ARK

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I guess that’s great for the used car market but by the time I’d reach 1000 or 2000+ cycles I personally probably wouldn’t have my vehicle anymore. As great as it is to have a vehicle that can update, being a tech person I’m also aware that every few years or so there’s going to be a major upgrade somewhere that doesn’t apply to older vehicles and I’ll want to have a newer vehicle for that tech and the fact that it’s newer and most likely more reliable (from the perspective of new vs old).
It’s definitely a different part of the market but high used prices for your car definitely help you financially. Even if you only lease a vehicle, if it is established that the brand retains a higher used value, your lease ends up being cheaper, so it still impacts you.

And of course if you own it, you take less of a depreciation hit when you sell after a few years.
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Dave-O

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LFP Teslas in Canada have had reduced acceleration during the cold-spells we have had, and it's generally a safety issue when trying to merge onto the highway. It's also generally annoying to purchase a vehicle that touts performance and get sub-optimal performance for half the year.
Tesla’s with LFP packs are specifically not touted for performance. They are the “El Cheapo” models.
 

Guss-E 2021

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Sorry, this is Ford trying to appease its shareholders about gross profits margins and EPS. Better?
 

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I guess that’s great for the used car market but by the time I’d reach 1000 or 2000+ cycles I personally probably wouldn’t have my vehicle anymore. As great as it is to have a vehicle that can update, being a tech person I’m also aware that every few years or so there’s going to be a major upgrade somewhere that doesn’t apply to older vehicles and I’ll want to have a newer vehicle for that tech and the fact that it’s newer and most likely more reliable (from the perspective of new vs old).
Agreed, 1000 cycles on an ER battery and you are approaching 300,000 miles. Even with an SR, you are over 200,000.
 

phidauex

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Interesting to see the new specs, glad to see some more options on the battery front. I suspect the main reasons are cost and availability - the battery market is currently deeply oversold on capacity for the next few years, you take what you can get.

A few notes on LFP from the stationary/grid energy storage world… One is that they aren’t necessarily safer. The chemistry itself is less prone to thermal runaway, but the push for cheaper manufacturing means they are often more susceptible to defects in the winding assembly, which can short to fires. South Korea had a string of battery fires over the last few years, and most of the fires were on LFP systems. The chemistry is helpful, but there is a lot more to battery assembly that will impact safety.

The capacity retention thing is interesting to me - it does NOT pan out that way for stationary applications, where we see very similar cycle life between LFP and NMC/NCM. It is true that LFP has a flatter curve, but with a steeper initial drop.

They will still need a low SOC buffer, LFP cells have a flatter voltage curve, but a steeper drop at the end of the curve, so the last few percent of SOC can disappear faster than you think.
 


tannerk89

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here are some reasons EV makers are switching to LFP batteries.
https://www.engineering.com/story/why-ev-manufacturers-are-switching-from-nmc-to-lfp-batteries

Retained capacity over time is a big deal...


1676423389492.png
From that graph, if I’m interpreting it correctly, it is saying after 250k-300k miles on an ER NMC battery it should be around 85-90% SOC. I’m completely ok with that especially considering the major performance, cold weather, and range difference between the two. There’s also a large buffer on the Mach-E so impact to driver sounds like it will be minimal for the life expectancy of the car.
 

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So just to understand it, is the LFP battery able to store the same amount as the SR lion battery, but it's probably the size and weight of the ER battery? Does that mean there can't/won't be an ER version of the LFP battery?
 

Auto Motive

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Electrek was able to grab a snapshot of the new Mach-E LFP battery pack specs, so we can do some analysis:

image-14.png


Source: https://electrek.co/2023/02/13/ford...lfp-battery-factory-with-chinas-catl-in-2026/

This may still be preliminary, but 78 kWh is quite a bit more than I was expecting considering LFP has an energy density that is only about 65% of NCM. I would expect about 90% of that to be usable, so about 70 kWh, which makes it virtually the same size as the current standard range pack. Looks like they are going to use 225 Ah prismatic cells:

ford-battery-4-jpg.jpg


ford-battery-2-jpg.jpg


These are made by CATL, so we can look at the specs of their other similar offerings. The 225 Ah size may be specially made for Ford.

