Will Tesla still lead the BEV market in 3-5 years?

[Jferrari427]

I give Tesla a lot of credit for pushing forward the BEV market as a whole, they took it mainstream. Tesla was first to mainstream market, doesn’t mean they’ll be number 1 forever.

As almost all manufacturers now are pushing the BEV trend, do you think Tesla will still be the leader in 3-5 years in terms of sales volume?

IMO I don’t think so. Most manufacturers will have at least 5 BEVs+ (likely in 3-5 years) in their lineup giving consumers a ton of great options. I think Tesla will shrink compared to the mass flood of BEVs coming down the pipeline.

It’ll be interesting to see how this rapidly changing market evolve.

What do you think?

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[Blue highway]

well... first off BYD is now the global leader in terms of EV cars sold, not Tesla.

Tesla is using the Model T playbook...

• limited options (they only make 2 models in any kind of volume)
• drive down cost of manufacture as a competitive advantage - de contenting is a factor
  • the v4 system is de-contented from the v3 system... less Ram etc.
  • no ultrasonic sensors
  • no radar
• Reduce prices to maintain volumes over time.

There could be a Model T outcome.

• Competitors offer more options and share eventually erodes.... I'd like SXM radio, I'd like an instrument panel... etc.

They are going to be dominant for a "long time"... but a "long time" in the car industry is only a decade.

 

[RedStallion]

Tesla is losing market share in every market.

 

[superdave80]

In the US, I think they will probably still be the 'leader' (as far as total vehicles sold) compared to the other large auto-makers, but it will probably be a very narrow gap between them and the next 2-4 auto-makers.

 

[zvez]

NOPE, because people now have a choice and with the big manufacturers getting involved they'll eventually dominate.

 

[nvabill]

Yes, absolutely, it certainly won’t be Ford with their quality control issues!

 

[RickMachE]

I don't think so. The lack of competition has allowed Tesla to make blah looking vehicles with features promised, paid for, but never delivered, and run by someone that has issues. I fully expect that Tesla will fall to the back of the pack within 3 - 4 years.

 

[Jferrari427]

I don't think so. The lack of competition has allowed Tesla to make blah looking vehicles with features promised, paid for, but never delivered, and run by someone that has issues. I fully expect that Tesla will fall to the back of the pack within 3 - 4 years.

I wouldn’t be surprised either. Quick to rise, quick to fall.

 

[RickMachE]

I wouldn’t be surprised either. Quick to rise, quick to fall.

It will be blamed on injuries sustained by The Might Zuck. ?

 

[Jferrari427]

well... first off BYD is now the global leader in terms of EV cars sold, not Tesla.

Tesla is using the Model T playbook...

• limited options (they only make 2 models in any kind of volume)
• drive down cost of manufacture as a competitive advantage - de contenting is a factor
  • the v4 system is de-contented from the v3 system... less Ram etc.
  • no ultrasonic sensors
  • no radar
• Reduce prices to maintain volumes over time.

There could be a Model T outcome.

• Competitors offer more options and share eventually erodes.... I'd like SXM radio, I'd like an instrument panel... etc.

They are going to be dominant for a "long time"... but a "long time" in the car industry is only a decade.

Great points here…this is the most likely/rational/logical scenario. I don’t see Tesla leading for much longer.

 

[thekat03]

In 3-5 years? Probably, but their lead will probably be much smaller. In 5-10 years, it will be anyone's game.

 

[KevinS]

They are pumping out cars, but their service center/vehicle ratio isn't good.

If they get hit with a massive recall requirement due to a physical manufacturing defect that can't be solved by a software update alone, they'll have problems on their hands.

The lack of service centers in my area kept me from considering one when I started shopping for an EV in 2021.

 

[67 Stang Convertible]

Yes, absolutely, it certainly won’t be Ford with their quality control issues!

As opposed to TESLA's quality control??? Hello Panel Gaps, squeaks and rattles!!!

 

[SWO]

well... first off BYD is now the global leader in terms of EV cars sold, not Tesla.

That figure is a little deceptive, isn't it? Aren't most of them basically go-carts?

 

[Blue highway]

That figure is a little deceptive, isn't it? Aren't most of them basically go-carts?

go carts? absolutely not... google BYD cars. You will be surprised.

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