Vacation Trips - Not in a Mach E

[cometguy]

Sure, you won't be able to drive from Boston to Seattle in 53 hours (NOT RECOMMENDED EVEN IN AN ICE CAR...I did it and it sucked), but sitting for 8+ hours with minimal breaks is terrible for your health anyway. Instead of eating in your car on a road trip, just stop for breakfast, lunch, and dinner and sit down to eat while charging. Take a 20 minute walk to stretch your legs. I honestly don't see it as that big of an inconvenience in areas where charging stations are relatively common. I totally get that the infrastructure isn't quite there in some parts of the country, but it's moving in that direction quickly. My wife and I are looking forward to road trips with our parrot, since we should stop every few hours to let him stretch out anyway. Here's the Electrify America map (Ford partnered with them for the fordpass charging network, obviously there are other/more charging options but these will be free for two years)

Your map made me think of the situation a hundred years ago, when gas stations were very rare and just getting started. The first "drive-in filling station" to pump gasoline into automobiles in the US didn't appear until Dec. 1913 in Pittsburgh, but within 16 years, there were over 121k gas stations across the USA. So EV charging stations are in a similar state, but the increase in numbers of charging stations could expand just as rapidly as gas stations did a century ago. I read today in the Boston Globe that the city of Boston plans to have EV-charging stations in every neighborhood in the city of Boston by 2023.

Some interesting history, taken from Wikipedia and FamilyTree magazine online:

Gasoline was sold right on the sidewalk, causing traffic jams as cars pulled to the side of the road to refuel. Even early businesses devoted solely to selling gasoline—such as the world’s first purpose-built gas station in St. Louis in 1905 or the station Standard Oil opened in Seattle in 1907—relied on curbside pumps. By 1910, when American roads held a half-million automobiles, this began to pose a problem.

The first "drive-in" filling station, Gulf Refining Company, opened to the motoring public in Pittsburgh on December 1, 1913, at Baum Boulevard and St Clair's Street. Prior to this, automobile drivers pulled into almost any general or hardware store, or even blacksmith shops in order to fill up their tanks. On its first day, the station sold 30 gallons of gasoline at 27 cents per gallon. This was also the first architect-designed station and the first to distribute free road maps.

Seeking a competitive edge and new revenue, stations expanded beyond filling up customers’ tanks. Initially, there was little market for other automotive services, since Fords were designed for easy owner maintenance; every Ford came with a “grease cup” so the driver could lubricate his own car. As General Motors began to pass Ford in sales, however, “greasing palaces” were added to gas stations. Sinclair opened the first three stations equipped with lubrication equipment in 1926.

By 1929, the US census counted 121,513 filling stations (enumerated as “service stations” after 1948), totaling nearly $1.8 billion in sales.

 

[dbsb3233]

One major different though. Back then we were talking about a massive leap in transportation capability for individuals. Before the automobile, it was either train or horse. The automobile represented a whole new dramatic leap in personal transportation compared to the alternative. Thus justifying such dramatic growth in gas stations.

Now however, it doesn't represent any new transportation capability at all. It's still an automobile, with the same capabilities of an ICE automobile. It's simply an alternate type of fuel and refueling. The alternative still exists (gasoline vehicles). Thus the justification for adding anywhere near as many refueling stations isn't nearly as strong as it was then, to enable a dramatic leap in capability.

We'll still see charging station growth, of course, but I wouldn't compare it to gas station growth.

 

[TheSteelRider]

One major different though. Back then we were talking about a massive leap in transportation capability for individuals. Before the automobile, it was either train or horse. The automobile represented a whole new dramatic leap in personal transportation compared to the alternative. Thus justifying such dramatic growth in gas stations.

Now however, it doesn't represent any new transportation capability at all. It's still an automobile, with the same capabilities of an ICE automobile. It's simply an alternate type of fuel and refueling. The alternative still exists (gasoline vehicles). Thus the justification for adding anywhere near as many refueling stations isn't nearly as strong as it was then, to enable a dramatic leap in capability.

We'll still see charging station growth, of course, but I wouldn't compare it to gas station growth.

Not only that, but back then nobody had any way to "fill up" their gas tanks at their house, by that I mean, it wasn't like every house had plumbing coming into them feeding them gas.

Contrast that to today's EVs ... _every homeowner_ has their own "gas station" if you will in their home (e.g., their wall socket providing 110V / 220V), and even better the electricity coming from these sockets is essentially (to the homeowner point of view) infinite amounts of electricity.

I personally do not foresee a world where there ends up being as many or more charging stations as their are gas stations today, it just isn't necessary when everyone can "fill up their tank" at home, in the comfort of their own garage whilst they sleep at night.

 

[dbsb3233]

Not only that, but back then nobody had any way to "fill up" their gas tanks at their house, by that I mean, it wasn't like every house had plumbing coming into them feeding them gas.

Contrast that to today's EVs ... _every homeowner_ has their own "gas station" if you will in their home (e.g., their wall socket providing 110V / 220V), and even better the electricity coming from these sockets is essentially (to the homeowner point of view) infinite amounts of electricity.

I personally do not foresee a world where there ends up being as many or more charging stations as their are gas stations today, it just isn't necessary when everyone can "fill up their tank" at home, in the comfort of their own garage whilst they sleep at night.