Here is a taller 302 Ah cell: https://www.evlithium.com/catl-battery-cell/catl-302ah.html

Screen Shot 2023-02-14 at 10.41.03 AM.png


Based on this, the Mach-E pack is likely going to be 108 cells in series, with an operating voltage between 270V and 394V, about 346V nominal which is similar to the current packs.

We can also guess what the charging curve will be like based on those specs. The charging curve allows a C rate of up to 1.0, which would be 225A. The specs allow that rate basically from 0%, so the LFP should be capable of a sustained charging rate of about 72-88 kW (gradually increasing with time) during the first 80% of the DCFC session, provided the temps are in spec. Above 80% the charge rate can drop and maintain 0.8C, which would be about 70 kW (tapering down with time) to 100%. The peak rate will likely be higher during an initial "boost" period similar to the current charging curve (perhaps 1.5C or 130 kW).

The cells must be at least 20ºC to achieve that rate, so hopefully Ford steps up their battery heating game here to compensate, otherwise we will see some very slow charging sessions in the cold. Specs do not allow any charging or regen while the cells are below freezing (0ºC). So these will not be a good choice for cold climates unless Ford adds another battery heater and improves the heating strategy to always keep the battery above 0ºC.

Continuous power is limited to 1C rate, which would be about 78 kW or 105 HP. That may be doubled for short periods, so 156 kW or 210 HP. Likely less than the current 266 HP. Which will translate to an increased 0-60 time of perhaps 7-8 seconds.

In summary (preliminary guesses):
  • New LFP pack will likely be around 70 kWh usable, same range as current standard pack
  • DCFC speed will be around 72-88 kW to 80%
  • Speed at 80% will not cliff as much as current NCM pack, should taper down from 70 kW
  • Will not charge in cold weather unless heated above 0ºC
  • Not recommended if you live where it gets below -5ºC/23ºF for very long
  • Will require a better heating strategy than we have now to avoid abysmal charge rates
  • Likely less power, 0-60 time in 7-8 second range?
    • Acceleration will be worse when battery is cold
Now we know why they are less expensive to produce with lesser value in bottom line vin user experience. Glad we havecctge 2021 model.
 

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So just to understand it, is the LFP battery able to store the same amount as the SR lion battery, but it's probably the size and weight of the ER battery? Does that mean there can't/won't be an ER version of the LFP battery?
I think you are confusing longevity with overall vehicle range. You can make an LFP battery have the same energy capacity as a NCM battery pack, so both the SR and ER energy capacity size are possible. LFP batteries for the Mach E need a little more space, so the void under the seats from 21/22 Mach E vehicles with SR battery packs is being used for the SR LFP batteries 23 Mach E.
 
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So just to understand it, is the LFP battery able to store the same amount as the SR lion battery, but it's probably the size and weight of the ER battery? Does that mean there can't/won't be an ER version of the LFP battery?
Yes. The LFP battery will take up all the available space (and might even weigh more than the extended range pack), so it won't be possible to make a 90 kWh LFP pack fit in the Mach-E because of the lower energy density.
 

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The sheer number of 2012-2014 Model S battery failures should hint to people that 8-10 years is about the expected lifetime of NMC/NCA batteries and not much more.
Is there more data on this? All I hear from Tesla folks is that the older cars are doing great.
 

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This is my dilemma because I look at the economics of an EV which is 30-40% more expensive vs an equivalent size ICe, I would need to drive an EV much longer to get my money's worth.
 

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sotek2345

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This is my dilemma because I look at the economics of an EV which is 30-40% more expensive vs an equivalent size ICe, I would need to drive an EV much longer to get my money's worth.
What EV is 30% to 40% more expensive than the ICE equivalent? 20% used to be the stated number, but even that is high for many (equivalent) models. What ICE make/model would you consider the equal to the Mach-e? For our GT I can think of the Jeep SRT Trackhawk or maybe the Porche Macan GTS both of which are more expensive and have much higher operating costs.

I actually did a pretty detailed comparison for my Lightning vs. a equally equipped ICE F150 Lariat and it was within $1,000 purchase price. And that is for a truck with much lower performance numbers.
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