

That means my car comes off the assembly line no earlier than April but later is not only possible it's quite likely. Add in the 2 month shipping time (high-end estimate, a best-case estimate is no less than 5 weeks) from the factory to Hilo and we're looking at a range of delivery from roughly June 2021 through September 2021.

Now if there are only really 50,000 orders, it's all different. And if there are only parts enough for 50,000 cars but orders for 70,000 plus, there's a very different issue (and an extremely improbable likelihood I think).

But if you were thinking I meant 2022 model year, no. But if that were to happen, I'd pass on the car regardless of why it happened.
You also have to subtract from your estimate the 30% GT which will not be built before spring most likely and let's say 5% of cancellations. My reservations was from the beginning of January and taking in account all of these factors plus the Covid delay I presumebly expect a delivery in March.
 

Jimrpa

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I know nothing about automotive production scheduling, but I’m guessing they want to minimize production line changes and maximize initial profits, so with that, I’m selfishly hoping production is sequenced:
First Editions
Premium ER AWD
Premium ER
CA Rte 1
Premium SR AWD
Premium SR
Select ER AWD
Select SR AWD
Select ER
Select SR

who knows? Maybe they just come into the factory each day and draw build sheets at random out of a pile, or look at whatever parts are laying around?
 

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I know nothing about automotive production scheduling, but I’m guessing they want to minimize production line changes and maximize initial profits, so with that, I’m selfishly hoping production is sequenced:
First Editions
Premium ER AWD
Premium ER
CA Rte 1
Premium SR AWD
Premium SR
Select ER AWD
Select SR AWD
Select ER
Select SR

who knows? Maybe they just come into the factory each day and draw build sheets at random out of a pile, or look at whatever parts are laying around?
The plant people will likely be familiar with the mix, but I would guess it would be 80% FE initially, since by definition they were promised first (and they are basically a Premium with painted calipers and some trim color difference). The Select/CA would be for OKTB purposes.
 

Kamuelaflyer

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You also have to subtract from your estimate the 30% GT which will not be built before spring most likely and let's say 5% of cancellations. My reservations was from the beginning of January and taking in account all of these factors plus the Covid delay I presumebly expect a delivery in March.
True, but I also was not accounting for the high probability that the initial production in the 2021 calendar year will be heavily biased towards European delivery. Plus there’s no certainty that cars will be built in strict reservation order regardless of trim level.

There’s so much we don’t know that all of this is pretty much a WAG. If I get an MME before June, great. If it’s not here in July, my dealer might have one on his lot to sell.
 
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MerryBrown

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I reserved in very early February 2020. It's very unlikely that more than a "handful" of Premiums will be delivered in 2020. Unless you placed a premium reservation in November (and converted it), you were probably going to be waiting until 2021 anyway. At some point Ford has to start EU production and prioritize it as well. The original 50K split was 60% EU/UK and 40% NA. I think it's probable that the expanded orders (to 70,000 or 80,000) are split the same way. My reservation is slightly better than the 50% mark based upon the pre-order reservation numbers ranging from roughly 4000 through 80,000.

My personal opinion, based upon the fact that I'm an airline pilot and therefore have an opinion on most everything, is that the reservation numbers were sequential and that the conversion rate to orders is very high. I could be roughly the 32,000th reservation out of the 50,000 initial cars. At 1300 cars per week at peak production that's a bit over 24 weeks -- presuming 1300/week. Except they're not starting out at 1300 per week.

That means my car comes off the assembly line no earlier than April but later is not only possible it's quite likely. Add in the 2 month shipping time (high-end estimate, a best-case estimate is no less than 5 weeks) from the factory to Hilo and we're looking at a range of delivery from roughly June 2021 through September 2021.

Now if there are only really 50,000 orders, it's all different. And if there are only parts enough for 50,000 cars but orders for 70,000 plus, there's a very different issue (and an extremely improbable likelihood I think).

