Will Tesla still lead the BEV market in 3-5 years?

[Mach1E]

Unlike you, I don’t live on a racetrack. I live in the real world where pot holes, bumps and speed traps are all over. Mach-E is needlessly heavy and bouncy as fuck. But you enjoy.

Good news is magneride is great for the track and the street.

Sounds like you bought the wrong vehicle.

And “handling” is what you said, but now you are talking about “ride quality.” Not sure what point you’re trying to make other than some inaccurate jabs against my car.

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[GreaseMonkey]

“Probably around….”

Everyone else says probably around 75, so who knows?

So enlighten me: The two vehicles have almost identical dimensions. Why is the Mach-E 400 lbs heavier?

Oh, I get it. It’s the rear wiper! I knew that sucker weighed a ton.

 

[RedStallion]

Tesla isn't doing too good in EU, has been behind WV Group since 2020. They are now competing with Stellantis for the second place. As competition offering more cars they take away Tesla market share making Tesla a predominantly Chinese brand.

 

[GreaseMonkey]

Good news is magneride is great for the track and the street.

Sounds like you bought the wrong vehicle.

And “handling” is what you said, but now you are talking about “ride quality.” Not sure what point you’re trying to make other than some inaccurate jabs against my car.

I didn’t buy the wrong vehicle. I bought the trim that makes sense to me and my lifestyle. I have no interest in a boy racer with a 5-sec power limit. If I needed to go fast, I would have gotten a real sports car (which precludes anything with the name Mustang).

And I don’t know you or know anything about you. So I have no reason to take jabs against “your car”. Clearly I’m hitting a nerve, so we should stop, no?

 

[Mach1E]

I didn’t buy the wrong vehicle. I bought the trim that makes sense to me and my lifestyle. I have no interest in a boy racer with a 5-sec power limit. If I needed to go fast, I would have gotten a real sports car (which precludes anything with the name Mustang associated with it).

And I don’t know you or know anything about you. So I have no reason to take jabs against “your car”. Clearly I’m hitting a nerve, so we should stop, no?

Lol, I’m so not taking this personal.

I said “my car” because I have a GTPE and you don’t.

You said it handles like shit, is bouncy, etc.

My point? Mine doesn’t and isn’t.

I think you bought the wrong car because all your criticisms actually do apply to YOUR car. Clearly you aren’t happy.

 

[GreaseMonkey]

I think you bought the wrong car because all your criticisms actually do apply to YOUR car. Clearly you aren’t happy.

Don’t put words in my mouth. My ability to be objective and give credit when deserved doesn’t mean I’m unhappy. I’m also not blinded by loyalty to Ford and unwavering love for a set of four wheels.

Let’s just leave it at that.

 

[Jferrari427]

Don’t put words in my mouth. My ability to be objective and give credit when deserved doesn’t mean I’m unhappy. I’m also not blinded by loyalty to Ford and unwavering love for a set of four wheels.

Let’s just leave it at that.

“Blinded by the light, revved up like a deuce” ?

 

[Auto Motive]

Tesla is losing market share in every market.

But valuation and total sales worldwide is hitting 1.3 million sold in 2022. Market share 59%.We have a model y and its really nice. But the GTPE is awesome except 5 second limit. Real keeper.

 

[Romano]

Unpopular opinion (FYI - I have owned a Mach-E and now own a Model Y); I think Tesla's dominance will remain for a long period of time.

They're currently the global leader in BEV sales (BYD does not lead in true BEV sales, they report their "electric" car sales numbers inlcuding PHEV's). Their profitability, and thus pricing power, gives them the power to check mate every other car manufacturer.

Apart from a small group of brand loyalist/enthusiast, purchase price and how compelling a product is, is going to be the main driver for consumers to purchase a vehicle. Tesla currently leads, and will continue to lead in this space. Other OEM's are far behind and are simply not able to produce EV's at scale, with similar, or even positive profit margins. They can't keep selling cars at major losses.

Tesla will continue to innovate and keep driving cost down. I think that Model 3 and Y sales will ensure a leading market share for the foreseeable future (2-3 years). With CyberTruck coming and them releasing a mass-market sub $25K vehicle in 2-3 years, this lead will remain.

I expect the market share % to drop from here. Logically, as they had the market to themselves until recently. However, I expect them to stay above 40% or so long term.

 

[MellowJohnny]

I’m going to say Yes for the 3-yr time horizon, but not in 5 yrs, assuming “lead” means >50.1% market share….

 

[RedStallion]

But valuation and total sales worldwide is hitting 1.3 million sold in 2022. Market share 59%.

Valuation is meaningless. Just because there are bubbles in the market it doesn't mean it's an objective measure. Based on Tesla fundamentals it's valuation should be 10 times lower, which it eventually will be. The majority of Tesla sales is in China, which is a huge market, where Tesla has about 13%. As I already mentioned the Tesla market share is shrinking in every market, if that trend continues (and I don't see the reason why not) it will be a niche manufacturer within a decade.

 

[Jferrari427]

Valuation is meaningless. Just because there are bubbles in the market it doesn't mean it's an objective measure. Based on Tesla fundamentals it's valuation should be 10 times lower, which it eventually will be. The majority of Tesla sales is in China, which is a huge market, where Tesla has about 13%. As I already mentioned the Tesla market share is shrinking in every market, if that trend continues (and I don't see the reason why not) it will be a niche manufacturer within a decade.

Exactly right. First to market doesn’t mean, or equate to “out on top. “ Think Blackberry…then the iPhone lol.

 

[Auto Motive]

Don’t put words in my mouth. My ability to be objective and give credit when deserved doesn’t mean I’m unhappy. I’m also not blinded by loyalty to Ford and unwavering love for a set of four wheels.

Exactly right. First to market doesn’t mean, or equate to “out on top. “ Think Blackberry…then the iPhone lol.

Like beta....what....oh VHS. Stock projections on tesla is $1500 in 10 years. Not me but from the experts.

 

[GreaseMonkey]

Exactly right. First to market doesn’t mean, or equate to “out on top. “ Think Blackberry…then the iPhone lol.

I hate to break it to you, but Tesla is the iPhone in this example . We are at the stage where the customer is still demanding buttons, sounds familiar?

 

[Peugfan]

[/QUOTE]

The shape of Model Y is designed to reduce drag vs Mach-E designed to look pretty. I never knew this till you all decided to chime in with your Tesla hate , but there’s quite a difference between the two: MY: 0.23 and MME: 0.30. MME has one of the highest in the modern EV market (SUVs and sedans). Which is why we need 25%

Mach E Cd is 0.285, a lot of websites got that wrong by quoting Ford saying LESS than 0.30. I take Jason at Engineering Explained at his word. Regardless your point stands that Tesla at 0.23 is significantly better. Mach E owners if you give up some styling and lose some frunk space you could have better efficiency.

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