Exactly. 98% of all charging should be at people's homes (or maybe workplace), not at retail stations. So the demand for retail charging stations will be a tiny fraction of what there is for gas stations.

The revenue stream will be much smaller too. A gas station pump can service 10-20 customers every hour. While an electric charging station can only service maybe two per hour (because of long charging times). Granted, the costs are less too, but still, the slow revenue stream won't have companies rushing to jump into the retail charging station business anytime soon.

 

[JamieGeek]

You won't know until you actually try a trip with your Mach-E. Until that point its all speculation.

In our case I try to take the Bolt on any drive we make (its a lease put the miles on the lease, its the most efficient car, its fun, etc.). Sure we have two other ICE vehicles (wife's, son's) and for those really long trips we take the RV and tow a car (more recently that car has also been the Bolt).

On the whole, however, I've taken about a dozen trips that are greater than the battery range and would require at least one charge somewhere (supporting everyone's thought that: yes 99.9% of my charging is at home; this was a lot harder with the Focus as there was no DCFC's and it could only go 70 miles--we just found a mall and wandered for an hour or so). It just takes some planning and a little bit of patience. So you have to wait 15-20 minutes at a charger; guess what: it goes by faster than you think...

Also note that at the rate EA is adding chargers there will be around another 200 more DCFC's available by the time the Mach-E is ready.

 

[cometguy]

A good third of households in the USA do not have garages in which to charge an EV (think apartment dwellers). Lots of car owners today cannot charge at their home overnight. So widespread public charging will be a necessity before BEVs can become a majority-purchased vehicle in the US. And given that most cars sold are used cars, when you add in the public-charging problems, it's hard to see that BEVs will become a majority on the streets (vs. ICEVs) before about 2040 or even 2050.

So it will be interesting to see how the used-car market for BEVs plays out this coming decade, as more used BEVs become available for purchase by those many people who can't afford to buy new cars. I suspect that the majority of people who can't afford to buy new cars also don't own garages. But for those who can afford to buy BEVs and can charge at home every night, public charging simply won't be a huge issue because most of them will retain at least one additional vehicle that has an ICE for longer road trips. I think that the auto industry need to focus more on educating the public about this: that BEVs are really much better than ICEVs for local driving if you can charge at home. I never hear this touted by automakers or the press.

 

[dbsb3233]

A good third of households in the USA do not have garages in which to charge an EV (think apartment dwellers). Lots of car owners today cannot charge at their home overnight. So widespread public charging will be a necessity before BEVs can become a majority-purchased vehicle in the US.

I've made this same point before, but arrived at a slighly different conclusion. You're absolutely right that a large portion (I'd guess more than half) of Americans don't have a house with a garage. And thus usually not a place for dedicated overnight charging.

But to me that doesn't mean they'll usually be relying on retail L3 charging stations, it means they'll usually just stick with ICE vehicles. It just doesn't make much sense to get a BEV if you can't do at least 95% of your charging overnight at home (or maybe at work) on a dependable, secure, L2 outlet. As such, we agree that it'll be decades before they become most of the cars on the streets (if ever).

The ideal scenario for BEV ownership is someone with a house and a garage, with a 2nd ICE vehicle. Which as it turns out mostly describes the suburbs.

I've also said that instead of focusing on putting retail charging stations all over cities, they need to put those on the highways for travelers (not locals). But what's also needed is better charging options AT HOME for apartment and condo complexes. A retail station a mile away means a half hour wait to recharge every few days, and most people don't want to put up with that vs a 3-minute gas fill-up once a week. Life will get in the way. Without dependable overnight charging, most will just buy ICE instead.

 

[JamieGeek]

The Focus Electric forums had one very disgruntled owner because they lived in an apartment and the 70ish mile range of the Focus wasn't nearly enough for him. He frequently found himself waiting around at a local level 2 charger. I think he ended up getting rid of the car.

Eventually building codes will change (I think some California cities already have) that any new building needs to have provisions for a charger (we had other form members that were able to work with their management to get a charger installed--that works better for people in condominiums because they can just work with the association).

Retail charging is good for the short range EVs (early Leaf's, Focus Electrics, 500e's, etc.) but not so useful when ranges are 200+ miles.

Living in the Detroit area: The Focus Electric allowed us to go to some local malls and downtown once in a while (had to charge downtown). With the Bolt I now can pretty much go anywhere in the metro area and get back without needing to charge (as an example: with the Bolt I can make it from the Airport (Southwest of Detroit) to Port Huron and back (140 miles round trip) without needing a charge).

 

[dbsb3233]

Retail charging is good for the short range EVs (early Leaf's, Focus Electrics, 500e's, etc.) but not so useful when ranges are 200+ miles.

And that's why BEVs are about to take the leap from niche to mainstream. Some hardcore enthusiasts were willing to put up with the compromises needed for a 70 mile battery (or had short enough daily commutes to always charge at home). But that was only a few% of the public. For the other 98% is was just too much compromise.

230+ mile range now boosts that to mainstream territory. Probably 30% of the market is now opened up to BEVs being a good fit without requiring too much compromise, for a daily commute car.

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