But if you were thinking I meant 2022 model year, no. But if that were to happen, I'd pass on the car regardless of why it happened.
Thank you for that response. I understand now. I was just a bit confused, but you have explained it. However, I am a bit more alarmed for my own vehicle now. I was not in the initial reservation system. I did order on 7/8, but I don't think that does me a whole lot of good. So I fall way behind you and all of the guys who were in the reservation system. I really want one of these cars! But I am not waiting until 2022 either. At this point, I guess I still tight and see what happens when people actually start getting their delivery dates. If it's going to stretch out past July 2021 I have a decision to make.
 

Kamuelaflyer

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Thank you for that response. I understand now. I was just a bit confused, but you have explained it. However, I am a bit more alarmed for my own vehicle now. I was not in the initial reservation system. I did order on 7/8, but I don't think that does me a whole lot of good. So I fall way behind you and all of the guys who were in the reservation system. I really want one of these cars! But I am not waiting until 2022 either. At this point, I guess I still tight and see what happens when people actually start getting their delivery dates. If it's going to stretch out past July 2021 I have a decision to make.
My guess above is a worst-case scenario. It does not account, as pointed out, for the GT's and presumes the EU/UK cars are produced first in cy 2021. Plus the shipping time to your dealer in San Jose, Sunnyvale, Fremont, etc is on the order of several magnitudes faster than to Hilo or Kona. Our shipping times are roughly equivalent to those living in the EU.

The best-case scenario is far faster for anyone on the mainland. Order dates are not as important as reservation dates if you reserved prior to the orders opening. Also, if you look at @ChasingCoral postings on his updated schedule post, he has them finishing in 2021 including those who ordered without reservations. Moving into 2022 will require multiple things to go wrong nearly simultaneously, none of which are terribly likely to happen (other than dealing with an ongoing pandemic we've yet to address unlike the EU).
 

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My guess above is a worst-case scenario. It does not account, as pointed out, for the GT's and presumes the EU/UK cars are produced first in cy 2021. Plus the shipping time to your dealer in San Jose, Sunnyvale, Fremont, etc is on the order of several magnitudes faster than to Hilo or Kona. Our shipping times are roughly equivalent to those living in the EU.

The best-case scenario is far faster for anyone on the mainland. Order dates are not as important as reservation dates if you reserved prior to the orders opening. Also, if you look at @ChasingCoral postings on his updated schedule post, he has them finishing in 2021 including those who ordered without reservations. Moving into 2022 will require multiple things to go wrong nearly simultaneously, none of which are terribly likely to happen (other than dealing with an ongoing pandemic we've yet to address unlike the EU).
I do know @ChasingCoral has an excellent schedule listing which gives me hope. I am curious why the UK/European cars are scheduled first? Does anyone know that answer?
 

Kamuelaflyer

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There are legal reasons in the EU. They have stricter environmental standards and the MME is necessary to help drive up the average fuel economy for Ford (among other things). In that sense, you might consider it a "compliance car." Economically, the EU is also the first world's largest market at around 445 million people. Compare that to the USA's population of 330 million or so.

Perhaps one of our EU forum members could comment on the EU laws facilitating earlier rather than later delivery by Ford? I'd ask one of the UK members, but they Bexit'd out -- sort of. ;)
 
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portlandg

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I do know @ChasingCoral has an excellent schedule listing which gives me hope. I am curious why the UK/European cars are scheduled first? Does anyone know that answer?
Probably because Ford, along with all other manufacturers will get hefty fines this year and next if they fail (most will) to get their co2 emissions down. The sooner the MME lands in UK/EUR the average emissions for Ford will reduce making the fines less
 

MerryBrown

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Probably because Ford, along with all other manufacturers will get hefty fines this year and next if they fail (most will) to get their co2 emissions down. The sooner the MME lands in UK/EUR the average emissions for Ford will reduce making the fines less
Ah that explains it! I was wondering about that! Thanks!
 



 









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